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Economic Highlights
J&K Economy Paces Up: GSDP DOUBLES, HEALTH SHINES, By Shivaji Sarkar, 22 April 2024 |
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Economic Highlights
New
Delhi, 22 April 2024
J&K Economy Paces Up
GSDP DOUBLES, HEALTH SHINES
By Shivaji Sarkar
Jammu
and Kashmir is advancing at a pace that may surprise many across the nation,
boasting of strong health and social indicators. It stands out with impressive
statistics for women and high per capita income particularly remarkable
considering it’s a region predominantly inhabited by minorities.
The
Union Territory is making strides forward despite occasional Opposition
protests, such as the one in September 2023 against the abrogation of Article
370 and the delay of grassroots elections. The Congress on April 1, 2024, held
protests again at Srinagar BJP state headquarters against the Centre over its
alleged attempts to cripple the Opposition parties ahead of the general
elections. Democratic protests are back.
It was
not easy, but Home Minister Amit Shah, who not only led the scrapping of
Articles 370 and 35A but also keepsa close watch on every development, observed
and analysed with precision, allows such demonstrations to give a vent to the
anguish. This was not possible some years back when none knew from where a
terrorist bullet would fly in. Since June 19, Shah has been visiting the Union
Territory often and these became more frequent since October to reorganise the
affairs.Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha says that the speed of development in
the UT has gone up by ten times since the abrogation of Article 370. However, voices
within disputethis.
Kashmir
is aspirational as it has better standard of living and aspires to have more
investments and strengthen its different indicators. There are impressive data
from the administration and the NITI Aayog which show it is progressing on most
counts as investments pour in. It has received investment proposals totalling
Rs 56,857 crore against a target of Rs 75,000 crore, potentially creating 2.62
lakh jobs. From 1600 investors, 800 have already deposited their initial
investments and secured land allotments. However, the full impact is yet to be
realised due to gestational issues in the process. Additionally, the administration
anticipates an additional Rs 3,000 crore in foreign investment following
business delegation visits from the UAE and other countries. Since
2019, gross state GDP (GSDP) has doubled to Rs 2.25 lakh crore from Rs 1 lakh
crore.
The
Economist magazine writes, “Tourism, it is true,
has seen a modest recovery—backed by a government campaign that portrays
Kashmir as a peaceful, picturesque place. Visitor numbers in 2022 were roughly
the same as in 2018 (more in 2023). Yet tourism, which currently accounts for 6
percent of state’s GDP has taken an almighty leap to be a major driver of
growth”. Though political changes thawed some sectors.
Social
welfare and focus on healthcare and education has been the cornerstone of
governance in J&K since the mid-20th century. This has improved with
government jobs, which are dwindling. There is restlessness as jobs,
particularly government jobs, are lagging. Most of 2.62 lakh jobs promised are
not in government.The state tops in health indicators, according to National
Family Health Survey-5 (NFHS-5). It has a sex ratio at birth of 976 female
births against per 1000 male children. This means 47 more female births against
all-India average of 929.
Infant
mortality rate, children dying before the age 5, at 18.5 per 1000, is better
than the national average of 42. Even the total fertility rate is
positive. Against national average of 2, J&K has 1.4. It means 60 fewer
births, ensuring better health and living conditions. Most births take place at
a hospital or clinic. Against national average of 88.6 percent, 92.4 percent of
the women deliver their babies in an institutional facility. But 65 percent
women suffer from anaemia against the national average of 57 percent.
As per
NITI Aayog’s 2023 report, the standard of living is higher in terms of use of
clean fuel – 32 percent; electricity usage 99 percent and housing. However, it lags
behind in access to clean drinking water, 10.37 percent against the national
7.3 percent.
Women in
J&K are relatively more empowered than rest of India. It has less spousal
violence; higher age at marriage, female labour force participation, women
attaining more than 10 years of schooling and owning phones. Overall social
conditions are better than the average living conditions of minorities
elsewhere in India. Even it has less polygamy at 1.4 percent.J&K has an average
per capita income of Rs 1.36 lakh and is comparable with Punjab’s Rs 1.49 lakh.
Shah
notes an improvement in the Valley’s situation, projecting J&K as a leading
economic state. Intense combing operations before his visits have now become
routine drills. Terrorism is nearly eradicated in the Valley, although sporadic
incidents of migrant killings occur in the Rajouri-Poonch area. This region,
part of the Anantnag constituency, is divided by the PirPanjal range, forcing
candidates to undertake a 500 km detour to reach voters. Traversing the
constituency poses a significant challenge for political parties and candidates
during campaigning.
The National
Conference of Farooq Abdullah with ally Congress is contesting all the seats as
they could not reach an agreement with PDP leader Mehbooba Mufti. She is
contesting from Anantnag. The NC-Cong is contesting Baramulla, Anantnag,
and Srinagar in the Valley, and Udhampur and Jammu. Since the Valley politics
has become volatile, the BJP is not contesting or even supporting its supposed
allies like the Democratic Progressive Azad Party of Ghulam Nabi Azad and Apni
Party. Azad though was keen but has not filed his nomination. Similarly,
ApniPary is also in the lurch.
Shah and
Prime Minister Narendra Modi decided the party would not contest the seats in
the Valley to involve the local people more in the parliamentary system and
governance. The Centre is sending vibes that Kashmir would do better with the
support of its own people as their trust deepens.
Regional
parties express their discontent, attributing it to a portion of their
supporters who insist on further improvements in the security situation. Despite
this, there remains a persistent demand for the reinstatement of Article 370,
which appears unattainable. Many individuals still express discomfort with the
extensive security presence, now more covert, which is reportedly targeting
migrant populations. Economic growth, reflected in job opportunities and
business development, remains stagnant, affecting the average income per
family. Approximately 22 percent of the population remains unemployed.
Following the Lok Sabha elections, there is optimism among the people for
broader prospects and opportunities.----INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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India Votes: 1st PHASE SEES BOYCOTT, By Insaf, 20 April 2024 |
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Round The States
New Delhi, 20 April 2024
India Votes
1st PHASE SEES BOYCOTT
By Insaf
The biggest democratic exercise in the world kicked off
yesterday. Of the 543 Lok Sabha seats, 102 went to the polls in the first phase
across 21 states and UTs. While the Election Commission was reeling out polling
percentages, as 40% odd around 1 p.m. across the board, it would be upset with
its tally by the end of the day, given chunks of voters chose to boycott
instead. In six districts and 20 Assembly segments of 60 in eastern Nagaland
not a single vote had been cast. This is in response to call by Eastern
Nagaland People’s Organisation (ENPO) asking for a complete shutdown for the
solitary Lok Sabha seat given the Center’s failure to keep its promise of
creating Frontier Nagaland Territory. Apparently, state CEO show-caused the
ENPO asking why action shouldn’t be taken against it for interfering or
attempting to interfere with free exercise of any electoral right and
thereby committing undue influence. Pat came the reply: “shut down was
voluntary initiative by people” and call was given for maintaining law and
order situation! In down south Tamil Nadu, the story is similar. In nine places,
the voters did not go to polling stations either as a protest against a
greenfield airport coming up, or for a railway bridge not being built, or
non-resolution of their long-pending demands for basic facilities. However, no action
can be taken against the voter. The blame lies elsewhere. The voters make their
point, and it must be corrected.
* * * *
Rajputs To Boycott BJP
Should the BJP be worried on western UP front? At a ‘mahapanchayat’,
on Tuesday last, Rajputs decided to boycott the saffron party candidates in Muzaffarnagar,
Kairana and Saharanpur Lok Sabha constituencies. Their grudge is that the
community has been neglected in the distribution of party tickets. And thus, in
these areas, the community will not vote for BJP candidates, ‘but will opt for
another strong candidate from other parties.’ Interestingly, while the boycott
is for BJP candidates, the Rajputs said it wouldn’t apply to Chief Minister
Yogi Adityanath, who ‘was their voice, but wasn’t being heard by central BJP
leadership’! Intriguing indeed for the voter as in UP, it’s not Prime Minister
Modi alone which holds sway, but Yogi too, who has come to be seen as a good
administrator. The region has helped BJP per se win majority of seats in the
past due to a consolidated Hindu vote. But now the big question is whether the ‘mahapanchayat’
decision ‘will become the reason for BJP’s downfall in Western UP,’ as claimed.
* * * *
TN in Focus
Tamil Nadu this time round has surprised many an election
watcher. Campaigning in the state had been hitting national headlines. This,
given the fact that BJP has kept a sharp focus on the south and longs to make
inroads. And that’s why this election is seeing a three-cornered contest: the
ruling DMK-led alliance which includes Congress, two Communist parties and
Muslim League; BJP and opposition AIADMK, which parted company from NDA. While
the DMK and team is confident that it shall rule the roost, the margin
victories may not be as easy as was in 2019 and that it is facing an
inti-incumbency factor. For the BJP, state president K Annamalai has kept the
party’s presence in the state, but it is star campaigner Modi and his
popularity which the party is banking upon, given his repeated campaign visits
in past year, especially the past couple of months. BJP, which has raised the
stakes seeks to change the arithmetic, by relegating AIADMK to the third spot,
managing the second for itself. Recall, the state has in the past voted
one-sided: in 2019 of 39 seats, DMK-Congress got 38 and in 2014, AIADMK got 37.
Will BJP be a new entrant in Dravidian politics?
* * * *
Chhattisgarh ‘Surgical Strike’
Naxalism will see an end in five years in Chhattisgarh if
BJP comes to power, were words of Union Home Minister Amit Shah, seeking votes during
last November’s Assembly polls. He is determined as on Tuesday last, the BJP-ruled
state witnessed the biggest encounter in the state’s history of fighting Left
Wing Extremism, with 29 Maoists killed in Kanker district and 3 security
personnel injured in a joint operation of BSF and state police’s District
Reserve Guard. It’s being said senior cadres of outlawed CPI-Maoist Shankar,
Lalita, Raju and others, may have died in the operation launched and a huge
cache of weapons, including AK-47, SLR, Insas and .303 rifles, were recovered. Since
2024, 79 Maoists have been killed in their stronghold of Bastar region, which
goes to polls yesterday. Polling in Kanker district will be held on April 26. Hailing
it as a ‘surgical strike’, Deputy CM and state home minister Sharma reached out
to the Maoists saying ‘We want talks…whether they do it in a group or through
representatives. Bastar needs peace. We are committed to this.’ Will his offer
be taken up after this encounter?
* * * *
States Laxity On Mob Lynching
State governments must pull up their socks. With most not
filing their affidavits in a writ petition filed in July last regarding action
they have taken in incidents of mob lynching and cow vigilantism against the
Muslim community, the Supreme Court has issued a deadline of six weeks and
shall take up the case after summer break. The petition was filed by National
Federation of Indian Women seeking directions to States to take immediate steps
viz the top court’s verdict of 2018 to effectively deal with such cases.
Notices were issued to the Centre and DGPs of Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Orissa, Bihar,
Madhya Pradesh, and Haryana. While the latter two states filed their reply, the
petitioner pointed out that in MP there was an incident of alleged mob-lynching,
but the FIR was for cow slaughter against victims and likewise in Haryana FIR
was registered for transporting beef but not mob lynching. All incidents, not
selective, must be reported as states have principal obligation to ensure vigilantism,
be it cow vigilantism or any other vigilantism of any perception, doesn’t take
place, had said the court. It issued guidelines for authorities to deal with
such incidents, but so far it’s been in vain!
* * * *
Relief For Dog Lovers
Dog lovers will be relieved but must be watchful. The
Centre’s notification banning sale and breeding of 23 breeds of ferocious dogs,
including American Bulldog and Pit-bull Terriers has been a no-go in two
courts. Karnataka High Court quashed it with no such power available under
Prevention of Cruelty to Animals Act, 1960 or Animal Birth Control Rules, New
Delhi had no such authority. A week later, petitions challenging the directive
in Delhi High Court were disposed, after Department of Animal Husbandry and
Dairying admitted it was put out without consulting or inviting objections and
suggestions from private entity or stakeholders. Agreeing it wasn’t possible to
give an oral hearing to every dog owner, the Centre was directed to issue “a
public notice on its official website and one national daily inviting
objections to the proposed draft notification/amendment to the rules.” These,
it said, shall be considered before finalising fresh notification. The Dept
must listen lest it finds itself in the doghouse! ---INFA
(Copyright, India News Feature
Alliance)
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Indian Parliament Elections: IS FOREIGN POLICY AN ISSUE?, By Prof. (Dr.) D.K. Giri, 19 April 2024 |
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Round The World
New Delhi, 19 April 2024
Indian Parliament Elections
IS FOREIGN POLICY AN ISSUE?
By Prof. (Dr.) D.K. Giri
(Secretary General, Assn for Democratic Socialism)
Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in an
interview that elections in India are festivals of our democracy. It is true
that across the country, people are in a festive mood and are excited about
exercising their fundamental right, i.e. to vote for a candidate of their
choice. An avid political commentator had put it in different, slightly
derisive words, “Indian politics is electionised not much democratised”. His
observation pointed to elections round the year in some part of the country or
the other. As India has three-tier governance – Centre, states and local
governments, elections for any one of the tiers is happening somewhere in the
country throughout the year.
Obviously, several issues and features of
Indian politics come up during elections. The issues that matter to voters, and
the features, mainly the organising principles, are manifested during
elections. But does foreign policy issues figure in the campaigns of political
parties, at least the national parties? From the reports in the press, opinion
polls, voters’ surveys, it is evident that foreign policy is not a priority. This
contradicts with India’s aspirations of becoming a Vishwa Guru or a Vishwa
Bandhu, the latter epithet is mentioned in the BJP’s manifesto under the
section on foreign policy.
Before we scan the issues in the
manifestoes of the political parties, we should learn why voters are not interested
in foreign policy. Indian voters like those in many developing countries do not
have much interest in internationalism for a variety of reasons. I will list
only a few. Many Indians, for lack of adequate resources, cannot travel and
explore the world. As it is said, you cannot feel for something, you have not
seen. Second, the lack of enough international outlook, many people in India do
not comprehend that international communities comprising both state and
non-state actors influence each country including India in multiple ways.
The external influence over the countries
has intensified under the ongoing process of globalisation. So far, the global
outlook has been the prerogative of the big powers – Europeans, Americans and
Russians. This is because of their superior economic and military might. Chinese
and Indians are new entrants. Ironically, China has the resources but not many
likeable ideas that will enable it to play a credible international role. India
has the ideas drawn from its rich civilisation and enduring democracy, but
lacks resources. Also, India, a vast country with the biggest population in the
world, consisting of 28 states, is like the European Union of 27 countries.
Both Union of India and the European Union get too embroiled in their internal
matters with little enthusiasm and energy left for internationalism.
The foreign policy making is left to an
elite club of bureaucrats and so-called experts. Voters hardly influence the
making of foreign policy. New Delhi like Brussels fails to realise that playing
an international role will enhance the internal strengths. It is a truism that
foreign policy of any country is a function of its domestic strengths which are
also called determinants. An improved international engagement, which New Delhi
seems to seek, requires the backing of domestic heft – economic, political,
demographic, developmental and technological. Likewise, a diminished role in
the world will level down the internal initiatives, reforms and rejuvenation. India,
therefore, needs to internationally position itself which is commensurate with
its national strengths and strategies.
From the above premise, let us look at
the issues raised by political parties in their manifestoes. We will take two
parties for the purpose – the BJP, which ran the government for the last ten
years and the Indian National Congress, the main Opposition party. Other political
parties are not so consequential in foreign policies. Although Left parties do
talk about it, their electoral strength is limited to one state government.
BJP’s manifesto reflects the foreign
policy the government has been following: securing the permanent membership of
UNSC; putting neighbourhood first; using the Indian Diaspora for investment and
diplomatic support; becoming the voice of Global South; creating a global
consensus on fight against terrorism, strengthening Indo-Pacific region for security
and growth; establishment of India-Middle East-Europe Corridor and so on. BJP
seeks to elevate Bharat as a global soft power.
An ambitious but desirable promise that
BJP makes is to be the First Responder Bharat. This means, building on its
success of providing emergency relief material mainly vaccinations during
Covid, India seeks to promote its reputation as a trusted global partner and a
first responder in extending humanitarian assistance in disaster-relief
programmes. Equally promising is the focus on building cultural centres across
the globe to showcase Bharat’s rich culture and offer training in yoga,
ayurveda and classical music etc. BJP promises to present Bharat as the mother
of democracy. If they do so, it may silence the Indian as well as international
critics of the health of Indian democracy.
Congress begins its foreign policy
promises by strongly criticising BJP government’s handling of Chinese
intrusions in Ladakh, Galwan clash in 2020 and Indian forces not having access
to 26 out of 65 patrolling points, which is equivalent to 2000 sq mtrs in
Eastern Ladakh. Congress repeats their age-old approach of ‘continuity and
change’ in India’s foreign policy. Other references to India’s foreign policy
made by Congress, sound rhetorical except that they make a strong claim on
restoring status quo with China, a different approach to the conflict in Gaza,
and closer relationships with the neighbouring countries. Also, Congress
emphasises on building consensus on foreign policy. They claim that this was
the case since independence until BJP made notable departures from this
consensus.
Communication between political parties –
Ruling and the Opposition is essential in a democracy. Respect for dissent in
domestic and foreign policy is a hallmark of a robust democracy. That said,
there could be divergent opinions and approaches in policies including the
foreign policy. The consensus the Congress Party is referring to, perhaps
existed when Congress party was predominant with smaller opposition parties in
Indian politics.
At any rate, it is advisable to make
foreign policy an issue in elections. This will enhance the domestic
determinants of India’s foreign policy. There is no dearth of information
available to voters through the new media, the internet. It is just that
political parties should be willing to share their foreign policy strategies with
their voters. Before they do so, they need to educate themselves on the world
affairs. Many parties do not have a foreign policy cell in their party
structures. Congress party has one but not functional, what to talk of other
smaller and regional parties. Voters should also demand that political parties
should commit themselves to positions in India’s foreign policy.
Let us note that Prime Minister Modi made
a reference to Katchatheevu, an Islet between India and Sri Lanka; the latter
possessing it. That is the way to mobilise voters on a foreign policy issue
regardless of whether it was the right cause to take up since it is not being
reclaimed nor is it mentioned in BJP’s manifesto. Implementation of CAA is
another. These are the examples of how to use foreign policy in a competitive
electoral process. And this is the way to become a world power.---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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POLL, CONGRESS-I & OPPOSITION UNITY, By Inder Jit, 18 April 2024 |
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REWIND
New Delhi, 18 April 2024
POLL,
CONGRESS-I & OPPOSITION UNITY
By Inder
Jit
(Released
on 13 June 1989)
The poll battle is hotting up. Everything is being said
or done with an eye on winning supporters and influencing people. Nothing is
being left to chance. The stakes are once again high, indeed very high. The
battle is not just a quest for continuing in power for the Congress-I leaders.
Even physical survival is involved in a tragic situation in which Punjab still
awaits a solution and continues to bleed and suffer. What the outcome will be
at the time of the poll in October at the earliest or in the first week of
January at the latest --- lies in the lap of the Gods. Much will depend on the
popular mood or the hawa on the eve of the election. Anything could
happen between now and then in a country where the public easily goes euphoric
and its opinion and mood are known to swing from one extreme to another. We
have made heroes of ordinary mortals and raised them to glorious heights one
day and denounced and dumped them the next day.
The Congress-I hopes to "sweep the poll and win an
overwhelming majority", according to an assessment Mr H.K.L. Bhagat gave
me at the Pioneer's 125th year celebration at the Vigyan Bhawan on
Wednesday last. "Don't give me what is fit only for a bhashan,"
I said. He responded: "I am serious. Our people know what is good for them
and the country." The Opposition, for its part, is no less optimistic, no
matter what you and I think and feel in the metropolitan or other urban centres
-- or in our ivory towers. Said Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee: "As things stand
at present, the Opposition parties should get an overwhelming majority. I give
the Congress-I a maximum of 200 seats out of a total of 544 seats." This
assessment, as Mr Vajpayee clarified, "is based on the expectation that
the Opposition parties will ultimately be able to fight the Congress-I on a
one-to-one basis. All of us are keen to avoid splitting of the anti-Congress-I
vote this time."
The Congress-I assessment is based mainly on the
failure of the Opposition thus far to project itself as a credible alternative.
In sharp contrast, the Congress-I sees itself acknowledged once again as
India's best bet for stability and unity. The Janata Government in Karnataka
and its impressive record posed a problem. But this has since been resolved ---
rightly or wrongly. In addition, the party hopes to capitalize in a big way on
Mr Rajiv Gandhi's new deal on Panchayati Raj. Not a little store is also laid
by the Rs 2,500-crore Jawahar Rozgar Yojana, which is expected to swell the
ranks of its supporters. Asserted a Congress-I leader: "Our voters go by
broad impressions. Remember, Indira Gandhi won her battle against the old guard
by declaring: ‘They say Indira hatao. I say garibi hatao’.
Rajivji has now given a new slogan: 'Power to the people’. The masses are
happy, who is bothered at the grassroots about constitutional niceties and the
autonomy of the States?"
The Opposition expects to win mainly on the basis of
what it describes as the Rajiv Government's present image of being
"corrupt and rotten", arguing: "The Opposition is seldom voted
to power. Only the Government is voted out!" Mr V.P. Singh, for instance,
is not unduly worried that the Bofors and the Submarine scandals no longer
dominate the proceedings of Parliament or the front pages of newspapers. He
told me not long ago: "The people are now well aware of the truth. The chowkidar
has turned into a chor." At any rate, the Opposition is not without
more ammunition. This is expected to be used at the right moment. They also
hope to cash in on what they describe as the failure of the Government's
economic policies, as reflected in two things which concern the masses most:
unemployment and prices. The Jawahar Rozgar Yojana, they feel, will only
highlight the Government's basic failure --- and "its attempts to fool the
people through stunts."
All out efforts are, therefore, under way on both sides
to improve the image of their top leaders and to sully those of the opponents. Mr.
Rajiv Gandhi turned up in the Lok Sabha to announce personally the Jawahar
Rozgar Yojana and also to introduce the historic Panchayati Raj Bill, even as
he was greatly conspicuous by his absence time and again when the House was
plunged into disorder. (As the Leader of the House, Mr Gandhi is required to
ensure that Parliament functions smoothly.) Everything possible is being done
to damn the Janata Dal leader, Mr V.P. Singh. In the bargain, all norms and
ethics have been cast to the winds. Even a newspaper article by Mr Madhu
Limaye, who himself never made it to the big league as a controversial
socialist, was quoted at length by Doordarshan to denigrate both Mr V.P. Singh
and the Janata Dal. Obliging newspapers have also been roped in to denounce Mr
Singh and put across the official pro-Rajiv line.
On the other hand, Mr V.P. Singh has been persuaded by
his close aides and supporters to give greater attention to his popular image
and to be careful about what he says. (Remember, following his triumph in the
Allahabad by-election, Mr Singh openly stated that he would be "a disaster
as Prime Minister." This, as he told me, was intended to stop people from
talking of him as Prime Minister. But the statement is now being quoted against
him!) Mr Singh has, therefore, asserted himself on the choice of the Janata Dal
Chief in Bihar. He was far from happy at having appointed Mr Raghunath Jha at
the pressing instance of Mr Chandra Shekhar and Mr Devi Lal. Now, he has
removed Mr Jha and appointed Mr Ram Sundar Das, who has a much better image. In
the process, he has shown that he can also be tough and decisive. Those who
attended the Janata Dal's recent meet in Bangalore also speak highly of his
conduct of the conclave.
Simultaneously, the Janata Dal is also working
patiently to ensure the position unity at the polls and a one-to-one contest
against the Congress-I, especially in the Hindi heartland which accounts for
221 seats. This is sought to be done through the National Front and through
seat adjustments with the BJP, notwithstanding CPM Opposition. The CPM
maintains that any adjustment with the BJP would drive the Muslims, who
constitute 16 per cent of the voters, into the arms of the Congress-I. But the
Janata Dal disagrees and asserts that adjustments are tactical and wholly
distinct from an alliance. The Janata Dal and the BJP are also clear that
adjustments are a must if the Congress-I is to be humbled. Consequently, Mr
Vajpayee and Mr Devi Lal have not only met to hammer out adjustments, but their
efforts hold out promise of unexpected success, proving the well-known adage:
if there is a will there is a way.
The Congress-I, for its part, is trying its best
overtly and covertly to prevent the Opposition from coming together. Quiet
moves have been on to persuade the CPM to stay out of the National Front. At
the same time, the Left has also been attacked publicly by Mr Rajiv Gandhi for
continuing in a front in which its principal member, the Janata Dal, is
"in alliance" with the "communal BJP". The CPM would, no
doubt, be happier if the Janata Dal agreed not to seek adjustments with the
BJP. But, to quote Mr Harkishan Singh Surjeet, "the CPM is clear that the
Rajiv Gandhi Government today stands isolated from the common man and the
masses and must be given a crushing defeat." Further, the CPM has hardly
any following of its own in the Hindi heartland. It is, therefore, not terribly
keen on making an issue of the Janata Dal-BJP talks and walking out of the
National Front, something which would help only the ruling Congress-I.
One issue remains. What does the proverbial common man
think and feel? Some quiet soundings over the past few weeks have yielded
interesting results. The weaker sections of the community are exercised most of
all over the continuous price rise, which has made their "lives miserable."
(They assert: "What do our Ministers know of the price of atta, daal
and other basic needs.") Corruption scandals relating to Bofors guns and
HDW submarines undoubtedly bother them. But what has angered them most is the
hard fact that corruption now afflicts all levels of administration down to the
panchayat. Nothing moves even at the grass-roots without bribery. "Both
have made the weaker sections anti-Rajiv Government," to quote more than
one person. But they have a problem. They do not yet see a credible alternative
and feel disgusted by the infighting (real or created) in the Janata Dal. Both
the Congress-I and the Opposition would do well to pause --- and take note.---INFA
(Copyright, India
News and Feature Alliance)
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Heat Wave Conditions: FATAL IMPACT ON HUMAN HEALTH, By Dhurjati Mukherjee, 17 April 2024 |
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Open Forum
New Delhi, 17 April 2024
Heat Wave Conditions
FATAL IMPACT ON HUMAN HEALTH
By Dhurjati Mukherjee
The past
year, 2023 was the hottest year on record with mean temperature nearing the
critical 1.50 Celsius threshold over a 12-month period and the trend
continued in the first two months of this year. For India, 2023 was the second
warmest year on record in the country since 1901. Projections reveal the
current year may surpass this record as apart from April, the next two months
may become unbearable in western, northern and eastern parts of India.
Moreover, the coastal cities with high humidity as also the desert regions may
give a feeling of anything around 42 to 45 degrees Celsius.
Given
the forecast,Prime Minister Modi called a meeting last week to take stock of
the preparedness for heatwave conditions and advised that governments at
central, state and district levels must work in synergy.
The annual
‘State of Climate Report’of World Meteorological Organisation(WMO), says
the global mean temperature in 2023 was 1.450C -- 0.2 degree Celsius
above 1850-1900 average, turning it the warmest year in 174-year history of
record keeping. Besides, it broke records in all climate indicators, including greenhouse
gas levels, ocean heat, sea level rise, Antarctica sea ice loss and glacier
retreat.
It’s distressing
touching the critical 1.50Celsius threshold so early has negated projection
of Paris Agreement, hailed globally. “Never have we been so close to the 1.50
C limit of the Paris Agreement on climate change”, observed WMO Secretary General
Celeste Saulo, sounding the red alert to the world. Thus, the question now
would be whether warming would reach 2 or 2.50 C in the next two
decades.
India
observed a significant mean temperature increase of 0.15 degrees C per decade
since 1950, according to a 2020 Ministry of Earth Sciencesassessment. The
observed warming is not occurring evenly across India. Warm days and warm nights
have also increased at about seven and three days per decade, respectively,
during 1951-2015 and even later. Currently, 23 States, mainly of plain and
coastal regions, are considered more vulnerable to widespread heat impact.
However, that doesn’t mean hilly states are safe. Although their maximum
temperatures do not reach heatwave threshold levels of 45 degrees C, the
population is experiencing higher temperatures compared to previous
decades.
The
warming has been in focus for quite some time. A UN report about two years
back, says India would become the worst climate-affected region in the world,
specially applicable to the cities. Even this report could not contemplate that
global warming of 1.5 degrees centigrade would be reached by 2023.
At same
time, the report predicted various trends which include: Rise in weather and
climate extremes led to some irreversible impacts as natural and human systems
are pushed beyond their ability to adapt; Approximately 3.3 to 3.6 billion
people live under climate threat; Beyond 2040, climate change will lead to
numerous risks and multiple climate hazard will occur simultaneously; Coastal
cities are under severe climate risk which includes Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata,
Bhubaneswar etc.
Human
health exposure to severe or continuous heat, leads to heat stress. When
uncompensated, heat stress manifests as heat-related illnesses. Such illnesses
range from superficial/mild and manageable (e.g. prickly heat, heat-related
swelling, heat cramps, heat exhaustion) to a medical emergency (i.e. heat
stroke). Heat stroke is the most severe of heat-related illnesses as it impairs
brain function (i.e. stroke) due to uncontrolled body heating. It may turn into
a critical condition that often turns fatal if there is a delay or failure in
reducing body temperature by rapid, active cooling. Besides neurological
impairment, high core body temperature (at least 40 degrees C), or hot, dry
skin are other heat stroke symptoms.
Heat-related
illnesses are not the only cause of emergency or mortality during hot summer
days. Normal human body temperature stays within a narrow range of 36.3-37.3
degrees C. It maintains thermal balance through radiation (40%), evaporation
(30%), convection (27%), and conduction (3%). Any external or internal
condition that increases body temperature invokes various physiological
responses changing cardiovascular, kidney, and metabolic systems, driven by
increased blood flow to the skin and dehydration. Various studies have
indicated that 90% of India is found to be vulnerable to heatwave impact.
Epidemiologically,
it is important to note; in current scenario, whichever threshold is used to
announce heatwaves, the health impacts of heat do not begin to occur only after
those threshold temperature levels are crossed. Health impacts begin much
before, even at moderate temperature levels. In terms of external factors,
humidity plays a crucial role in creating heat stress by limiting our body’s
major cooling mechanism: sweating.
Even at
moderate temperatures, like 35 or 36 degrees C, if the relative humidity is
70%, it will feel like 50 degrees C to us. In terms of internal factors, heat’s
impacts depend on the acclimatisation and build-up of heat stress in the human
body. Acclimatisation is a gradual physiological adaptation (short-term) that
increases heat tolerance as a person incrementally exerts in a hot setting for
a few days. Air conditioning and comorbidities reduce our heat tolerance.
Similarly, long-term adaptation occurs in people living in hotter regions over
the years. Therefore, tourists from colder regions are particularly at risk of
heat stroke.
The Union
Health Ministry cautioned amid weather forecasts of excess days of heat waves
across the country during Lok Sabha elections. The National Programme on
Climate Change and Human Health (NPCCHH) advisory on extreme heat underlined
that physical exertion, direct sun exposure and difficult access to shade and
water may worsen the health of vulnerable people. Infants, and young children
and people with cardiovascular diseases or high blood pressure are among the
vulnerable populations. Not just stroke but heat related illnesses include heat
rash, heat oedema (swelling of hands, feet and ankles) and fainting.
A study
conducted in Kolkata for2021-22 summer found that indoor heat index levels
in urban slum dwellings were 5.29 degrees C higher than outdoors. Dangerously
high heat and humidity (at least 45 degrees C) remained for an average of about
nine hours/day in urban slum dwellings compared to 2 hours a day in rural
houses. These differences were particularly notable at night. During the
coolest time of night, the insides of urban dwellings recorded a 6.4 degrees C
higher heat index than outdoors, while the insides of rural houses recorded 1.3
degrees C above outdoor levels. Cement walls, clay tiles, corrugated tin roofs,
fewer rooms, and crowding made urban slums dangerously hot.
Similarly,
a study from Ahmedabad recorded an average 6.7 degrees C higher heat index
at the locations where patients with acute heat illnesses were picked up by
emergency medical services compared to what was recorded by the nearest weather
station during the summer of 2016. At city level, such differences translate
into an increase in all-cause mortality with daily city temperature. Hence,
city-level temperature-mortality study has become vital for heat-health action
planning.
Adaptation
measures to extreme heat are essential as the situation has the potential to
change the course of irreversible planetary consequences. Due to rise in
greenhouse gases, global warming has reached alarming levels. Even with all the
commitments made by different nations and the very recent aim of targeting net
zero emissions, large numbers of people in tropical countries, including India,
will find it hard to live. Thus, a health-centric adaptation focus should be
seriously followed in every sector to tackle the ongoing heat wave. This will
also help us stay on course for achievement of the SDGs.---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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