Open Forum

New Delhi, 20 December 2023 

Agricultural Productivity

CUTTING EMISSIONS VITAL

By Dhurjati Mukherjee 

Increasing agricultural productivity is undoubtedly a national goal, more so as India is thinking of emerging as a major producer in this field. With the standard of living improving, the variety in food consumption is also showing a healthy trend. But with the increase in population, the need for higher productivity is critical keeping in view the future requirements. In fact, FAO estimated that by 2050, the world will need to produce almost 50 percent more food, feed and biofuel, than it did in 2012. It projected that feeding a world population of 9.3 billion people in 2050 implied that food production in developing countries must double from that in 2005-07. 

Though this projection may change considering the ground reality and the availability of land and water, which are already stumbling blocks, not just in India but many other nations, production undoubtedly needs a big boost. Climate change may also add significantly to the pressure on availability of natural resources for farming. Additionally, is the crucial factor of reducing emissions and ensuring green strategies in farming, one of the key issues before the just concluded COP28, which wanted reduction “in methane emissions globally” by 2030. This has the potential to impact India severely with its increasing number of livestock and huge paddy cultivation.   

A closer look suggests that the need for increasing yield in a populous country like India was realised long back by the renowned agricultural scientist, Dr M. S. Swaminathan. Agricultural scientists since his time have suggested certain measures which include double cropping, better rotation of crops, fighting plant diseases and pests, etc. However, it may be noted that “productivity enhancing investment in agriculture, however, depends not only on the state of knowledge but also on conditions governing the adoption of technology; it depends on the land tenure system which determines how the agricultural produce is divided between owners of land and agricultural labour; on the terms of trade between agriculture and industry, which determine the relative cheapness of industrial inputs vis-a-vis agricultural produce; and on the level of demand of agricultural produce.” 

Though on the institutional front, the government has been trying in a limited manner to solve the problems of agriculture through land reforms and, on the technological front, a modest beginning has been made in motivating farmers to use of improved implements, seeds, chemicals, manures, etc., much more needs to be done. Small farmers at the grass-root levels need training and support, which regrettably is not forthcoming from the local administration. 

There is a crucial problem in most parts of the country with regard to water, which has been a hindrance to the spread of irrigation facilities and since the time of Dr Swaminathan the need for sustainable agriculture has been emphasised. But productivity increase has been seen as intrinsically opposed to, or at best, in competition with sustainability. The possibility of convergence between higher productivity and environmental sustainability is, no doubt, a vital challenge of the day. 

The tenet of environmental sustainability inevitably necessitates the need for ensuring higher levels of food production without expansion in cropland through deforestation. Thus, resource use efficiency must be the focal point of attention in the coming years as it will be logically impossible to attain food as also nutrition security for a growing population with a sustainable footprint. This has been well understood and, as per available figures, just around 11 percent of the overall increase in crop production in the last half a century can be attributed to the expansion of cropland area.   

The more important aspect is the application of biotechnology, in terms of transgenic technology to breed crops with higher productivity and better resistance to biotic and a biotic shocks. Experts have opined that developments in biotechnology are increasingly being seen as essential to the cause of environmental sustainability, whether in terms of climate change mitigation or the reduced use of nitrogenous fertilizers in growing cereal crops. Though the potential of technology cannot be doubted, the effect on soil fertility remains a big question. 

Another crucial aspect is the nutritional aspect, more so because a considerable part of the Indian population is vegetarian. A recent study found that India’s rice and wheat varieties have lost essential health-friendly minerals and accumulated toxic elements, showing a decline in grain nutrient make-up that they say remained largely neglected. According to the study, the concentration of essential elements including calcium, iron and zinc in grains from present-day cultivated rice and wheat varieties are between 19 to 45 percent lower than in grains from the 1960s. However, present-day wheat grains have lower levels of arsenic and chromium than wheat from the 1960s, as per the study, just published in the journal, Scientific Reports. 

Undoubtedly, the depletion of essential minerals might have adverse health impacts as calcium is needed for bone formation, iron for haemoglobin and zinc for immunity and reproductive and neurological health. Increase in protein consumption is essential and this cannot solely be found in pulses and legumes but also in milk and eggs, which most vegetarians in the country consume. The population, particularly children need to be given more calories, proteins and fat as a move towards providing the population a healthy diet. 

While technology is imperative in boosting productivity, there is need to consider the environmental aspect and synergy with nature. In India, there are innumerable small peasants who have a critical role to play in sustainable agricultural growth through use of natural fertilizers, local production-consumption cycles, energy and technological sovereignty. Indigenous knowledge can be equally effective though not as much as integrative science, but the former could be more sustainably superior if a harmonious relationship has to be developed with nature.  

Though a section of scientists has maintained that many local practices are inefficient, it can very well be said that genetic engineering can be instrumental in preserving some of these practices by upgrading their mechanisms and making them more resource efficient and productive.  In a country like India, where around 60 percent of labour force is dependent on agriculture, there has to be a synergy between biotechnology and genetic engineering, on the one hand, and indigenous knowledge on the other, to ensure environmental sustainability. 

Apart from this, farming can’t be made high cost and capital intensive as a significant section are small farmers and resort to traditional methods of cultivation. Alternative agriculture is no doubt the need of the day, and this must incorporate the country’s traditional knowledge and practices, combined with appropriate low-cost technologies. The policy makers need to keep this in mind along with the backdrop of protecting nature, reducing emissions and ensuring environmental sustainability. A holistic strategy will help in the long run.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Political Diary

New Delhi, 19 December 2023

 Government Vs Opposition

TIME TO BREAK LOGJAM

By Poonam I Kaushish 

It’s the season of surprises with BJP appointing unknown, faceless and low key MLAs as Chief Ministers in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. But the element of bombshell didn’t end there. Shocking scenes were played out in sanitized Parliament’s Lok Sabha when two intruders jumped from the visitor’s gallery into the chamber, desk-hopping, deploying coloured smoke from canisters and raising slogans against authoritarianism till they were overpowered by MPs and House marshals Wednesday 13 December. Succinctly, another security breach reminiscent of the terror attack on Parliament on the same day 2001. 

Predictably all hell broke loose with Opposition’s INDIA bloc demanding Home Minister Shah’s statement on the serious security lapse and Treasury Benches refusing to do so, notwithstanding Speaker Birla making clear “Government cannot intervene in responsibilities of Lok Sabha secretariat’s purview. Security inside House is under me.” Suggesting Government should not be held accountable.

Already, Delhi Police has arrested all 6 culprits and slapped the stringent anti-terror law Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act on them who confessed it was to draw attention to unemployment, farmers issue and Manipur violence. Even as police look into the larger conspiracy behind the incident, their preliminary submission is that the “mastermind” wished to create “anarchy” in the country. 

Naturally this failed to satisfy Opposition resulting in another shocker for them: 78 Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha MPs were suspended yesterday for “misconduct”, staging protests, displaying playcards, rushing in to the well and disobeying Chair’s directions for the remaining part of the winter session which ends Friday. This includes Congress leader of the House, senior TMC, DMK, RJD leaders etc. With 14 suspended last week this totals 92 Right Honourables. 

Certainly, Opposition has a point, “Our demand is Shah make a statement in Parliament but Prime Minister Modi prefers to speak to a newspaper and Home Minister to a TV channel on Parliament’s security breach but refuses  to speak in the House which is the correct forum for them to speak.” 

Prime Minister Modi brushed this aside advising Opposition against any “vaad-vivaad” (debate) or “pratirodh” (protest) over the breach. “The gravity of the incident should not be underestimated. Speaker has been taking steps needed with all seriousness….Investigative agencies are inquiring strictly. Let investigations be completed before any discussion is held. Efforts should be made to look for a solution with a collective spirit,” appearing to suggest the Opposition should suspend its protests. 

BJP added its two bits by trying to connect some of the protestors to political outfits arrayed with Opposition and with at least one of them having earlier participated in demonstrations against farm laws. 

But the Opposition refused to heed and obtusely continues to display lung power, accusing the Government of shunning debate to escape questions over role of the BJP Parliamentarian   who recommended the two canister-carrying youths secure Lok Sabha passes to the visitors’ gallery. 

Questionably, it stands to reason that before Parliament debate the breach our Right Honourables should study the findings of the investigation committee set up by the Home Ministry. The break-in calls for an informed debate whereby security concerns of all members can be addressed.

Certainly, protests within and outside Parliament are legitimate but this is not to make a case for boorish or unruly behaviour in both Houses of Parliament. By refusing to do so, tantamounts to dereliction of duty as it is an avoidable confrontation. As MPs they owe it to their constituents to discuss, debate and legislate issues of vital interest to them. For even as Opposition have their say, Government has its way. 

Besides, even as INDIA block displays its lung power amidst shouts of dictatorship, bulldozing Opposition and death of democracy, they fail to remember 15 March 1989 when 63 lawmakers were suspended from Parliament during Congress Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi era over tabling of the Justice Thakkar Commission of Inquiry on Indira Gandhi’s assassination. 

With more than 400 MPs, the Congress Government then enjoyed a brute majority, much like BJP now. The only difference being then the suspension was for three days, today it for remainder of Parliament’s session. Remarked a senior BJP leader acidly, “If Congress claims that suspension of its MPs is a black day for democracy, who set the 89 benchmark?” 

What next? Amidst the continuing logjam and penchant for notching up brownie points, all conveniently brush under the carpet that Parliament is a sacred symbol of our democracy. Any violation of its dignity is a serious issue. The onus is on both Government and Opposition to ensure smooth running of both Houses. 

Further, floor managers of both sides need to reach a compromise so that Parliament can function smoothly.  This can happen only in a climate of mutual trust and bonhomie which is sadly, absent today. Time for our MPs to realize their key job is to legislate. More so, as crucial Bills like the three Criminal Procedure Code Bills are to be debated and passed this session. 

Remember, Parliamentary democracy does not begin and end with elections, it’s a continuous process that carries on in the House and, in collaboration with Opposition. The electorate takes a cue from Parliament. A House that functions in a healthy atmosphere of dialogue, dissent and debate sends out a positive message to people. 

It remains to be seen if obstructionism will continue and whether our polity will continue to drift along smugly without any shame, desire to turn a new page. Of late one sees Treasury Benches passing crucial bills thanks to Opposition providing a perfect escape by creating pandemonium. With the functioning of Parliament costing Rs 2.5 lakhs per minute our Right Honourbles need to be sternly told they cannot squander aam jantas’ money. 

The time has come for all MPs to see how they can strengthen Parliamentary democracy before people begin to mock them. One way is that on policy matters and legislative business Treasury and Opposition Benches rise above sectarian political loyalties and be guided by what the country needs, the sense of the House than the rule book. 

Another is to make the Executive accountable by taking a leaf out of Westminster. The House of Commons has a-40 minutes a week “PM’s Hour” convention wherein MPs can question him on any issue. 

It needs to be remembered that Parliament is the bedrock of our nation State. It represents citizens who expect it to function as the sovereign watchdog of their national interest. Constitutionally, the Executive is responsible and accountable to Parliament every second of the day. Its survival depends on its enjoying the confidence of the Lok Sabha. Nothing more, nothing less. 

With sharp battle lines between Treasury and Opposition if this distrust continues it will only further devalue Parliament and lower its image. Thus, our leaders need to heed voices of reason. Tying up Parliament in trivia, sans business does not behove the world’s largest democracy. Time to change the rules to ensure accountability. 

The value of this session will be gauged by its success in moving the national conversation forward. As leader of the world’s largest democracy Modi needs to remember a good statesman always learns from his opposition than from his supporters.  Alongside our Opposition MPs must introspect about what kind of legacy they are going to leave behind. Will they allow Parliament to sink under the weight of its increasing decadence? ---- INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Economic Highlights

New Delhi, 27 November 2023

Bengal Rises To 6^th Rank

GDP SURGES TO $212 bn

By Shivaji Sarkar 

Is West Bengal on a trajectory of growth? Is it belying allegations of a laggard state? May be. Ranked sixth on the development index, West Bengal is surprisingly having investments in all its global summits during the past few years. It has claimed to have implemented $121 billion of $190 billion promised in different meets. 

The state has one of the finest growth rates at 8.41 percent and is continuing to contribute to India’s $3 trillion economy with its GDP touching $212 billion or Rs 17.5 lakh crore and per capita GDP of Rs 1.41 lakh.The last six investment meets surprisingly have added to a different dimension. Called Bengal Global Business Summits, these got the state bonanza, contrary to a general belief that Bengal no more attracts the business community.Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows are at $53,356 million between March and June 2023. During 2020-23 the total FDI inflow was $155.784 million. 

It was over a century ago that social reformer and politician Gopal Krishna Gokhale said, “What Bengal thinks today, India thinks tomorrow”. Somewhere after the Partition amid myriad political developments Bengal lost the edge with problems of central funding to flight of capital due to a bloodied history. 

Additionally, the change of central rule to BJP witnessed an intense clash of egos to violent blows between its supporters and the TMC. Has it not thawed West Bengal?Perhaps not. In June, the panchayat elections witnessed severe violence, seizure of 20,000 licensed weapons, loss of at least 50 lives, many from TMC and a spectacular victory for it. Inexplicable! Even the Opposition is violent. 

True. According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, an NGO based in the US, the state recorded 3,338 incidents of political violence, including political murders, between 2016 and July 2023, the highest number of any state except militancy-riven Jammu and Kashmir. This is despite the fact that it is much lower than in the vast and lawless nearby states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. 

Political violence has not stopped West Bengal from going ahead. Before independence and till mid 1960s it was leading the industrial development. A little over a decade back Trinamool Congress of Mamata Banerjee rode to power with the opposition of CPM inviting the Tatas to set up the Nano car plant at Singur, over farmland. Many consider that to be a loss and others a step forward to free it from the communists. 

It has not thawed the growth of West Bengal though political foes say it is slow. May be. But one grace that the state has, unlike many others is that its middle and small units (MSMEs) are still thriving. The state is home to 90 lakh MSME units employing 1.3 crore people. It also has a large leather manufacturing complex, which is being expanded to be the biggest in Asia apart from a vibrant IT hub. 

Kolkata, rather the erstwhile international Calcutta, remains one of the fastest growing real estate hubs. It is considered the most liveable cities with the lowest cost of living and a vibrant culture and cuisine. Its eating hubs and restaurants are big draws. The increase in Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) is almost four times, revenue grew almost four times, the total budget has increased about 3.8 times, and capital expenditure has grown nine times, says Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee at a global meet. 

State tax collection has doubled in four years, while spending on infrastructure has tripled and deficits are down, she says. The statistics show that per capita income grew nearly 13 percent in real terms last year in West Bengal, compared with an all-India increase of 6 percent.The total state’s tax revenue as per the budget estimates for 2023-24 is slated to increase by 12.69 per cent to Rs 88,595.54 crore from Rs 79,5000 crore in estimates for 2022-23, according to a PRS analysis. A decade back, in 2013, it was Rs 41000 crore. 

Mamata Banerjee has cancelled the letter of intent for Tajpur deep sea port to a leading industrialist group, the Adanis. She says it would be given to some new bidder.Many others offer to invest in the state. Reliance Industries Chairman Mukesh Ambani has decided to invest Rs 20,000 crore in three years. The company has already invested Rs 45,000 crore. The new investments are in telecom, bio-energy and retail. The Reliance Foundation has taken up a project to renovate the Kalighat Temple as well as it has taken over the hold of its trust. 

Many others like the JK organisation decide to return to West Bengal, says Harsh Pati Singhania, Vice-Chairman and Managing Director of JK Paper. They are setting up a dairy project. The JK organisation was returning to West Bengal, he said, while announcing new dairy project in Kharagpur. 

West Bengalsays Banerjee has faltered because of the difficult conditions in the 1960s and 1970s. “But now there is resurgence. Investments are flowing in, and there is an industrial upsurge.” Apart from a slew of domestic companies, 35 countries joined the BGBS this year. Of these 17 countries have been chosen as partner countries, including the UK, Australia, Germany, Japan, France, South Korea, Malaysia, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Poland, Republic, Kenya, Rwanda and Fiji. 

The state unveils five new policies – West Bengal Logistics Policy, WB Internet Cable Landing Station Policy, WB Export Promotion Policy, WB Green Hydrogen Policy, and WB New and Renewable Energy Manufacturing Promotion Policy. It is trying for a big push in the maritime sector with the two planned major ports of Tajpur and Kulpi. It has the largest warehousing capacity in eastern part of the country as well as claims to have the second-largest cold storage capacity in the country. With transports like rail, and shipping routes opening through Bangladesh, the state is also catering to the trade and businesses of the North-East. Connections planned to Sittwe port in Myanmar, its trade from Kolkata and Haldia are supposed to increase. 

Despite its political conflicts, West Bengal’s debt-GSDP as per a Niti Ayog survey has come down to below 34 percent from 41.9 percent in 2010-11. The fiscal deficit scenario is also improving from 4.2 percent in 2011 to 2.96 percent. The state is making strides, aiming at getting back its 30 percent industrial share of India, as it was at the time of independence. There is no looking back. ----INFA 

                                                         (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Economic Highlights

New Delhi, 18 December 2023

MP Meat Ban Disturbing

CAN RISK GLOBAL BIZ

By Shivaji Sarkar 

The new Union Budget will be tabled in less than two months from now and is supposed to pave the course of the biggest popular electoral process in the world. In a rising world inflationary situation and uncertainties all around in West Asia to Europe, would India be able to keep off the difficult realities amid the US Fed move to cut rates? 

More than that some decisions such as the Madhya Pradesh government banning egg and meat product sales could have serious repercussions. If it becomes the norm also in other states like Rajasthan or Chhattisgarh, the country may goo though a difficult phase. 

India being the highest seller of buffalo and other meat products would be having a dichotomy. In Madhya Pradesh alone there are 60 producers who export rabbit, crab, emu, chicken, pork, buffalo and a variety of other meat products. Would they be functioning? If they are made to shut down, India’s global business phenomenon could be treated as fickle paving way for flight of capital. 

The new syndrome could lead to law and order and difficult business-oriented phenomenon. Number of non-vegetarians are high. Most tribals are meat eaters. There could be law and order problems apart from clandestine sales and smuggling. Rent seeking could be high. Perhaps in lure of propaganda for flaunting religiosity, the new leaders have barged on to an uncharted course. The central government has been making efforts to increase all sorts of exports, which are seeing a decline for some time. 

This might aggravate the US rate-cut syndrome and impact the budgetary process. In normal circumstances it is expected to pour in the US and western funding. Besides, it would also depend on how the Israel-Hamas situation impacts overall the US monetary movements. It is raising losses for Israel in terms of casualties and a daily loss of an estimated $269 million. The heavy assaults in Gaza have its own repercussions. The businesses are suffering in Israel and its economy heads for contraction. Its political repercussions are not easy to predict, particularly in a year that the US heads for polls and sustains many of the losses of Israel. 

India, of late, has been seeking closer ties with Israel. Haifa port investments by the Adani group is considered strategic for financial gains and diplomatic clout. Besides, the disturbed West Asia has so far almost jettisoned the India-Europe Middle East trade corridor that was to pass through the region. It could have benefitted Indian companies immensely. 

The rate-cut was expected to lead to higher US investments in India and softening of the dollar. Each year that hope has been belied with dollar getting more expensive vis a vis rupee adding additional costs on Indian imports and higher forex outgo. On exports, it fetches fewer dollars. Outgo has increased on both counts. 

Despite petroleum prices falling, India has not been able to pass on the benefit to consumers. The rupee outgo has increased and cannot sail through even a softer international fuel price regime as dollar remains firm and hovers over Rs 83. It’s servicing on external debt of $629.1 billion is increasing.

The US dollar-denominated debt remained the largest component of India’s external debt, with a share of 54.4 per cent at end-June 2023, followed by debt denominated in the Indian rupee (30.4 per cent), SDR (5.9 per cent), yen (5.7 per cent), and the euro (3.0 per cent). 

India’s “Vikasit Bharat” narrative has led to demand for higher debt. The government says it was investing in the growth of India. Inflation was 7.4 percent in July and in November it is at 5.8 percent, a little below the Reserve Bank of India tolerance range of 6.5 percent. This means prices may go up further in normal domestic situation. If international situation worsens it would add to the pains of budgetary process. 

Surprise was the growth at 7.6 percent in the second quarter. It also sees rise in wholesale price index rising after a seven-month thaw. The concerns over rising prices are on the minds of the policymakers. Pulses and cereals denote significant rise in CPI food basket. Quite a few items’ prices such as onion, ginger, and garlic are rising continuously. Despite the ban on wheat exports, the prices have risen by about 25 percent. On the contrary, the farmers are not getting remunerative prices. 

The meat ban could increase “illicit sales” or smuggling of meat products, particularly in urban areas. Higher rents would add to inflation, costs on policing and harassment of business couriers vitiating the social atmosphere. All this increases costs and may lead to rework the budgetary process. 

If there are social disturbances, as the Lok Sabha election approaches nearer, Indian companies, renowned for their resilience and adaptability, creating opportunities amid global challenges, may get into a financial morass. It could also affect the ability to innovate, leverage technology, and respond swiftly.Such prudery also affects international business companies. Alarmed by such moves they might take decisions to postpone investments despite the additional finances likely to be available to the US investors. 

The changed milieu could create a stickiness that the US is trying to overcome. International community keeps a close watch on socio-political developments. An awry politico-social phenomenon in one part may have wider ramifications. The Manipur crisis has yet to subside. Mizoram has voted in a different way and the new BJP states are acting differently. These may not be considered welcome indicators by many global players, who are intrigued by increasing ethnic disturbances at different places. 

Global disruptions in supply chains, accentuated by events like the trade tensions between major economies, have prompted a reassessment of manufacturing and supply chain strategies. Indian companies, particularly in sectors like electronics, textiles, and pharmaceuticals, may have to drastically diversify or relocate to ensure they remain profitable. 

The inauguration of the Ram temple in Ayodhya is being seen as a jubilant phase in the society. If it gives rise to prudery, it might have undesirable impact on the ease of doing business. It is hoped that it might end in a whimper and would not majorly change the business syndrome. 

Any aberration could alter the business course. The leadership has to be pragmatic so that the economy thrives and does not get into a whirlpool that could disrupt economy, finance and political stability. Steering it deftly is the need of the hour.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)