Round The World

New Delhi, 2 February 2009

Sri Lankan-LTTE War

RESOLVE HUMANITARIAN CRISIS AS WELL

By Monish Tourangbam

(School of International Studies, JNU)

As the 48-hour ultimatum given by the Rajapaksa government to the LTTE to free the civilians comes to an end, with no positive response, the fate of the civilians is vulnerably uncertain. The Indian establishment had clearly welcomed this presidential announcement as a good step towards the safety of the civilians. But, the LTTE Political Head B. Nadesan has instead termed the offer, as a measure to “deceive the international community”. And, possibilities of solving the humanitarian crisis proved abortive with the Sri Lankan Human Resource and Disaster Management Minister Mahinda Samarasinghe announcing there was no LTTE response.

In lieu to better the bilateral relations between the two countries and to allay the concerns of domestic elements in India, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee recently visited Sri Lanka. Giving word to India’s denouncement of terrorism in any form anywhere in the world, Mukherjee reiterated that the LTTE was a banned terrorist organization and there will be no reprieve for the group.

The Sri Lankan government’s onslaught on the Tigers has coincided with attacks on India’s commercial capital, Mumbai. This has contributed to New Delhi’s unflinching support for the Rajapaksa administration in its fight against agents of terror. At the same time, the fate of the civilians trapped in the war zone is the major concern of the international community and the UPA government specifically. During the visit, a discussion of the 13^th Amendment to the Sri Lankan took place. The amendment was made after the Rajiv Gandhi-J.R. Jayawardene Pact in 1987, which aimed to provide devolution and autonomy to the Northern and Eastern provinces. Rajapaksa assured Mukherjee that this would be the ‘area of his urgent attention” and he would try to “explore the possibilities and improve the conditions there”.

He also conveyed India's readiness to participate in the reconstruction of northern Sri Lanka "to overcome the ravages of war" and also to "lay the economic and political foundations of a strong peace in which all communities feel comfortable" in the island nation. "I stressed that military victories offer a political opportunity to restore life to normalcy in the Northern Province and throughout Sri Lanka, after 23 years of conflict," Mukherjee told reporters in Colombo. On the other hand, the Sri Lankan government has reassured him that they would respect the "safe zones" and minimize the effects of conflict on Tamil civilians.

Mukherjee did well in playing down the “Tamil Pressure” as a factor of his visit to the island nation and emphaised on India’s singular concern with the safety of the civilians and the necessities of diplomacy but domestic events, no doubt, made it impossible to delay his visit. He  acknowledged Rajapaksa’s goodwill of extending a personal invitation to an all-party delegation from Tamil Nadu led by Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M Karunanidhi and AIADMK leader J Jayalalithaa to visit Sri Lanka and see for themselves the situation on the ground and to persuade the LTTE to lay down arms and join the democratic mainstream.

Even as the DMK announced its satisfaction with the visit of Mukherjee to Colombo and the commitments he made, things are heating up in the streets of Tamil Nadu. A 26-year-old man, K Muthukumar set himself on fire at a central government office complex in Chennai on Thursday last after shouting slogans against the war in Sri Lanka. Emotions ran high at the venue where his body was kept, with social and political activists and students setting fire to the effigies of  Rajapaksa and Congress leaders and raising slogans condemning chief minister Karunanidhi and the Centre. BJP and Nationalist Congress Party have backed a newly-formed Sri Lankan Tamils Protection Movement's call for a general strike in the State on February 4 seeking ceasefire in Sri Lanka. The bandh will coincide with Sri Lanka’s Independence Day.

Political parties in the State have been pressurizing the Centre to push for a ceasefire in the island nation and ensure safety of Tamil civilians caught in the crossfire between the LTTE and the Sri Lankan government. Fearing unrest, the State government on January 31 closed all government and private colleges and hostels for an indefinite period. Elsewhere in Tamil Nadu, protesters torched a state-owned bus near Vellore, while 225 people were arrested in Thanjavur when they tried to lay siege on the Air Force station. They were protesting against the alleged use of the Air Force station for sending arms to Sri Lanka.

The Sri Lankan army has had a “string of victories” with reports pouring in of successful offensives in the Visuamadu area. Visuamadu and Puthukkuudiyiruppu are the two remaining settlements of the Tigers in the Mullaithivu district. The Rajapaksa government having successfully captured Kilinochchi- the administrative and political headquarters of the LTTE, the Elephant Pass at the mouth of Jaffna Peninsula and the total control of the A9 Highway, the fight to the end is obvious. According to Sri Lankan army Chief Sarath Fonseka, almost 95% of LTTE no longer exists. At least in territorial terms, Fonseka's claim cannot be challenged as Mullaittivu was regarded as LTTE's last bastion.

As the offensive against the LTTE nears its final days, the humanitarian fallout of the fight is raising major concerns in New Delhi. According to official estimates, there are around 1.2 lakh civilians trapped, who are being used as a human shield by the Tigers. But, according to the International Committee of Red Cross (ICRC), an estimated 2,50,000 people were trapped in a 200 sq.km area which is seeing intense fighting. The ICRC reported huge civilian death toll in the Wanni region and said that intensified fighting and violence was creating hurdles in evacuation of the wounded.

Despite the government’s attempt to demarcate a “safe area” and lead the civilians to safety during the 48-hours ultimatum only a 100-odd civilians managed to escape. But, in a bid to garner support for the continuation of its assault on the flagging Tigers, the government expressed confidence that entrapped civilians would have the confidence to move into the safe zones as the Sri Lankan army continued its march into the last two remaining settlements in Mullaithivu.

With the international community condemning the LTTE for the humanitarian crisis, the onus seems to be on the Tigers to release the civilians from the war zone. Human rights groups with signatories including Sri Lankan Democracy Forum, South Solidarity Group, U.K. and Committee for Democracy and Justice, U.K., has strongly accused and condemned the LTTE for the use of civilians as human shields.

As the Sri Lankan army moves forward planting its flag of military victory against the LTTE, the way in which the government resolves this humanitarian crisis assumes importance. It will be significant in future political efforts to bring about inter-community harmony, assuage the dissatisfaction of the Tamil minority and thus serve as an antidote to terrorism. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Economic Highlights

New Delhi, 30 January 2009

2009 Projections Worse

DEFLATION IS ROUND THE CORNER

By Shivaji Sarkar

Deflation is round the corner, warns Reserve Bank Governor D Subbarao. Seven months ago his predecessor YV Reddy had warned of a stagflation. Neither is ruled out. The Indian economy is going through a severe crisis and the Central bank says the period would last longer than it had expected.

The growth projections have been revised to 7 per cent by Pranab Mukherjee, who is standing in as the finance minister. The Central bank indicates further “downward bias”, in the words of Subbarao. So what are we looking at? Deflation-- a period of fall in the overall growth with fall in demand and prices. In some sectors like metals, the economy is facing it. The demand slump has dented Tata Steel. Its material costs has surged 80 per cent and sales have taken a hit.

Stagflation is fall in production – growth – but without a corresponding fall in prices. On the contrary prices move upwards. Most sectors are having this problem. Even RBI does not agree that prices are falling. In its latest Review of Monetary Policy, it has expressed concern over the rise in consumer price index (CPI). It touches 10.45 per cent for industrial workers to 11.14 per cent for rural and agricultural labourers.

The RBI is not surprised. The wholesale price index (WPI), which has come down to 5.64 per cent – though of late showing a sign of increase-- represents only 17 per cent of items. Prices of food articles continue to rise. This affects generation of demand for manufactured and other items. It leads to job losses and further reduction in demand. It is a vortex.

Respite is not seen. “The globalization is a double-edged sword”, says Subba Rao. India had some benefits of it but in times of crisis it has to take a hit. The economy could not be insulated, he adds, and could only be partially moderated through regulatory measures. This is so because the capacity of the Indian system is limited. Various regulators do not act on pro-active basis. They only react to situations and try to show perceptive neutrality. The RBI lifted the ban imposed in 2003, on bank auditing by Price Waterhouse Coopers at a crucial time, when it was found to be collaborating with Satyam.

Growth is contracting the world over. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been continuously bringing down its projections. In market exchange terms deceleration is likely to touch 1.1 per cent or even go below it. It forecasts job losses so far in the most vibrant western economies. The IMF has cautioned that the downside risks to these global growth projections have further intensified. The question is: Would affluence in the West be replaced by poverty? Nobody says it but all imply it.

This poses another stark question. The centre of economic activity might be replaced in the not so long a term. Western economies had thrived on the principle of exploitation of Asia and Africa through colonial and sub-colonial rule. Their domination had created an economy that sustained on severe disparity. More Asia and Africa suffered; more was the growth or development of the affluent West. It was an unsustainable model. But the nature’s corrective procedures are also not easy to understand.

The world is now keen to understand whether the recent change in economic outlook would change the fortunes of Indian and other Asian economies or not. The Asian economies apparently are in a state of shock. They are unable to project a path on their own. Be it India, China or Japan – they are all in a quandary. Having integrated their economies with the colonial or neo-colonial masters, they are yet to come out of the daze.

These economies need to view the present crisis as an opportunity and snatch the opportunities to create a future equitable model of growth. They should realise that the world economy requires new drivers. They should plan to take the driver’s seat.

Unfortunately, they are looking towards the new US President Barack Obama for bringing in a change in fortunes. Well, are they not backing the wrong horse? He has indicated in many words that to tide over the domestic crisis they would need to take recourse to the swadeshi mantra. It simply means that the jobs and the growth that had spilled over to some parts of Asia would now be contracted to make the US the hub of new activity. Therefore, he is likely to devise policies and a framework to insulate the US economy from global upsurge.

This is contrary to what the RBI governor is saying. If the US could consider insulation or quarantining of its economy, it is all the more reason for India to mull over it. The country has been following the West for too long a time. Now it must chart out its own course. When someone is sick, he is quarantined. The Indian economy is sick but doctors want to keep it under shroud. It is economic ‘ostpolitic’ – ostrich like policy. Insulation from the global system is required to formulate a new policy.

Sadly, the Indian system seems to lack the will. In the political front, the nation is failing to deal with a rogue State like Pakistan and on the economic front it does not show the inclination and courage to chart out a new course.

The RBI policy regrettably is restricted to issuing of grim warnings. It has cautioned about severe credit crunch. Banks are not listening to its dictat. External borrowing sources are drying up. Worse, the Government borrowings are going beyond limits– Central government borrowings rose by Rs 74,201 crore more than the budget projections of Rs 178,575 crore. It touched Rs 252,154 crore. In addition, State governments have borrowed Rs 46,327 crore. Correspondingly tax and non-tax revenue collections are falling and expenses are growing.

Clearly all this indicates that the nation has to gird up its loins. Economic indicators point to overall contraction, fall in urban consumption, stagnation in rural consumption, slowing down of industrial and economic production and fall in exports of textile, jewellery, commodities and even software. In the absence of good drivers, 2009 is likely to be far worse than the previous year. ---INFA.

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Open Forum

New Delhi, 29 January 2009

New US Administration

Unnecessary meddling with KASHMIR

By Dr. P. K. Vasudeva

Recent statements made by influential figures in the Obama team that have sought to club Jammu and Kashmir with other conflict-torn regions of the world and indicate the need for international mediation between India and Pakistan, are reasons for concern in New Delhi. “Make no mistake about it. Increasing pressure will be brought on India over Kashmir,” cautions Satish Chandra, former deputy national security adviser.

The Government is apparently nervous about the policies the new US administration under President Barack Obama, could pursue on Kashmir, CTBT and other tricky issues, unlike the Bush presidency, where it had little to worry about. On Obama’s taking over charge as President, foreign secretary Shiv Shankar Menon’s reaction that he was ‘nervous about this change,' is natural.  

In a sense, the confusion started with Obama when he said in a pre-election interview last year that he was open to the idea of a special envoy on Kashmir to resolve an issue. This would leave Pakistan’s armed forces free to concentrate on combating the Islamist extremists in its tribal areas and neighbouring Afghanistan.

While it would be premature to make any comment at this point, there are all-too-real concerns that the Obama administration may bring the Kashmir issue to the fore on the "flawed assumption" that its resolution could be an incentive to Islamabad to fight wholeheartedly in the US campaign to liberate Afghanistan from the clutches of the Taliban. Further, Obama has yet to appoint key functionaries dealing with the region. Both the US Ambassador to India David C Mulford and US Assistant Secretary of State for Central and South Asia Richard Boucher have been asked to stay on for some more time till the new administration finds suitable replacements.

Perhaps a wait and watch policy would be best as suggests former secretary, External Affairs Ministry K C Singh. "We should not jump to conclusions. Obama's position on Pakistan is a work in progress," he said. "It will be a diplomatic challenge, but we should be more assertive about projecting our position on Kashmir." However, there are enough indications for New Delhi to up its diplomatic defences and make it clear to Washington and London that any intrusive diplomacy over the Kashmir issue will not succeed as it is a bilateral issue and Kashmir is an integral part of India.

The first concrete sign of potential activism on Kashmir came when British Foreign Secretary David Miliband tried to link J&K and Mumbai terrorism during his recent visit to Delhi. His remarks came barely a week before Obama took charge as President. In addition, Miliband also denounced the Bush war on terror as "misleading and misplaced", remarks that were seen as an echo of some pronouncements coming from the Obama team.

"Miliband was not just speaking for himself. He has been in touch with Obama people," is Satish Chandra’s explanation. He also talked of "incentivising" Pakistan for its cooperation in the battle against terrorism on its western flank that was a strategic priority for the West. However, if it was a freak view point of Miliband, there was not much to worry. New Delhi has consistently opposed the appointment of a special US envoy for Kashmir and amply made it known to Miliband that Kashmir was a bilateral issue between India and Pakistan.

During Obama’s election campaign, Susan Rice, ambassador-designate to the United Nations and an adviser on foreign policy to the new President, articulated this problematic position the next day when she clubbed together the Balkans, Cyprus, Golan Heights and Kashmir as conflict hotspots that required the UN to play "a critical role in forestalling renewed fighting".

Delhi also has reason to be upset over the way the US has been pressurising it to be more "restrained" in the wake of the Mumbai attacks, while it goes around giving a clean chit to the alleged involvement of Pakistani official agencies in the Mumbai carnage.

The US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has already announced a tripling of economic aid to Pakistan, which many here fear will go the way of the over $10- billion given by the Bush administration to the Musharraf administration. In fact, it was Obama who said that the US funds were being diverted to fund militancy against India. It is unclear as to what gives the US hope this time round that its aid will not meet the same fate.

The Obama Administration has defended the tripling of aid saying it will act as a leverage to get firmer commitments on combating terror from the Pakistan government and bolster the civilian government. However, there are some elements in the evolving position of the Obama team on Pakistan that gives New Delhi some hope. Senator John Kerry, chair of the influential Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has spoken about the US' new thrust on bringing Pakistan’s ‘spy agency’ ISI under civilian control. Whichever way Obama's position on Pakistan and Kashmir shapes up over the next few months, New Delhi is ready to take on the diplomatic challenge. Kashmir is a bilateral issue. That's our position and we will make that clear again and again.

Remember that Obama had made it known after he won the presidential election that he would appoint a special envoy for Kashmir. Then, last week, in her testimony to the US Congress, Rice called Kashmir as one of the ' global hot spots'. In fact, in one of her earlier statements, Rice had said that ‘Kashmir, along with Chechnya and Iraq, is an active recruiting ground for al-Qaeda.’

While it is natural for the US to give primacy to its strategic interests, former foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal is of the firm opinion that it does not mean India should sacrifice its national interests...This will undermine the Indo-US strategic partnership developed over years. India should not pay any price for the US Afghan policy.' Likewise former National Security Adviser Brajesh Mishra too has warned that Mr. Obama's personal involvement in the Kashmir issue would damage Indo-US relations. On the other hand, a Congressional Research Service report has warned the Obama administration should stay away from the Kashmir issue as it could anger India and raise Pakistan's expectations. Which way will it go eventually? –INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Sunday Reading

New Delhi, 22 January 2009

Impulsive Violence

RESEARCH PICKS ON THE BRAIN

By Suraj Saraf

Is the human brain the asli mujrim in today’s wide-spreading violence in the world? Scientists are trying to zero in on mysterious brain process to find answers.

The number of people who have been killed by terrorism around the world were 80,498, an increase of 40 per cent in 2006 alone. This startling revelation comes out in a compilation assessing violence around the world by the National Counter Terrorism Centre of the US State Department. In 2005, the figure stood at 14,618.

While this report pertained only to one aspect i.e terrorism, figures of violence worldwide revealed in the first such comprehensive report “World report on violence and health” by World Health Organisation in 2000, were phenomenal at 1.6 million annually. These included 8,15,6000 suicides, 5,20,000 homicides and 5,10,000 war/civil strife related deaths. Over 90% of these deaths had occasioned in the developing countries. Sadly, there has been no further comprehensive report after this.  

No wonder there is worldwide concern over this blood-splitting. Despite attracting attention of social activists, religious servants, psychologists et al this problem of violence world-over has been on the rise. In the attempts to contain or end this blood and gore, studies being made by scientists for some years need mention here as these highlight brain-violence nexus.

According to a study by researchers at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Brookhaven National Laboratory, it is the level of a brain enzyme termed Monoamine Oxides (MAO) A that determines a person’s violent propensity or otherwise. A healthy person with lower levels of this enzyme exhibited more aggressive personality traits. The Brookhaven National Centre for Translational Neuroimaging held that this study is an example of how scientists are beginning to investigate the complex relationship between an individual’s biology and behaviour.

Study of MAO A levels in relation to violent behaviour and aggressiveness had been a research topic for over two decades. MAO A plays an important role in metabolizing neurotransmitters that affect human behaviour and the gene that regulates MAO A activity has already been associated with aggressive and violent behaviour.

Interestingly, the amount of MAO A activity in the brain of 37 healthy persons (under study) corresponded to the amount of aggression, they reported in a standard personality questionnaire to measure their verbal and non-verbal intelligence, depression and personality traits. Questions such as whether they frequently lost their temper, or enjoyed watching violent movies, measured their aggressiveness.

Accordingly, the less MAO A the persons under study had, the more they answered ‘yes’ to statements about taking advantage of others and causing them discomfort. The findings corroborate the relevance of brain MAO A in an aggressive personality. If this model of understanding is tested on individuals, who engage in violent behaviour (such as domestic violence), it should show promise in the future for pharmacological intervention against abnormal violence.

According to another recent research, strides in understanding human brain chemistry and genetics are giving scientists hope that they may be able to defuse violent behaviour to avoid tragedies such massacre in Virginia University. The incident, the deadliest school shooting case in U.S. history, occurred last April, wherein a 23-year-old man shot dead 38 persons on the campus and committed suicide.

“There is no doubt in my mind that if we could have examined his brain we would have found anomalies, and we would have been able to suggest remedies for him to get therapies,” said neurologist and researcher Dr. Allansiegal at the University of Medicine of New Jersey. “We might have been able to avoid the tragedy….if he had been treated properly in the hospital setting.”

Over some 40 years, clinical research and animal testing, particularly on cats, has shown that there are special zones in the brain linked to aggression and violence. The front region of the brain or the prefrontal cortex, including the limbic system, appears to play an important role in violent behaviour.

The killer Charless Whiteman who gunned down 16 persons in the University of Texas in the 60’s was found to have a tumour in the temporal lobe in the region of the limbic system. Apparently, the link between the prefrontal cortex and violence was first revealed in 1848 in the case of a railroad worker, Phiness Gage, whose skull was impaled by an iron rod in an explosion, damaging the front part of his brain. Gage survived the accident but his behaviour radically changed, with his formerly respectful, sensitive manner replaced by an impulsive and aggressive personality.

Neurologists believe that the frontal region regulates and controls aggression and violent impulses. A brain imaging study of four murderers found evidence that in most cases the prefrontal cortex and some deeper brain areas, including the amygdale, functioned abnormally.

According to Klause Micsek, a neuroscientist at Tufts University, serotonin is a neurotransmitter in the central nervous system, which in low level has been associated with several disorders. A similar study earlier in America had underpinned the interplay between several distinct brain regions, namely orbital frontal cortex, the anterior cingulate cortex and the amygdale. Amygdale, a tiny but highly influential portion of the brain is involved in the production of a fear response and other negative emotions.

This study had underlined that the human brain is wired with natural checks and balances that controls negative emotions, but a breakdown in this regulatory system appears to heighten the risk of violent behaviour.

As part of a special report on violence, UW Madison psychologist, Richard Davidson and his colleagues, analysed brain imagining data from a diverse group of studies on violent subjects and those predisposed to violence. The study focused on people diagnosed with aggressive personality disorder, childhood brain injuries and convicted murderers. They found common neurological disorders among the over 500 subjects, whose brains did not have the ability to properly regulate emotions.

Interestingly, a similar brain process has been implicated in a number of mental health problems, including depression and anxiety disorders. This newfound connection between violence and the brain dysfunction has thus opened a new avenue of studying and possibly treating violence and aggression.

One of the core findings dealt with the interplay between several distinct brain regions, namely the orbital frontal cortex, the anterior singulate cortex and the amygdale. While the first plays a crucial role in constraining impulsive outbursts, the second recruits other brain regions in the response to conflict and the third is involved in production of a fear response and other negative emotions.

The researchers found that normal brain activity in the orbital and anterior regions were blunted or entirely absenting many of the study group, while the amygdale showed normal or heightened activity. The inability of the two brain regions to effectively counteract the response of the amygdale may help explain how threatening situations can become explosive in some people.

A major strength of this research was in the range of people studied and consistency of the results. Researchers found dysfunction in the common brain regions in reviews of brain imaging data from 41 murderers, a study group suffering from aggressive impulsive personality disorder and a group diagnosed with anti-social personality disorders. They also reviewed data from two individuals who had suffered early damage to the two regions of the brain in question. Both had shown history of verbal and physical abusiveness and intermittent explosive bursts of anger.

This research also discerned a large group of subjects who had a genetic deficit that causes a disruption in the brain’s serotonin levels. The serotonin system employs many of the brain regions described above and has been linked to increased aggression. Analysis had shown that these emotion-controlling brain regions showed less activity in the individuals who carried this genetic abnormality.

Undoubtedly, this study could recast the way society looks at impulsive violence, by defining it as a mental health issue. Clearly, “emotion regulation is extremely significant for a whole constellation of problems people encounter.” ---INFA

(Copyright, India News And Feature Alliance)