ROUND THE STATES

New Delhi, 4 January 2006

Terror in New Year

ALL STATES ON HIGH ALERT

By Insaf

All the State capitals stepped into the New Year on a high alert sounded by the Union Government following reports of increasing terrorist plots across the country.  After the militant strike at a conference of scientists in the Indian Institute of Sciences at Bangalore on December 28, the Centre advised the State Governments to raise their security umbrella, especially over places of higher learning, heritage sites and prominent buildings.  The Bangalore attack in which a former IIT Professor was killed and four others injured, could have turned into a major disaster, but for the failure of the defective grenades used by terrorists.  As many as four grenades thrown at the assembly did not explode, forcing the attackers to flee from the scene.

The Centre’s timely warning to the States has saved many a Bangalore-like situation, as the events in the subsequent days have proved. The Police foiled a plan by a Pakistan-based terror group Jaish-e-Mohammed to trigger Delhi-like serial blasts in Hyderabad on the eve of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to the city to inaugurate the Indian Science Congress that began on January 3.  A red alert was also sounded in Kerala, following the recovery of powerful explosives from a bus stand in Kozhikode on Monday last. Investigations following these incidents within a week prove that terrorists have big targets in mind: high-tech cities and police headquarters across the country.

With major Pakistan-backed terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Toiba, Hizbul Mujahideen and Jaish-e-Mohammed joining hands with the Naxalites and other local militant organizations, the security situation has worsened. They have reportedly worked out a well-planned agenda to cover the entire country.  The intelligence agencies have also found that “sleeper cells” of pro-al Qaeda jehadi groups with bases in Pakistan and Bangladesh are operating in south India.  Bangalore-based General Officer Commanding of the Army Area, Maj-Gen. Shivashankar has expressed concern over “the free movement of Naxals to Bangalore from Jharkhand, Bihar and Andhra Pradesh” and advised additional security for Bangalore where several national level conferences are scheduled during the next few weeks.

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Left “Poll Machine” Gets Set

Political activity is picking up in the five States where Assembly polls are scheduled this year: West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry and Kerala. The Election Commission has already started its exercise beginning from West Bengal where polling is expected to be held in May-June.  Like it did in Bihar, the Commission is determined to ensure free and fair poll.  It has already undertaken a thorough check of voter identity cards which the State Electoral Commissioner has already issued. Several irregularities have been detected in most of the constituencies.  Nearly two lakh irregular cards have been cancelled so far and a fresh voters list is being prepared for the entire State.

Meanwhile, the ruling Left Front has fired its first salvo to retain power and add another five years to its record rule of 29 years.  The Front’s most formidable vote-bank of nearly three lakh government employees held a massive rally in Kolkata on Wednesday last. The Employees’ Coordination Committee pledged its support to the CPM and promised to start “oiling” the party’s poll machine. It announced keenness to see the Left Front back at the helm.  Former Chief Minister Jyoti Basu addressed the rally and stated: “Had the Coordination Committee not been there, we would not have been able to stay in power for 29 years.”  Basu and the Committee leaders joined hands to hit out at the Congress which ruled the State before the Left Front about three decades ago.

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Gogoi’s Gift To ULFA

Assam’s Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi too is taking steps to ensure that his Congress returns to power once more.  Besides several steps taken to tone up the administration for speedy completion of development projects, Gogoi has given top priority to bring peace to the State.  His first move in the new year is to tackle the dreaded ULFA, which has killed countless innocent people.  Gogoi has given them a new year gift: Safe passage to the ULFA cadres from January 7 to 20 to visit their families or relatives. Announcing his safe-passage decision, Gogoi stated: “If they come they will not be arrested and can visit the places they want to for about two weeks”. The move is expected to soften their mindset against the Government.

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Poll Moves In Tamil Nadu

The Dravidian parties in Tamil Nadu are girding up their loins for the upcoming Assembly poll.  While the ruling Anna-DMK, led by Jayalalitha, is busy providing relief for victims of the recent flash floods in the State, the DMK Chief, Karunanidhi has called upon the people to oust the ruling party.   He led a massive agitation to condemn the Government for the recent stampede at the MGR Nagar. Karunanidhi and other several leaders also hit out at the Government for detaining the party Councillor Dhanasekaran under the Goonda Act for allegedly spreading rumours that caused the stampede.  The DMK has demanded a probe into the whole issue.

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Kerala CPM On Reforms Path

A wind of change is blowing in Kerala.  Encouraged by its comfortable victory in the recent local body elections, the Left Front is hoping to defeat the ruling Congress-led United Democratic Front in the upcoming Assembly poll.  Importantly, it has decided to reorient its economic policies, with emphasis on foreign investment and reforms as adopted by “big brother” West Bengal. Appropriately, the CPM organized an international Congress in Thiruvananthapuram recently and got the Left’s  “poster boy of reforms”, West Bengal Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee to inaugurate it. The comrades of Kerala, like those of Bengal, are eager to tap the fruits of globalization rather than turn their back on it.  They have now focussed their attention on growth sectors like IT, biotechnology and tourism.

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Kalam’s Vision of Bihar

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has now got the First Citizen of India as his supporter for the State’s progress. During his visit to Patna last week, President Abdul Kalam expressed his confidence in Nitish Kumar and presented his vision of Bihar to emerge as a developed State under his leadership.  The President appreciated the big responsibility which Nitish Kumar had taken on his shoulders for the State’s progress. The Chief Minister used the opportunity and sought the President’s guidance for his plans to develop the State.  The latter agreed instantly and promised to re-visit Bihar in March to help the CM finalise his roadmap for development: “Bihar Vision: Developed State by 2015”.

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Raj’s Blow To Shiv Sena

The split in Shiv Sena is now complete, with its former leaders and patriarch Bal Thackarey’s nephew Raj Thackarey drawing a large number of Sainiks to his new party. Raj has received a big boost when over 2,500 Sena activists pledged their support to him. The group is led by two-term Corporator Dilip Lande, who wrote to the Executive President of the Sena, Uddhav Thackarey, that they were quitting the party.  More Corporators, MLAs and MPs have also promised support to Raj. The real picture about Raj’s strength will, however, be known only after the bypolls for the three Assembly seats on January 21.  These vacancies were caused after three Sena MLAs resigned to join the Congress.---INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Defence Notes

New Delhi, 11 December 2006

Service Chiefs’ Concern

DEPLETION IN WAR-WAGING POTENTIAL

By B.K. Mathur

The Service Chiefs have made two significant observations at the combined commanders conference in New Delhi the other day. Very crucial for the armed forces, they stressed in the presence of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh that corruption scandals in defence deals should not be allowed to derail modernization plans and that the Defence Research and development Organisation (DRDO) must get its act together, instead of delivering too little, to late.  The PM was told that the long delays in the procurement of desperately needed military hardware and software was causing a steady depletion in the war-waging potential of the armed forces. 

The Chiefs’ comment that the tardy progress in the projects of the DRDO with unrealistic time-frame is at once unfair to the Organisation, which is doing a good job for over three decades. There is no denying the fact that several important projects have been delayed for long. But it needs to be understood by the Service headquarters, and the Prime Minister too, that the delays have not been caused by the DRDO, or its laboratories or the Ordnance factories.  The culprit is the system for procurement of military hardware and software and faulty defence production industry.  A high-level committee, headed by former bureaucrat Vijay Kelkar and comprising some leading industrialist diagnosed the disease from which the industry has been suffering for decades.

India’s young defence scientists, technicians and producers are today the envy of the world. They are capable of designing, developing and producing best of the military machines, weapons and weapon systems, including the ones with unclear warheads. Their capabilities have been proved time and again during the last few years. They have designed, developed and produced latest types of missiles considered to be the main weapon in the present day war strategy. We owe this to the President of India APJ Abdul Kalam, formerly DRDO Chief, known as the “missile man”. Why missiles only. The DRDO has designed and developed latest state-of-the-art battle tanks, combat aircraft and even aircraft careers for Navy. 

Unfortunately, however, such designed and developed machines could not be produced all these years for various reasons.   First among them is the fact that purchases from abroad have their own attraction, commissions et all, at the cost of national interest.  Secondly, the defence industry is quite different from the civil industry. A modern and sophisticated military equipment has a large number of components, running into thousands and that too of different heads like electronics, ammunition, fire-power and all that.  In other words, no one set of scientists and technicians can possibly undertake production of all components. Importantly no defence production unit in the world, even in the highly advanced countries, can produce all the components under one roof--- and one unit. Inter-dependence is a necessity in defence industry.

Some years ago, I distinctly remember to have been told in Bangalore that a U.S. defence production company was importing from India certain small components for production of a highly-sophisticated gas-turbine engine. The explanation of this import was simple.  It was economical for the American company to import that particular component from India or anywhere else, because it was pointless to set-up a special production facility at high costs. But this must have been one of the rare smaller components. The private sector industry there does not mind setting up production units even for smaller components, because the entire U.S. defence industry is export-oriented and is a major component of the national economy.

Things are quite different in India’s defence industry.  Here a produce is sold for a limited purpose, and the setting up of a special facility for its production is not economically viable. And, therefore, no private sector would like to spend his capital for producing such components for defence armament which have limited market and no profitability, yet require high capital investment. Thus, it becomes necessary to go abroad for direct import of the components required for even wholly indigenously designed and produced machinery. Also, and quite significantly, a tendency has fast grown over the years for Defence PSUs personnel rushing abroad to “see the world” and take all the advantages of purchasing abroad.

The Defence Ministry, the DRDO and the defence public sector undertakings have been making efforts to reduce import contents in defence equipment for decades. It has been realized all these years that the country cannot afford to depend entirely on imports for its defence requirements, and that self-reliance cannot be achieved without proper participation and commitment in national effort of the civil sector. It is a fact that the Defence PSUs which alone produce at present military equipment have to depend on others for a large number of components. In their case the dependence is on imports--- and not on the civil or the private sector, like in most other countries.

This situation which the country’s defence industry faces today raises several issues. Two among them are more significant, requiring examination in depth.  The percentage of indigenous component is a misnomer, an entirely misused terminology. Two, it is not economically viable in the present-day context to involve the private sector in the production of components for defence machinery, being designed and produced indigenously.  The industrialists in the private sector are actually “traders” in India, whose only motive of activity is profit and money-making.  They cannot really take on a production which has a limited and fast-changing market like the defence equipment market at home and abroad.  If they change their attitude and become partners in national effort for security, then only can their partnership initiative succeed.

In sum, if the scientists of the DRDO and its laboratories are given the required inputs, sans the politics of the file-pushers and policy-makers in the Government, India’s defence industry is capable of producing the latest military machines wholly indigenously with, of course, the cooperation of the private sector industry.  As pointed out earlier, no military machine in the world can be produced under one roof.  The practice for always running for imports should be stopped and the country’s self-reliance efforts stepped up. Why spend in foreign exchange when the required equipment can be produced at house.  Do not play the blame game, instead set the defence production industry right. ---INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Defence Notes

New Delhi, 27 November 2006

Sino-Indian Ties

MILITARY ANGLE TO HU’s VISIT

By B.K. Mathur

Yet another round of talks between the top leaders of India and China in New Delhi the other day ended in the same tone as it should be: sweet words from the two neighbours, strategic competitors, or even adversaries in a balance of power game in Asia.  Chinese President Hu Jintao offered to India trust and friendship.  He went a step forward than statements by other Chinese leaders in the past.  He saw relations with India not as a matter of political expediency but from “a strategic long-term perspective”. Hu used the same words in Islamabad the very next day, but with a difference, as seen from the military point of view.

In Pakistan, Islamabad and Lahore, Hu’s body language was entirely different. The Chinese President was given a red carpet welcome reserved only for royalty from Saudi Arabia. He was also given the highest civilian award, Nishan-e-Pakistan. The Pakistan-China relations worked on a plane completely different from Beijing’s ties with New Delhi, with which long-standing disputes remain pending. With Pakistan there is no outstanding issue. It is always cementing to new levels military and strategic relationship between the two countries.  Pakistan and China signed a Memorandum of Understanding for a long-term collaboration in defence production.

The defence projects include the production of an airborne early warning surveillance system (AWACS). The two countries have also agreed on collaboration and co-development of military aircraft manufacturing and related fields. Already, the Pakistan Air Force is collaborating with a Chinese aviation company, CATIC, in the co-development and production of JF-17 Thunder fighter aircraft. Pakistan is actually set to get the first batch of eight medium-technology fighter jets from China next year and would start its production indigenously from 2008-09. Pakistan is also reportedly providing China logistic support from the military angle.

In fact, this may turn out to be a dangerous development in the region. China is talking with Pakistan to build a rail route and an energy pipeline linking the two countries and eventually turning the Chinese-built Gwadar port in Pakistan into a landing point for international cargo bound for western China through Baluchistan. Beijing which built the 800-km Karakoram highway connecting the two countries in 1978 has also agreed to rebuild and broaden the highway to carry more load. The purpose obviously is to link both Qasin and Gwadar with Xinjing province of China.  The railway and highway plans have more strategic objectives than commercial moves.

Against this backdrop, President Hu’s visit to Pakistan provides sufficient cause for worry to India’s defence planners--- and the need for early resolution of the long-standing border dispute. Ever since Rajiv Gandhi visited China as the Prime Minister in December 1988, after a gap of 24 years, the Chinese efforts have always been to delink the territorial dispute with the overall relationship between the two countries. And this is exactly what President Hu sold to the Indian leaders last week.  But the fact remains that the boundary dispute continues to be a major irritant, because it is over the region’s most strategic territory over the mighty Himalayas from the military point of view. Evidently, therefore, it is in the interest of both Beijing and Pakistan to keep the dispute pending and under negotiation for “early settlement”, as Hu “hoped” last week.

 The Chinese have taken an “offensive” on this issue in an attempt to claim a large-chunk of Indian territory and make India to agree on a package deal. The latest move on these lines was made by the Chinese Ambassador in New Delhi on the eve of Hu’s visit. Beijing’s stand is thus required to be studied in its historical perspective.  Presently, the whole issue is being examined by “Special Representatives” of the two countries.  These representative need to go back to historical facts and prolonged correspondence between the two governments, as contained in as many as eleven White Papers, published by the Government of India from March 1954 to January 1965.

In its effort to gain military advantage, Beijing does not accept the McMahon Line in the eastern sector, despite the fact that India had made it clear in 1959 that it does not accept the claim that the entire Sino-Indian boundary had not been formally drawn and that the western sector of the boundary was worked out way back in the 17^th century.  As to the eastern sector, the Chinese argument is that the boundary was drawn up at the Simla Convention in 1914 between Britain and Tibet local authorities. Documents now available show that the parties at the Simla Convention were Britain, China and Tibet.  All three had accepted the Mcmahon Line, China now describes it as “imaginary” and says that it never recognized Britain’s territorial claims of Tibet.  At that time a claim of 90,000 Sq. km of territory was never made.

At the Simla Convention, the task of defining the boundary in the eastern sector was entrusted to Sir Henry McMahon, Secretary to the Government of India in the Foreign and Political Department. The Line drawn by Sir Henry is 1040 km long from the trijunction of Bhutan, India and Tibet to the trijunction of Burma, India and Tibet. It runs through the crest of the Himalayan ranges which forms part of the watershed of the Brahmaputra. The Line’s continuity is, however, broken by the Lohit, Dihang, Subarnasiri and Nyanjang rivers. Sir Henry’s boundary was accepted by the Tibetan Government in 1914 without any reservation. The Chinese too did not raise any objection until 1954, since when they are having their own maps.

Beijng wants a negotiated settlement on the basis of its maps which keep on changing every now and then. The latest map shows 90,000 sq. km territory in the eastern sector, meaning the entire Arunachal Pradesh. All this to offer some concession in the eastern sector which could be balanced in the western sector. The latter sector suits the Chinese, because militarily the Ladakh area and the Aksai Chin region provide them some kind of control over the Himalayas for strategic reasons. Evidently, therefore, it becomes strategically necessary for New Delhi to resolve the boundary dispute at the earliest, without playing into the hands of the Chinese.

It is encouraging that President Hu at least showed during his visit to New Delhi his keenness to resolve the border dispute as early as possible. Equally encouraging is that both India and China believe that their border problem cannot be resolved by force.  But any initiative for a negotiated settlement must be taken in its proper perspective, keeping the historical and other factors in view.  Expression of mere sentiments will not suddenly resolve a long-standing problem which has defied solution so far.  The early settlement of the dispute can open the door for a genuine friendly Sino-Indian relationship and a lasting peace in the region. ----INFA

                                     (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Defence Notes

New Delhi, 13 November 2006

Towards Growing Might At Sea

TASK AHEAD OF NEW NAVY CHIEF

By B.K. Mathur

Indian Navy has now a new Chief in Suresh Mehta and, importantly, he will remain at the helm for nearly three years, till August 2009.  He is equal to the task, like any of his predecessors; otherwise he would not have got to the top of the ladder, to the Admiral’s rank. Name any of the challenging assignment in the sea force and he has held it satisfactorily after having been commissioned into the force in July 1967: Chief of Personnel at the headquarters, Director-General Coast Guards and Flag Officer Commanding-in-Chief Western and Eastern Naval Commands. His task as the Chief is all the more challenging at the time when India’s Navy is no more a “silent force”.  It is moving towards India’s growing might at sea.

How well and fast the Navy grows under Mehta would depend upon the way the Admiral handles the system which has its limitations under the defence policy makers and babudom. The sea force, like the army and the air force, had its ups and downs.  It remained a small and silent force until December 1971. But its exploits in the war against Pakistan that year gave it a new dimension.  It thrilled the country with the Naval exploits and punch off Karachi and then Visakhapatnam where Pakistan’s lethal submarine was sunk.  That operation prompted the Navy to traditionally celebrate its day on December 4. The neglected service began to get the Government’s greater attention, and its modernization and upgradation plans began to be taken up in earnest.

Plans after plans have been made for updating and modernizing the Navy since 1971, raising two important questions: Has the Navy become a super-power? And, has the resource crunch all these years affected the force’s long-term development, keeping in view the fact that the gestation period in the sea force is quite long.  To the first question, the Navy Chief Jayant Nadkarni had reacted as the Chief of the Naval Staff some 16 years ago.  The Western media’s description of the Indian Navy as the “Super Navy” was nothing but a “crescendo of chorus” by vested interests”. What had actually happened was that the expansion was confined to replacement of fighting ships and systems earlier phased out.

Actually, the Navy has suffered all these years for lack of understanding of two realities.  One, the growth should be directly proportionate to the country’s maritime interests. India’s sea force is undoubtedly eighth largest in the world, but don’t forget that India has the fifth largest coastline in the world---7,650 kms and an area of over two million sq. km. of Exclusive Economic Zone.  Secondly, it needs to be understood that in a full-fledged sea warfare, the operation could spread to thousands of kilometers throughout the length and breadth of the sea where a battle might take place.  In the Indian Ocean and the seas around India, there are a number of powers operating with highly sophisticated machinery and lethal weapon systems.

For this kind of a challenging task at sea, “the Navy has not been doing enough open ocean work”, as Admiral Madhavendra Singh had stated as the CNS three years ago. The force has yet to be made a real blue-water Navy, which it really is not so, notwithstanding the implementation of several modernization plans. The Navy has to be built around three aircraft-carriers, at least 30 destroyers and frigates and replenishment ships.  But where do we stand now?  The strength of the naval force is not even what it used to be in the 1980s and 90s, where we had two aircraft-carriers and were preparing for a big underwater Navy and missile boats.  One of the carriers Vikrant has retired. The other one, Viraaat has, no doubt, been renovated at high cost but has a limited life. Another second-hand carrier has been negotiated with Russia, but God only knows when it will deck into the Indian coast, duly refitted and upgraded.

Successive Naval Chiefs have talked of big plans for the force’s development. But none had much to show when he relinquished his charge.  Admiral Arun Prakash, who handed the Navy to Mehta on October 31 last too was not very happy about the strength of the force. He had admitted in an interview to the Indian Defence Review that the Navy’s force level will keep on reducing till 2012. He had disclosed in 2004 that while the Government had approved maintenance of the, then, existing force levels, the de-commissioning of warship would outnumber new inductions. He had blamed the situation on inadequate augmentation of the force between 1985 and 1996.

Another very significant point he made repeatedly in that interview was that the Navy suffered a force imbalance because a large proportion of the Fleet comprises “brown water” or smaller ships.  This needs to be rectified with the addition of more “blue water” capability.  In this context, almost all Naval Chiefs in recent years have regretted that the Government was not willing to give the Navy a long-term assurance of funds.  Remember, the Naval planning requires at least a 15-year plan which the late Jagjiwan Ram and former President Venkataraman had envisaged as Defence Ministers.

But that has not happened so far, year after year, decade after decade.  It takes a lot of time to negotiate expensive purchases of military machines and systems from abroad. So also is the case with indigenous production.  This really is the reason why considerable amount of annual defence budget has lapsed during the last few years.  Plans are made at the budget time, but are not implemented during the budget year. More about this development another time.  At the moment, let us see what Admiral Mehta is required to pursue for the force development and what priorities of acquisitions are needed to be drawn up. His predecessor had done enough in this direction; now those plans need to be followed up faithfully.

Admiral Mehta’s priority is clear: Consolidation of the Navy’s rapidly transforming role from being just a silent service to a potent maritime power in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) to further the country’s geostrategic objectives.  He will have to ensure that the force levels do not fall below the present 130 warships and 16 submarines. These levels are to be kept up, given the fact that over 70 existing warships would have to be gradually replaced in the next 10-15 years. The replacement process could start satisfactorily for the sea force only when the present plans for acquisition or indigenous production of warships get started right now. At present the Navy has under production or order as many as 33 warships from foreign or indigenous sources.  In addition to this, the requirement would be for another 30 ships in the next 10-15 years.

The spadework to meet the requirements 10-15 years later should start right now.  And for that handling of the file-pushers in the Defence Ministry would be required.  In addition to the need for keeping up the force level, Mehta’s Naval headquarters must also keep chasing the already kicked-off Rs.18,798 crore project to build Scorpine submarines at the Mazagon Docks between 2012 and 2017. The project for the indigenous production of the air defence ships is to be speeded up, since the two more of these would be required even after the induction of the refurbished Admiral Gorshkov carrier from Russia.  A challenging task indeed, Admiral.---INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)