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Political Diary
WANTED: OPPOSITION THAT WORKS, By Inder Jit, 5 December 2023 |
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REWIND
New Delhi, 5 December
2023
WANTED: OPPOSITION
THAT WORKS
By Inder Jit
(Released on 23 June
1981)
The Opposition has
none but itself to blame for coming to grief once again. It seems to have
learnt nothing and unlearnt nothing from its bitter experience. The final
results of the recent by-elections show that the Opposition parties could have
done a lot better if only these had come to some understanding between
themselves. In UP alone, the Opposition together polled more votes than the
Congress (I) in three Lok Sabha seats: Allahabad, Bareilly and Mirzapur. But it
had lost the battle even before the first shot was fired. Mrs. Gandhi need not
have taken the trouble she took to campaign for her party candidates. But as
India’s shrewdest politician she understood the importance of the by-elections
and went all out to win them. Psychologically, triumph at the polls was vital
for her. Prices have spurted all round since she returned to power. Law and
order situation has deteriorated. Unemployment has continued to mount. It was,
therefore, imperative for her to prove that the people still have faith in her.
And, there is no viable alternative to the Congress (I) yet.
The Opposition’s
latest poll debacle has brought together the leaders of the Lok Dal, Congress
(U), Bharatiya Janata Party and Janata Party --- at least in issuing a joint
statement. Mr. Charan Singh, Mr. Devaraj Urs, Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee and Mr.
Madhu Dandwate have asserted that “the age of free democratic elections is
over” and it was time for all those committed to the democratic process to sit
up and take serious note. “Unlimited and unimaginable amounts of money,”
according to them, had been distributed in the by-elections which were also
marked by “blatant misuse of government machinery and police, wholesale
rigging, booth capturing and unabashed violence.” Further, for the first time
in free India, the Prime Minister had canvassed in the by-elections, broken a
convention and “intimidated” the electorate. All in all, the Congress (I) had
“gone to any extent” to ensure its victory and thereby sown the “seeds of
anarchy” and made a “mockery of parliamentary democracy.”
The charges are grave
and unprecedented. Significantly, the CPI General Secretary, Mr. Rajeswara Rao,
too, has accused the Congress (I) of “blatant misuse of official machinery,
violation of all democratic norms and values, use of money power and
goondaism.” Many of these charges will require to be checked for veracity. One
thing alone is established. Mrs. Gandhi violated what she herself described as
a convention by campaigning in the by-elections. Some apologists for the ruling
party have argued that it was not realistic to expect the Congress (I) to go to
the polls without its star vote-catcher canvassing for votes. Yet, the fact
remains that the Prime Minister’s campaign at a time when the Congress (I) is
enjoying a big majority at the Centre and in UP and elsewhere amounted to
telling the voters: Vote for the Congress (I) or else. The convention ensures
what the Constitution provides: a poll which is not only free and fair but also
without fear! Nehru upheld it boldly and refrained from campaigning, for
instance, in the Lok Sabha by-elections from Amroha, Kannauj and Rajkot in 1963
even though he wanted to keep Acharya Kripalani, Dr. Lohia and Mr. Masani out.
Nevertheless, a
question that needs to be put to Mr. Charan Singh, Mr. Urs, Mr. Vajpayee, Mr.
Dandwate and Mr. Rajeswara Rao and their parties is: why could they not see
what was possibly coming and take appropriate, advance measures to prevent
blatant misuse of machinery and much else that is alleged? Why could they not act
in time --- and why must they only react? The post-event statements of the five
leaders appear to have been issued mainly on the basis of many grave
allegations made by Mr. H.N. Bahuguna in regard to the by-election in
Pauri-Garhwal. Yet one fact stands out. Mr. Bahuguna had warned the country
days before the poll of what might happen in his constituency. Sadly enough, no
one took any serious notice of these warnings --- notice which could surely
have been taken by the Opposition parties singly or unitedly irrespective of
their personal attitude towards the controversial Mr. Bahuguna.
What could the
Opposition have done? The answer is not far to seek, as shown by a pre-poll
consensus among some thinking people anxious to strengthen our young democracy.
The Opposition, it was agreed, could have responded meaningfully to Mr.
Bahuguna’s virtual S.O.S. by dispatching a top-level team of observers
representing various parties to see things for themselves in Pauri-Garhwal
prior to the polling and on the poll day itself. In addition, the parties could
have associated with such a team non-party and non-power seeking organizations
such as Citizens for Democracy, Voters’ Council, Gandhi Peace Foundation and
Lok Sevak Sangh. The other words, the principal Opposition parties now wailing
over the alleged happenings in Pauri-Garhwal could have ensured that the vote
was free and fair irrespective of their attitude towards Mr. Bahuguna. It was
clearly for these proclaimed democrats to show what they stood for: an equal chance
at the polls to even one’s worst opponent.
The Opposition’s
characteristic failure to respond in time to the developing situation in
Pauri-Garhwal goes to the heart of the matter. (Mr. Bahuguna’s statements and
the alleged threat to his life are only one part of the story. Pauri-Garhwal
witnessed before the poll an incredible star-spangled show by the Congress (I):
Six State Chief Ministers and two score and more of other Ministers were
campaigning at one time in addition to Mrs. Gandhi). The Opposition must
realize that its approach to the public, by and large, leaves a great deal to
be desired. First things are not being tackled first. The Opposition today
lacks the people’s confidence as never before. In 1977, the common man asserted
his power and gave the Opposition a chance to prove its mettle. But this
opportunity was recklessly thrown away. Worse, the lesson of 1980 has not been
learnt. Its leaders have done little to rebuild their credibility and show they
are now putting the country before self.
Annual party sessions,
occasional public meetings and press conferences have their importance.
Unfortunately, however, most Opposition leaders, like those of the Government,
often read more into the crowds at their meetings than is justified. The common
man turns up at these meetings mainly to give himself a break from his normal
dreary existence. The public meeting is for him essentially in the nature of a
mela or a tamasha, depending upon the weather and his mood --- and no index of
his commitment. (A veteran recalls Nehru once asking Bakshi Ghulam Mohd about
his following in Kashmir. Pat came the reply: “25 lakhs.” Nehru “What about
Sheikh Sahib?” The Bakshi replied “25 lakhs.” Puzzled, Nehru remarked: “I don’t
understand.” The Bakshi replied: “Our people flock to listen to whosoever is on
the platform!”) A question which thus arises is: Is the Opposition doing enough
to build its credibility and offer itself as a viable alternative to the
Congress (I)?
The answer on both
scores is regrettably a big “no”. True, the Opposition leaders swear by various
democratic norms and ideals. However, they seldom follow up their proclaimed
commitments through convincing deeds, as shown, for instance, by the case of
the CPM Ministries in West Bengal and Kerala. As everyone knows, the Jyoti and
the Nayanar Ministries are under attack. New Delhi could, if it so willed,
carry out the threat held out by some Central ministers on visits to Calcutta
and Trivandrum and topple the two Governments. But the Opposition leaders, barring
an exception or two, have done little to stand up for the basic principles that
must guide Centre-State relations ---- and make it clear that they would oppose
tooth and nail any unconstitutional attempt to cut short a lawfully elected
Government. The Opposition parties may have their differences with the CPM. But
these could be agitated separately. The important thing for the Opposition is
to carry conviction among the masses that it means what it says and, if
necessary, is even willing to shed blood for the other man’s right to disagree.
The Opposition parties
could easily take a leaf out of the British book once again and prove that it
means business as shown by its newly formed Socialist Democratic Party.
Although born yesterday, the SDP has decided to put up one of its leading
lights from Warrington in a bye-election to the Commons on July 16. The
constituency is known to be a Labour stronghold and, according to Mrs. Shirley
Williams, it would be “a miracle if the SDP wins.” Nevertheless the party has
put up the well-known Mr. Roy Jenkins for the poll to prove, according to the
London Times, “the seriousness of its challenge to the Labour and the
Conservative parties.” Adds the Times: And, Mr. Jenkins took no persuading that
the honour of appearing as the first standard-bearer properly fell to him.” Mr.
Jenkins, for his part, underlined the importance of the fight when he said:
“our sights as a party are very high. We want to show a way out from the old
debilitating politics of outdated dogmatism, remote from the thoughts of
ordinary people and encouragement of false class confrontation which have
bedeviled this country”.
In sharp contrast, the
Opposition in India is not only failing itself but also the country. Like the
SDP in the UK, it should have moved heaven and earth to put up prestige fights
at least in some seats to carry conviction among the people about their serious
intent to challenge the Congress (I). The BJP, which seems to be viewed as an
emerging alternative, could have surely come forward with some top-level
candidates just to register a point, even if the other parties were unwilling
to oblige. The Janata, too, has allowed its case to go by default. But all this
need not cause despair. As the saying goes, there is always another day. The
Metropolitan Council elections in Delhi, which are already overdue, offer
another opportunity to the Opposition. Again, the Opposition parties could come
together in Parliament and help restore their credibility through coordinated
functioning on major issues. In the final analysis, there is a crying need
today for an Opposition which not only stands for parliamentary democracy but
also an Opposition that works.---INFA
(Copyright,
India News & Feature Alliance)
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Ladakh To Manipur – Billions Loss: MORE SILKYARAS IN THE MAKING By Shivaji Sarkar, 4 December 202 |
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Economic
Highlights
New
Delhi, 4 December 2023
Ladakh To Manipur – Billions Loss
MORE SILKYARAS IN THE MAKING
By Shivaji Sarkar
Ignoring
the Himalayan warnings has become a habit.Kedarnath tragedy lessons were never
learnt. Had it heard the Union Environment Ministry (UEM)advisories on road
construction-generated woes in the Rajya Sabha in 2018, perhaps many disasters,
across the country could have been avoided.The prevailing constructions from
Ladakh to Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur pose significant threat to the mountain
ecosystem.
Both the
World Bank and the Asian Development Bank wonder how Darjeeling, Shimla or
Mussoorie built by the British have simple, scenic disaster-resilient roads.
Losses
could only partially be measured in monetary terms. Stretches of Himachal
Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim, North Bengal or Manipur have been wiped off
during the last few years. Could any monetisation quantify the grievous losses?
According to UN ESCAP report, India suffered $3.2 billion losses largely due to
heavy rains and floods in 2021. Post 2013 Kedarnath tragedy losses were Rs
13000 crore in Uttarakhand alone. This year’s severe floods in Uttarakhand
caused irreparable losses. Himachal floods washed off large stretches of the
newly constructed roads. The felled tree logs that were dumped below the newly
constructed roads caused wide devastations as these floated with the swirling
waters.
In
2023-24, the National Highway Authority of India (NHAI)has been allocated Rs
162,207 crore--60 percent of the total road ministry budget and is 25 percent higher
than the previous year. Even maintenance expenses were increased by 44 percent
from Rs 900 crore to Rs1300 crore, apparently to offset continuous damages. The
state PWDs that do 50 percent of the repairs got Rs 280 crore against Rs 132 crore
a year back.All Himalayan states have approached the centre for large fundings
for reconstructions.
The 17
breathless days that the nation awaited rescue of 41 workers trapped from the
caved in Silkyara tunnel in Uttarkashi, have forced the government to study the
impact of road constructions. The 4.5 km tunnel is said to have no emergency safety
exits.
If the
2018 warning itself had been heard, nobody would have ventured on ill-advised
Char Dham road digging. The UEM warning was explicit. It said that most
landslides in “Manipur were ‘anthropogenically’ induced and were caused due to
several factors, including the ‘modification’ of mountain and hill slopes for
construction and road widening. The state witnessed six major landslides in
2018, three in 2017, one 2015 and four in 2010”. There were more during
subsequent years, the worst being the death of 61 persons at a massive
landslide at the Tulpul railway station construction for connecting to Thailand,
Malaysia and Singapore as part of the Trans Asian Railway. A GSI report
attributed it to activities in a “highly susceptible zone” at an extensive
slope cut for construction.
Ladakh
to Manipur today is a severe danger zone. Reckless tree felling, clearing of
vegetation and changing delicate Himalayan structure for large profits have
become the norm. Silkiyara is not the
first tunnel in Uttarakhand tocollapse. Tapovan tunnel flooding killing at
least 67 is forgotten. The Vishnuprayagproject that causedAlaknandato disappear
in a 5-km stretch is history and nobody listens to the drought that Karnaprayag
rail tunnel has caused in PanaiPokhri in the Chamoli district as the lone
stream has dried up.
The Rs
12500 crore, 889 km Char Dham project connecting the fragile Himalayas of
Kedarnath, Badrinath, Yamunotri and Gangotri has been controversial since launch
in December 2016. As feared heavy drilling, bulldozing and construction was
causing heavy subsidence, landslides and environmental damage in different
parts.Joshimathis in the news for this.
The
Himachal government document says roads to cost Rs 40000 crore and massive
disturbances to the state ecology.It means the system has not learnt from
mistakes. The 2023 summer floods caused extensive devastation and loss of lives
due to post-road construction change of environment. If more roads are
constructed, it means that the state could face worse consequences.
The damages
at Tulpul in Manipur were not caused by the disturbances in vulnerable slope
alone. The debris dumped, as in Himachal, blocked the natural water flow of the
rivers in areas with several geological fault lines. It tore apart s
geologically weak zones.
String
of dams in Uttarakhand mostly not far from road projects are emerging as
potential threats. The lakes formed in delicate areas are potential threats,
including the Tehri dam. It has added to reservoir-induced seismicity and
increased incidences of landslides observed in the reservoir rim.
Building
of dams in the Himalayas is not considered safe. The October cloudburst in
Sikkim, coupled with the melting of the Lhonak glacier at height of 17,100
feet, caused glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF). The sudden gushing waterswashed
away Teesta Stage 3 dam, known as Urja project. It led to massive destructions
downstream damaging thousands of buildings, wiped off roads and collapsed 111
major bridges. It claimed many lives, including those of army personnel.
Tehri
dam authorities claim that it could withstand earthquake of 8.5 magnitude on
Richter scale. The Supreme Court experts’ committee headed by Dr Ravi Chopra, Director
of People’s Science Institute, stated that several floods were aggravated by
hydroelectricity projects. The poor waste management aggravatesdisasters.
Professor James Brune, a prominent seismologist, said: “We have to conclude
that the proposed Tehri Dam's location is one of the most hazardous in the
world from the point of earthquakes”. He sounds prophetic. Does it mean
downhill, regions up to Rishikeshvulnerable, if it meets the Lhonak fate?
May be
those are extreme views. But the road and rail projects from Ladakh to Manipur
everywhere are having disastrous effect. To cite one, Adi Kailash in
Pithoragarh was recently inaugurated as a tourist point for viewing the Kailash
peak. Areas around were blasted to build roads and other facilities. Only days later,
on September 23, a hill came crashing down killing seven persons and changing
the topography of the region.
While
improvements are welcome but an end to the toll-levied massive greed is must to
preserve the pristine regions for the existence of the Himalayas. If the Himalayas
are lost to silly constructions, entire ecology of the subcontinent could alter
for the worse. In 1980, the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi had stopped the
Tehri dam construction, the government now should consider thawing all road, dam,
hydro and other construction activities. For small profits, nobody should be
allowed to play havoc with the
Himalayas.---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature
Alliance)
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‘Not Necessarily, By Accident’? By Rajiv Gupta, 2 December 2023 |
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Spotlight
New Delhi, 2 December 2023
‘Not Necessarily By Accident’?
By Rajiv Gupta
The nation celebrated the rescue of 41 workers from
the Silkyara Bend–Barkot tunnel in the Uttarkashi district of Uttarakhand. Once
the euphoria of successful effort settles, it will be time to ask whether the
tunnel collapse was preventable. The utility and impact of the answers will
depend on the questions we ask. Our conduct of post-accident inquiries into its
causes has been less than satisfactory. A discussion of how we have dealt with
railway accidents will illustrate this.
On October 29, 2023, there was a terrible train
accident involving a collision between the Vishakhapatnam-Palsa passenger
train, and the Vishakhapatnam-Rayagada passenger train between Alamanda and
Kantakapele in Andhra Pradesh which resulted in the death of 14 and several
more injured.
On June 02, 2023, over 290 passengers
lost their lives while around 1000 were injured in the train crash, involving
the Bengaluru-Howrah Superfast Express, the Shalimar-Chennai Central Coromandel
Express and a goods train.
Such accidents are published on the front pages in
newspapers and are on the national television news for a few days and then
lapse into a collective national apathy until the next catastrophe. The process
has become a ritual where politicians at local and national levels announce
payments to the families of the deceased and to the injured. This is followed
by a decision to initiate an enquiry into the causes of the accident. And then
we happily move on with our lives.
An inquiry conducted by the Commissioner of Railway safety
(CRS) regarding the second accident highlighted that the rear-collision of the
train caused due to the lapses in the signalling-circuit-alteration. It pointed
that these lapses resulted in wrong signalling. Consequently, seven officials
were suspended and proceedings were initiated against them. This probably would
be the last thing about the accident in the media.
The payment to the families is justified as compensation for the lapses
on the part of the railways. However, the findings of the inquiry by the CRS as
well as the ensuing action against seven officials merits discussion.
There has been significant amount of research analysing human errors
that result in accidents in a variety of situations from healthcare, to
aviation, and nuclear power plants. Some of the most respected work has been
done by James Reason and Charles Perrow. They have suggested that errors are of
two types: active errors and latent errors. Active errors occur at
the level of the frontline operators, and their effects are felt almost
immediately. An example of active error could be the failure of the signaling
system. Latent errors tend to be removed
from the direct control of the operator and include things such as poor design,
incorrect installation, faulty maintenance, bad management decisions, and
poorly structured organisations.
Active errors are related to the act of omission or commission that may
have been occurred when and where the accident happened. They do not tend to
affect any other area of the system at any other point in time. Latent errors
are prevalent throughout the system. They can, and do, lead to errors in
different parts of the system at different points in time and hence are more
consequential than active errors. In general, any inquiry that is constituted
after an accident tends to focus on active errors and not on latent, or
systemic errors.
There could be a variety of reasons for this. Latent errors are not
easily discernible. They typically involve the acts of omission and or
commission by higher level officials, and there could be a tendency to avoid
confrontation with powerful officials. It is much easier to pick an operator’s
mistake than to question the policy makers of the organisation. The end result
is that the underlying problems remain embedded in the system and will result
in future accidents and the same analysis would be repeated.
An audit report by the Comptroller and Auditor General
of India on Derailment of Trains in India for the years 2017-2021 makes for
some very interesting, as well as alarming, reading. In fact, after reading the report, it would
appear fortuitous that the number of accidents is not higher than what are
observed in practice. Some key points from the report will be discussed in this
article.
The report looked at several aspects of the operation
and maintenance of the rail system. One aspect deals with the inspection of
tracks with the help of Track Recording Cars (TRCs). The Indian Railway
Permanent Way Manual (IRPWM) provides that the Broad Gauge routes should be
monitored by TRCs as per prescribed frequencies dependent on the type of track.
The audit found that the shortfall in conducting the inspections varied from 30
to 100% across different zonal divisions. The best performing zonal division
could only perform 70% of the prescribed inspections. In 14 out of 18 divisions
the inspections performed were half, or less than half the prescribed
requirements, and in four divisions no inspections were carried out at all.
The report also mentions that a derailment of
Seemanchal Express occurred in February 2019. The TRC inspection over the
section was overdue by four months, which could have given vital inputs for
defects in the track which could have averted the accident. This is a clear
example of a latent error leading to an accident. An initial investigation
revealed that the accident was due to a fracture in the track, an active error.
But there has been no mention in the media about the lack of inspection, which
could have prevented the tragedy. The accident was waiting to happen.
Several examples of latent errors are presented in the
audit report. Some of these include shortfall in manpower, shortfalls in
training for maintenance personnel, lack of adequate safety equipment such as
helmets, torches, gloves for maintenance staff, non-adherence to recommended
methods of welding for tracks, non-completion of recommended track renewals, etc.
The Rashtriya Railway Suraksha Kosh (RRSK) was announced by the Ministry of
Finance in 2017-18 for safety related works of renewal, replacement and
augmentation of railway assets.
An analysis by the CAG revealed a reducing trend of
fund utilisation for track renewals, repairs, etc, while there was a growing misuse
of funds for non-priority areas such as purchase of crockery, passenger amenities
(lifts, escalators, extensions of platforms), salaries and bonuses, etc. The
report found that out of 1129 derailments during 2017-18 to 2020-21, 289
derailments (around 26%) were linked to track renewals. This amply suggests the
lack of safety focus on the part of the Railway management.
Over the four-year period covered by the report
(2017-2021), there were 217 consequential and 1800 other accidents. While
derailments formed the largest percentage of both categories of accidents
(65-70%), the second biggest cause of consequential accidents was fire. Despite
about 9% of consequential accidents being due to fire, it was found that no
fire extinguishers were provided in 62% of the coaches.
The government is moving ahead with ambitious plans
for high-speed rail connecting the cities. While we should be celebrating these
plans, nevertheless there is sufficient cause for concern regarding our ability
to maintain the existing railway assets, let alone the newer, more
sophisticated systems. We should not fall into the trap of thinking that we can
automate ourselves out of this mess. What is needed is better management at the
ground level and a real commitment to passenger safety from the government and
the top management of the railways. Until that happens, perhaps it might be
better to slow down. And it may be instructive to repeat the audit after a few
years to see to what extent the Railways have heeded the suggestions.---INFA
(Copyright, India News &
Feature Alliance)
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India’s Foreign Policy: CHAMPIONING PEACE, By Dr. D.K. Giri, 1 December 2023 |
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Round The World
New Delhi, 1
December 2023
India’s Foreign Policy
CHAMPIONING PEACE
By Dr. D.K. Giri
(Secretary General, Assn for
Democratic Socialism)
The Minister for External Affairs asserted that New Delhi
should strive to shape international relations with Indian characteristics.
Speaking at an International Relations Conference on “India’s Strategic
Culture: Addressing Global and Regional Challenges”, S Jaishankar suggested
that foreign policy makers should devote more time to look into India’s deep
reservoir of culture and knowledge, history and traditions.
The EAM laid out his proposition by pointing out the
predominance of certain narratives in world politics, mainly the British, which
are followed largely even by the Americans. Citing his interactions with his
American peers on Afghanistan, he found that their understanding of the
country, after being there for 20 years, was influenced by the British
narrative. That simply means that “They have looked at geography through one
cultural lens. Unless we are able to put our lens in place, they will never
look at it in a way in which it will serve our interests”.
The EAM laments the practice that intellectual concepts,
traditions and constructs are largely British or Europeans. The thinkers often
quoted are Socrates, Plato and Aristotle, and in diplomacy, people invoke Lord
Palmerstone on permanent interest but not remember or admit that Kautilya, the
Indian ace diplomat, said it several centuries before.
Taking EAM’s postulate further, let us accept the hard fact
that foreign policies are currently driven by economic and security interests,
which are backed by military and economic power. This truism is endorsed by
EAM’s own reference to China. He said Westerners had no problem in accepting
“500-year-old unbroken Chinese history”, but many of them would not acknowledge
India’s old and rich civilisation. Jaishankar quotes the extreme example of
Churchill who said, “India is merely a geographical expression. It is no more a
single country than the equator.” Such privileging of China is purely due to
its high growth in GDP.
Therefore, if the measure of a country’s power and standing
in the international community is defined by its GDP, how does India privilege its
own culture and traditions in its foreign policy? There may be several ways of
doing it, in order to create a new narrative. The three Cs which I talked about
before in this column – Covid, Climate Change and Conflicts (often bloody and
violent) – defy the logic of GDP being the predominant factor in world
politics.
And, at the same time, tackling these three Cs will require
a different set of values that should cause a paradigm shift. The shift should
evolve into new economic strategies that draw on Gandhi and Buddha who espoused
the values of peace, non-violence, compassion, renunciation, all enshrined in
humanism or a people-centric approach. A German economist EF Schumacher
reflected these values in his economic outlook in a legendary book, “Small
is Beautiful: Economics As If People Mattered”.
In addition, another cardinal value that is uniquely Indian
is the ‘culture of synthesis’. Westerners, supposed to be the harbingers of
modernism and rationality, divide knowledge or perspectives into two
antithetical binaries -- wrong and right, moral and immoral, black and white.
But Indians view things in a continuum, not always in conflict. They see the
grey between black and white. In the continuum, the opposing perspectives get
synthesised, to create or transcend to a higher reality, a common perspective.
Quite a few countries in the world, perhaps sensing this
Indian uniqueness manifesting in its culture of synthesis, expect India to be a
peace broker in the current violent world going pathetically through two
full-scale wars. That is probably why the Arab nations expect India to play an
important role in sustaining peace and stability in the world. Saudi Ambassador
in New Delhi Al-Husseini said, “India has a history of supporting peace and
stability in the global system. We expect India to play a major role in
peace-building”.
Even in the Ukrainian war, India was expected to broker a
peace deal. Mexico had proposed in September 2022 to the United Nations to set
up a committee that would include India’s Prime Minister Modi, Pope Francis and
the UN Secretary-General Antonio Gueterres to mediate permanent peace between
Russia and Ukraine. The proposal was put forward by Marcelo Luis Ebrard
Casaubón, the Mexican Foreign Minister, while participating in a UN Security
Council debate on Ukraine in New York.
Where should India start in crafting a new paradigm for
peace and security? In fact, New Delhi has already made the beginning in G-20
Summit this year with a brilliantly-formulated theme, “One Earth, One Family,
One Future”, drawing on our Vedas that prescribed that world is a family (Vasudheva
Kutumbakam). While the theme is powerfully emotive, in order to actualise
it, one will have to build a new architecture for one future or a common
future; and demonstrate the benefits that would accrue from it to the humanity
across the world.
At the same time, it would be necessary to show the
opportunity costs of not working for a common future. Here, India can conflate
its values with Western wisdom. Remember that a problem anywhere, in a
globalised and deeply-connected world, could potentially be dangerous elsewhere
of everywhere (like Covid) across the world. Second, As Shakespeare warned in
Macbeth, “It will have blood, they say, blood will have blood’. He meant
violence begets violence. Third, Newton’s Third Law stated, “For every action
there is an equal or opposite reaction”.
The degree of consequences of action-reaction may vary. For
instance, in Israel-Palestine conflict, the former inflicts a lot more harm and
losses on Palestine because of its superior military power, but the bloodshed
on Israel side also occurs, albeit to a lesser degree. Israel Prime Minister
Netanyahu had said, “The loss of one soldier means a loss of world for Israel”.
So deaths cannot be counted in numbers or in proportionate terms even in wars. The English poet John Donne had evocatively
said, “Any man’s death diminishes me because I am involved in the mankind.”
Fourth, Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr famously said, “No
one is free until we all are free”. This idea also echoes the Jewish tradition
with Biblical injunction to ‘love your neighbour as yourself’. All these values
are encompassed in one world and one family, the hallmark of universalism.
In terms of policies, India needs to advocate building of peace
structures in place of accumulating war machinery. New Delhi’s endeavour should
be to remodel the global security system from the present confrontation model
based on deterrence doctrine into a cooperation framework drawing on
solidarity, common stakes and common future.
Unarguably, war is bloody, destructive, cruel and
dehumanising. The world has to say ‘No’ to violence, terrorism and certainly
war. The weapon industry has to be dismantled; ironically many of them are
located in the West. War is a failure of diplomacy and absence of dialogue. War
also is a reflection of incompetence of geo-politics.
India could make up the void by reviving dialogues based on
the above principles. The size of GDP alone will not help. It is the
intellectual resources, civilizational values, a Universalist and a humanist
approach that will do it. To be sure, in principle, India has them all. What is
needed is the political will driven by determination and conviction. ---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature
Alliance)
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POLL PROSPECTS AND THE INDIAN VOTER, By Inder Jit, 30 November 2023 |
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REWIND
New Delhi, 30 November 2023
POLL PROSPECTS AND THE INDIAN VOTER
By
Inder Jit
(Released
on 24 October 1989)
India’s electorate seems to have come of age, judging by
the general atmosphere. The surprise announcement of the Lok Sabha poll did
cause considerable excitement. So did the added decision to hold simultaneous
Assembly polls in U.P., Karnataka and some other States. Nevertheless, life has
continued to flow at its normal pace. There is no sign yet of any wave, big or
small. Rival party conclaves have met to finalize their respective manifestoes
and decide on candidates, but without any noticeable fervour outside. No one
eagerly waited for the party manifestoes. The interest in the tickets remained
limited to the aspirants, their families and friends. This is how it should be
in any mature system. Parliamentary democracy provides for day to day struggle
for power and continuous education. Every sitting of Parliament helps people to
know and judge the rulers as well as the Opposition. Ultimately, voters go
mainly by broad impression.
Both the Congress-I and the Opposition speak confidently of
success. Appropriately, Mr Rajiv Gandhi, like Indira Gandhi, prefers not to
speak in terms of numbers. However, those around him talk stridently of bagging
at least 300 to 325 seats out of the total of 528 seats, excluding 14 of Assam.
The Centre’s Intelligence Bureau is said to have made two assessments in recent
weeks in keeping with a practice started during Indira Gandhi’s time. The first
is said to have given the Congress-I 350 seats and the second 325. But
experienced non-Congress-I politicians reject the assessment out of hand
asserting: “Remember, the IB cocksurely told Indira Gandhi in 1977 that she
would win hands down!” Mr V.P. Singh, too, prefers not to join the guessing
game of numbers. However, Mr Devi Lal assuredly predicted a landslide in favour
of the Opposition. He told me: “We will repeat Haryana all over India. We will
win 450 seats!”
At least, one knowledgeable Congressman agrees with the
Chaudhuri. We should know. He had the privilege of working as a trusted aide of
Indira Gandhi for many years. Three weeks ago, he gave the Congress-I 150
seats. Last week, however, he told me in Parliament’s Central Hall: “Now it
will be no more than 111 seats. Take Bihar. I give the Congress-I 5 seats out
of 54 below the Ganga and 5 seats above. I am unable to pick even 20 sure seats
for the Congress-I in U.P. out of a total of 85.” Importantly, two senior Bihar
Congressmen present did not disagree. Could I identify him? “Not yet,” he said.
“Let us first see who are the candidates.” Another shrewd Congress-I leader
seemed to agree on the crucial importance of the candidates. He told me: “The
Congress-I and the Opposition presently enjoy 35 per cent support each. Thirty
per cent is the floating vote. They will make up their minds only on the basis of
the candidates - and the prevailing hawa.”
A few factors, however, seem to be clear. Broadly, the
Opposition continues to be Mr Rajiv Gandhi’s best friend, just as Mr Rajiv
Gandhi has become the Opposition’s best bet. The National Front today is more united
than a month ago. However, it does not still inspire full confidence of the
people as a credible alternative to the Congress-I. Even the vast number who
feel that Mr V.P. Singh can give India a clean and efficient Government are not
sure if he would be allowed to become Prime Minister by rival aspirants even if
the National Front was to get a majority. Mr Gandhi, for his part, has greatly
undermined his own credibility not only by the Bofors scandal but also by what
are widely described as his “many failures”, especially the recent spurt in
prices. This is important in the context of one basic fact of electoral life.
Negative votes are crucial. Governments are voted out. The Opposition is seldom
voted in.
Mr Gandhi may, however, be said to have done well by
himself by the surprise poll timing, which appeared momentarily to have caught
the Opposition on the wrong foot. In one stroke, he has re-established his
democratic credentials in the face of persistent talk that he would manipulate
to somehow get the poll put off for a year through the imposition of Emergency,
even if this involved a “limited scrap” with Pakistan in Punjab or Kashmir. He
has also scotched rumours that he would first topple the Devi Lal Government in
Haryana. Simultaneously, Mr Gandhi has impressed many with his little-known
capacity to play politics like his mother and fully exploit both the Panchayati
Raj and Nagarpalika bills as also their defeat at the hands of the Opposition.
Not only that. Many had expected him to delay the poll because of more
revelations in the Bofors scandal. He has now projected an image of courage by
choosing to face the people earlier than he need have.
Much will eventually depend upon two things. First, the
ability of the Opposition to come together and ensure a one-to-one contest
through formal or informal arrangements. Second, the ability of the Congress-I
to ensure effective unity in its ranks. To take the second first. Infighting has
time and again played havoc with the Congress-I in poll battles. It could cause
even greater disaster this year when a question-mark has gone up over Mr Gandhi’s
capacity as a vote-getter. The Prime Minister has, no doubt, tried to keep the
Congress-I united by giving representation to all groups in the State Election
Committees. But this does not mean that these Committees will put their party
before self, choose the best candidate for the poll and work for victory.
Candidly confided one leader: “Why should I do my best. Success will only
strengthen the Chief Minister and the PCC Chief --- and destroy my own
prospects.”
Ten days ago, the chances of the Opposition ensuring
one-to-one contests seemed bleak. But the sudden announcement of the poll has
proved a blessing in disguise, as it did for the Opposition in 1977. It has
forced the Opposition to bury the hatchet speedily and come together to give
the Congress-I straight fight. The CPM has indicated the Left Front’s decision
to join hands with the National Front, notwithstanding the latter’s
arrangements, formal or otherwise, with the BJP. Two weeks ago, the CPM and the
Congress-I seemed to be moving closer following Mr Jyoti Basu’s dinner meeting
with Mr Gandhi and their friendly flight together to Haldia and back. But Mr
Basu has since reiterated that the Congress-I is still the CPM’s Enemy No. 1.
He has, no doubt, stated that the CPM will not share the platform with the BJP.
He has, however, clarified that it has no objection if the Janata Dal has seat
adjustments with the BJP.
Speculation continues about the Muslim vote, especially in
U.P. and Bihar where it has considerable clout in almost half their total seats
-- 85 plus 54. Initially, the Muslims were said to be wholly anti-Congress-I in
view of ‘anti-Muslim’ riots. But they are said to have started having second
thoughts when the Janata Dal joined hands with the BJP, despite Communist
protests. They were thereafter seen to be largely back in the Congress fold
when the BJP reaffirmed its commitment to Hindu Rashtra --- and Mr L.K. Advani
was seen performing Ram Shila Poojan. The strong secular stance taken by Mr
V.P. Singh, Mr Devi Lal and others against politicising the Ram Janmabhoomi
issue is said to have largely restored the original position -- anti-Congress-I
and pro-Janata. Truth perhaps lies somewhere between the rival claims which
slur over one fact. The Muslims do not necessarily operate as vote banks.
In the final analysis, the vast
majority of Indian voters can be counted upon to act maturely. They may not be
highly educated and well-versed in modern idiom. But they have their two feet
firmly on the ground and can differentiate between right and wrong, good and
evil. They cannot be misled by gimmickry, frame-ups and brazen official
propaganda on AIR and Doordarshan. In fact, all that has been sought to be put across has
been more than neutralised by the weekly episode of the Mahabharat and lately
of the Vishwamitra serial. These have refreshed and re-educated the masses in
India’s great tradition and values of satya
and asatya and the basic obligations
of a good ruler. Every episode in recent weeks has come to be related willy
nilly to present-day India and the crisis of values. The Nehru Centenary
celebrations, too, have helped to crystallise the issues. Our people will
surely give their verdict loud and clear. --- INFA
(Copyright, India News and Feature
Alliance)
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