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WANTED: OPPOSITION THAT WORKS, By Inder Jit, 5 December 2023 Print E-mail

REWIND

New Delhi, 5 December 2023

WANTED: OPPOSITION THAT WORKS

By Inder Jit

(Released on 23 June 1981) 

The Opposition has none but itself to blame for coming to grief once again. It seems to have learnt nothing and unlearnt nothing from its bitter experience. The final results of the recent by-elections show that the Opposition parties could have done a lot better if only these had come to some understanding between themselves. In UP alone, the Opposition together polled more votes than the Congress (I) in three Lok Sabha seats: Allahabad, Bareilly and Mirzapur. But it had lost the battle even before the first shot was fired. Mrs. Gandhi need not have taken the trouble she took to campaign for her party candidates. But as India’s shrewdest politician she understood the importance of the by-elections and went all out to win them. Psychologically, triumph at the polls was vital for her. Prices have spurted all round since she returned to power. Law and order situation has deteriorated. Unemployment has continued to mount. It was, therefore, imperative for her to prove that the people still have faith in her. And, there is no viable alternative to the Congress (I) yet. 

The Opposition’s latest poll debacle has brought together the leaders of the Lok Dal, Congress (U), Bharatiya Janata Party and Janata Party --- at least in issuing a joint statement. Mr. Charan Singh, Mr. Devaraj Urs, Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee and Mr. Madhu Dandwate have asserted that “the age of free democratic elections is over” and it was time for all those committed to the democratic process to sit up and take serious note. “Unlimited and unimaginable amounts of money,” according to them, had been distributed in the by-elections which were also marked by “blatant misuse of government machinery and police, wholesale rigging, booth capturing and unabashed violence.” Further, for the first time in free India, the Prime Minister had canvassed in the by-elections, broken a convention and “intimidated” the electorate. All in all, the Congress (I) had “gone to any extent” to ensure its victory and thereby sown the “seeds of anarchy” and made a “mockery of parliamentary democracy.” 

The charges are grave and unprecedented. Significantly, the CPI General Secretary, Mr. Rajeswara Rao, too, has accused the Congress (I) of “blatant misuse of official machinery, violation of all democratic norms and values, use of money power and goondaism.” Many of these charges will require to be checked for veracity. One thing alone is established. Mrs. Gandhi violated what she herself described as a convention by campaigning in the by-elections. Some apologists for the ruling party have argued that it was not realistic to expect the Congress (I) to go to the polls without its star vote-catcher canvassing for votes. Yet, the fact remains that the Prime Minister’s campaign at a time when the Congress (I) is enjoying a big majority at the Centre and in UP and elsewhere amounted to telling the voters: Vote for the Congress (I) or else. The convention ensures what the Constitution provides: a poll which is not only free and fair but also without fear! Nehru upheld it boldly and refrained from campaigning, for instance, in the Lok Sabha by-elections from Amroha, Kannauj and Rajkot in 1963 even though he wanted to keep Acharya Kripalani, Dr. Lohia and Mr. Masani out. 

Nevertheless, a question that needs to be put to Mr. Charan Singh, Mr. Urs, Mr. Vajpayee, Mr. Dandwate and Mr. Rajeswara Rao and their parties is: why could they not see what was possibly coming and take appropriate, advance measures to prevent blatant misuse of machinery and much else that is alleged? Why could they not act in time --- and why must they only react? The post-event statements of the five leaders appear to have been issued mainly on the basis of many grave allegations made by Mr. H.N. Bahuguna in regard to the by-election in Pauri-Garhwal. Yet one fact stands out. Mr. Bahuguna had warned the country days before the poll of what might happen in his constituency. Sadly enough, no one took any serious notice of these warnings --- notice which could surely have been taken by the Opposition parties singly or unitedly irrespective of their personal attitude towards the controversial Mr. Bahuguna. 

What could the Opposition have done? The answer is not far to seek, as shown by a pre-poll consensus among some thinking people anxious to strengthen our young democracy. The Opposition, it was agreed, could have responded meaningfully to Mr. Bahuguna’s virtual S.O.S. by dispatching a top-level team of observers representing various parties to see things for themselves in Pauri-Garhwal prior to the polling and on the poll day itself. In addition, the parties could have associated with such a team non-party and non-power seeking organizations such as Citizens for Democracy, Voters’ Council, Gandhi Peace Foundation and Lok Sevak Sangh. The other words, the principal Opposition parties now wailing over the alleged happenings in Pauri-Garhwal could have ensured that the vote was free and fair irrespective of their attitude towards Mr. Bahuguna. It was clearly for these proclaimed democrats to show what they stood for: an equal chance at the polls to even one’s worst opponent. 

The Opposition’s characteristic failure to respond in time to the developing situation in Pauri-Garhwal goes to the heart of the matter. (Mr. Bahuguna’s statements and the alleged threat to his life are only one part of the story. Pauri-Garhwal witnessed before the poll an incredible star-spangled show by the Congress (I): Six State Chief Ministers and two score and more of other Ministers were campaigning at one time in addition to Mrs. Gandhi). The Opposition must realize that its approach to the public, by and large, leaves a great deal to be desired. First things are not being tackled first. The Opposition today lacks the people’s confidence as never before. In 1977, the common man asserted his power and gave the Opposition a chance to prove its mettle. But this opportunity was recklessly thrown away. Worse, the lesson of 1980 has not been learnt. Its leaders have done little to rebuild their credibility and show they are now putting the country before self. 

Annual party sessions, occasional public meetings and press conferences have their importance. Unfortunately, however, most Opposition leaders, like those of the Government, often read more into the crowds at their meetings than is justified. The common man turns up at these meetings mainly to give himself a break from his normal dreary existence. The public meeting is for him essentially in the nature of a mela or a tamasha, depending upon the weather and his mood --- and no index of his commitment. (A veteran recalls Nehru once asking Bakshi Ghulam Mohd about his following in Kashmir. Pat came the reply: “25 lakhs.” Nehru “What about Sheikh Sahib?” The Bakshi replied “25 lakhs.” Puzzled, Nehru remarked: “I don’t understand.” The Bakshi replied: “Our people flock to listen to whosoever is on the platform!”) A question which thus arises is: Is the Opposition doing enough to build its credibility and offer itself as a viable alternative to the Congress (I)? 

The answer on both scores is regrettably a big “no”. True, the Opposition leaders swear by various democratic norms and ideals. However, they seldom follow up their proclaimed commitments through convincing deeds, as shown, for instance, by the case of the CPM Ministries in West Bengal and Kerala. As everyone knows, the Jyoti and the Nayanar Ministries are under attack. New Delhi could, if it so willed, carry out the threat held out by some Central ministers on visits to Calcutta and Trivandrum and topple the two Governments. But the Opposition leaders, barring an exception or two, have done little to stand up for the basic principles that must guide Centre-State relations ---- and make it clear that they would oppose tooth and nail any unconstitutional attempt to cut short a lawfully elected Government. The Opposition parties may have their differences with the CPM. But these could be agitated separately. The important thing for the Opposition is to carry conviction among the masses that it means what it says and, if necessary, is even willing to shed blood for the other man’s right to disagree. 

The Opposition parties could easily take a leaf out of the British book once again and prove that it means business as shown by its newly formed Socialist Democratic Party. Although born yesterday, the SDP has decided to put up one of its leading lights from Warrington in a bye-election to the Commons on July 16. The constituency is known to be a Labour stronghold and, according to Mrs. Shirley Williams, it would be “a miracle if the SDP wins.” Nevertheless the party has put up the well-known Mr. Roy Jenkins for the poll to prove, according to the London Times, “the seriousness of its challenge to the Labour and the Conservative parties.” Adds the Times: And, Mr. Jenkins took no persuading that the honour of appearing as the first standard-bearer properly fell to him.” Mr. Jenkins, for his part, underlined the importance of the fight when he said: “our sights as a party are very high. We want to show a way out from the old debilitating politics of outdated dogmatism, remote from the thoughts of ordinary people and encouragement of false class confrontation which have bedeviled this country”.

In sharp contrast, the Opposition in India is not only failing itself but also the country. Like the SDP in the UK, it should have moved heaven and earth to put up prestige fights at least in some seats to carry conviction among the people about their serious intent to challenge the Congress (I). The BJP, which seems to be viewed as an emerging alternative, could have surely come forward with some top-level candidates just to register a point, even if the other parties were unwilling to oblige. The Janata, too, has allowed its case to go by default. But all this need not cause despair. As the saying goes, there is always another day. The Metropolitan Council elections in Delhi, which are already overdue, offer another opportunity to the Opposition. Again, the Opposition parties could come together in Parliament and help restore their credibility through coordinated functioning on major issues. In the final analysis, there is a crying need today for an Opposition which not only stands for parliamentary democracy but also an Opposition that works.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

 

Ladakh To Manipur – Billions Loss: MORE SILKYARAS IN THE MAKING By Shivaji Sarkar, 4 December 202 Print E-mail

Economic Highlights

New Delhi, 4 December 2023

Ladakh To Manipur – Billions Loss

MORE SILKYARAS IN THE MAKING

By Shivaji Sarkar 

Ignoring the Himalayan warnings has become a habit.Kedarnath tragedy lessons were never learnt. Had it heard the Union Environment Ministry (UEM)advisories on road construction-generated woes in the Rajya Sabha in 2018, perhaps many disasters, across the country could have been avoided.The prevailing constructions from Ladakh to Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur pose significant threat to the mountain ecosystem. 

Both the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank wonder how Darjeeling, Shimla or Mussoorie built by the British have simple, scenic disaster-resilient roads. 

Losses could only partially be measured in monetary terms. Stretches of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim, North Bengal or Manipur have been wiped off during the last few years. Could any monetisation quantify the grievous losses? According to UN ESCAP report, India suffered $3.2 billion losses largely due to heavy rains and floods in 2021. Post 2013 Kedarnath tragedy losses were Rs 13000 crore in Uttarakhand alone. This year’s severe floods in Uttarakhand caused irreparable losses. Himachal floods washed off large stretches of the newly constructed roads. The felled tree logs that were dumped below the newly constructed roads caused wide devastations as these floated with the swirling waters. 

In 2023-24, the National Highway Authority of India (NHAI)has been allocated Rs 162,207 crore--60 percent of the total road ministry budget and is 25 percent higher than the previous year. Even maintenance expenses were increased by 44 percent from Rs 900 crore to Rs1300 crore, apparently to offset continuous damages. The state PWDs that do 50 percent of the repairs got Rs 280 crore against Rs 132 crore a year back.All Himalayan states have approached the centre for large fundings for reconstructions. 

The 17 breathless days that the nation awaited rescue of 41 workers trapped from the caved in Silkyara tunnel in Uttarkashi, have forced the government to study the impact of road constructions. The 4.5 km tunnel is said to have no emergency safety exits. 

If the 2018 warning itself had been heard, nobody would have ventured on ill-advised Char Dham road digging. The UEM warning was explicit. It said that most landslides in “Manipur were ‘anthropogenically’ induced and were caused due to several factors, including the ‘modification’ of mountain and hill slopes for construction and road widening. The state witnessed six major landslides in 2018, three in 2017, one 2015 and four in 2010”. There were more during subsequent years, the worst being the death of 61 persons at a massive landslide at the Tulpul railway station construction for connecting to Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore as part of the Trans Asian Railway. A GSI report attributed it to activities in a “highly susceptible zone” at an extensive slope cut for construction. 

Ladakh to Manipur today is a severe danger zone. Reckless tree felling, clearing of vegetation and changing delicate Himalayan structure for large profits have become the norm.  Silkiyara is not the first tunnel in Uttarakhand tocollapse. Tapovan tunnel flooding killing at least 67 is forgotten. The Vishnuprayagproject that causedAlaknandato disappear in a 5-km stretch is history and nobody listens to the drought that Karnaprayag rail tunnel has caused in PanaiPokhri in the Chamoli district as the lone stream has dried up.

The Rs 12500 crore, 889 km Char Dham project connecting the fragile Himalayas of Kedarnath, Badrinath, Yamunotri and Gangotri has been controversial since launch in December 2016. As feared heavy drilling, bulldozing and construction was causing heavy subsidence, landslides and environmental damage in different parts.Joshimathis in the news for this. 

The Himachal government document says roads to cost Rs 40000 crore and massive disturbances to the state ecology.It means the system has not learnt from mistakes. The 2023 summer floods caused extensive devastation and loss of lives due to post-road construction change of environment. If more roads are constructed, it means that the state could face worse consequences. 

The damages at Tulpul in Manipur were not caused by the disturbances in vulnerable slope alone. The debris dumped, as in Himachal, blocked the natural water flow of the rivers in areas with several geological fault lines. It tore apart s geologically weak zones. 

String of dams in Uttarakhand mostly not far from road projects are emerging as potential threats. The lakes formed in delicate areas are potential threats, including the Tehri dam. It has added to reservoir-induced seismicity and increased incidences of landslides observed in the reservoir rim. 

Building of dams in the Himalayas is not considered safe. The October cloudburst in Sikkim, coupled with the melting of the Lhonak glacier at height of 17,100 feet, caused glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF). The sudden gushing waterswashed away Teesta Stage 3 dam, known as Urja project. It led to massive destructions downstream damaging thousands of buildings, wiped off roads and collapsed 111 major bridges. It claimed many lives, including those of army personnel. 

Tehri dam authorities claim that it could withstand earthquake of 8.5 magnitude on Richter scale. The Supreme Court experts’ committee headed by Dr Ravi Chopra, Director of People’s Science Institute, stated that several floods were aggravated by hydroelectricity projects. The poor waste management aggravatesdisasters. Professor James Brune, a prominent seismologist, said: “We have to conclude that the proposed Tehri Dam's location is one of the most hazardous in the world from the point of earthquakes”. He sounds prophetic. Does it mean downhill, regions up to Rishikeshvulnerable, if it meets the Lhonak fate? 

May be those are extreme views. But the road and rail projects from Ladakh to Manipur everywhere are having disastrous effect. To cite one, Adi Kailash in Pithoragarh was recently inaugurated as a tourist point for viewing the Kailash peak. Areas around were blasted to build roads and other facilities. Only days later, on September 23, a hill came crashing down killing seven persons and changing the topography of the region. 

While improvements are welcome but an end to the toll-levied massive greed is must to preserve the pristine regions for the existence of the Himalayas. If the Himalayas are lost to silly constructions, entire ecology of the subcontinent could alter for the worse. In 1980, the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi had stopped the Tehri dam construction, the government now should consider thawing all road, dam, hydro and other construction activities. For small profits, nobody should be allowed to play havoc  with the Himalayas.---INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

‘Not Necessarily, By Accident’? By Rajiv Gupta, 2 December 2023 Print E-mail

Spotlight

New Delhi, 2 December 2023

‘Not Necessarily By Accident’?

By Rajiv Gupta 

The nation celebrated the rescue of 41 workers from the Silkyara Bend–Barkot tunnel in the Uttarkashi district of Uttarakhand. Once the euphoria of successful effort settles, it will be time to ask whether the tunnel collapse was preventable. The utility and impact of the answers will depend on the questions we ask. Our conduct of post-accident inquiries into its causes has been less than satisfactory. A discussion of how we have dealt with railway accidents will illustrate this. 

On October 29, 2023, there was a terrible train accident involving a collision between the Vishakhapatnam-Palsa passenger train, and the Vishakhapatnam-Rayagada passenger train between Alamanda and Kantakapele in Andhra Pradesh which resulted in the death of 14 and several more injured. 

On June 02, 2023, over 290 passengers lost their lives while around 1000 were injured in the train crash, involving the Bengaluru-Howrah Superfast Express, the Shalimar-Chennai Central Coromandel Express and a goods train. 

Such accidents are published on the front pages in newspapers and are on the national television news for a few days and then lapse into a collective national apathy until the next catastrophe. The process has become a ritual where politicians at local and national levels announce payments to the families of the deceased and to the injured. This is followed by a decision to initiate an enquiry into the causes of the accident. And then we happily move on with our lives. 

An inquiry conducted by the Commissioner of Railway safety (CRS) regarding the second accident highlighted that the rear-collision of the train caused due to the lapses in the signalling-circuit-alteration. It pointed that these lapses resulted in wrong signalling. Consequently, seven officials were suspended and proceedings were initiated against them. This probably would be the last thing about the accident in the media. 

The payment to the families is justified as compensation for the lapses on the part of the railways. However, the findings of the inquiry by the CRS as well as the ensuing action against seven officials merits discussion. 

There has been significant amount of research analysing human errors that result in accidents in a variety of situations from healthcare, to aviation, and nuclear power plants. Some of the most respected work has been done by James Reason and Charles Perrow. They have suggested that errors are of two types: active errors and latent errors. Active errors occur at the level of the frontline operators, and their effects are felt almost immediately. An example of active error could be the failure of the signaling system. Latent errors tend to be removed from the direct control of the operator and include things such as poor design, incorrect installation, faulty maintenance, bad management decisions, and poorly structured organisations. 

Active errors are related to the act of omission or commission that may have been occurred when and where the accident happened. They do not tend to affect any other area of the system at any other point in time. Latent errors are prevalent throughout the system. They can, and do, lead to errors in different parts of the system at different points in time and hence are more consequential than active errors. In general, any inquiry that is constituted after an accident tends to focus on active errors and not on latent, or systemic errors. 

There could be a variety of reasons for this. Latent errors are not easily discernible. They typically involve the acts of omission and or commission by higher level officials, and there could be a tendency to avoid confrontation with powerful officials. It is much easier to pick an operator’s mistake than to question the policy makers of the organisation. The end result is that the underlying problems remain embedded in the system and will result in future accidents and the same analysis would be repeated. 

An audit report by the Comptroller and Auditor General of India on Derailment of Trains in India for the years 2017-2021 makes for some very interesting, as well as alarming, reading.  In fact, after reading the report, it would appear fortuitous that the number of accidents is not higher than what are observed in practice. Some key points from the report will be discussed in this article.

The report looked at several aspects of the operation and maintenance of the rail system. One aspect deals with the inspection of tracks with the help of Track Recording Cars (TRCs). The Indian Railway Permanent Way Manual (IRPWM) provides that the Broad Gauge routes should be monitored by TRCs as per prescribed frequencies dependent on the type of track. The audit found that the shortfall in conducting the inspections varied from 30 to 100% across different zonal divisions. The best performing zonal division could only perform 70% of the prescribed inspections. In 14 out of 18 divisions the inspections performed were half, or less than half the prescribed requirements, and in four divisions no inspections were carried out at all. 

The report also mentions that a derailment of Seemanchal Express occurred in February 2019. The TRC inspection over the section was overdue by four months, which could have given vital inputs for defects in the track which could have averted the accident. This is a clear example of a latent error leading to an accident. An initial investigation revealed that the accident was due to a fracture in the track, an active error. But there has been no mention in the media about the lack of inspection, which could have prevented the tragedy. The accident was waiting to happen. 

Several examples of latent errors are presented in the audit report. Some of these include shortfall in manpower, shortfalls in training for maintenance personnel, lack of adequate safety equipment such as helmets, torches, gloves for maintenance staff, non-adherence to recommended methods of welding for tracks, non-completion of recommended track renewals, etc. The Rashtriya Railway Suraksha Kosh (RRSK) was announced by the Ministry of Finance in 2017-18 for safety related works of renewal, replacement and augmentation of railway assets. 

An analysis by the CAG revealed a reducing trend of fund utilisation for track renewals, repairs, etc, while there was a growing misuse of funds for non-priority areas such as purchase of crockery, passenger amenities (lifts, escalators, extensions of platforms), salaries and bonuses, etc. The report found that out of 1129 derailments during 2017-18 to 2020-21, 289 derailments (around 26%) were linked to track renewals. This amply suggests the lack of safety focus on the part of the Railway management. 

Over the four-year period covered by the report (2017-2021), there were 217 consequential and 1800 other accidents. While derailments formed the largest percentage of both categories of accidents (65-70%), the second biggest cause of consequential accidents was fire. Despite about 9% of consequential accidents being due to fire, it was found that no fire extinguishers were provided in 62% of the coaches. 

The government is moving ahead with ambitious plans for high-speed rail connecting the cities. While we should be celebrating these plans, nevertheless there is sufficient cause for concern regarding our ability to maintain the existing railway assets, let alone the newer, more sophisticated systems. We should not fall into the trap of thinking that we can automate ourselves out of this mess. What is needed is better management at the ground level and a real commitment to passenger safety from the government and the top management of the railways. Until that happens, perhaps it might be better to slow down. And it may be instructive to repeat the audit after a few years to see to what extent the Railways have heeded the suggestions.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

India’s Foreign Policy: CHAMPIONING PEACE, By Dr. D.K. Giri, 1 December 2023 Print E-mail

Round The World

New Delhi, 1 December  2023

India’s Foreign Policy

CHAMPIONING PEACE

By Dr. D.K. Giri

(Secretary General, Assn for Democratic Socialism) 

The Minister for External Affairs asserted that New Delhi should strive to shape international relations with Indian characteristics. Speaking at an International Relations Conference on “India’s Strategic Culture: Addressing Global and Regional Challenges”, S Jaishankar suggested that foreign policy makers should devote more time to look into India’s deep reservoir of culture and knowledge, history and traditions. 

The EAM laid out his proposition by pointing out the predominance of certain narratives in world politics, mainly the British, which are followed largely even by the Americans. Citing his interactions with his American peers on Afghanistan, he found that their understanding of the country, after being there for 20 years, was influenced by the British narrative. That simply means that “They have looked at geography through one cultural lens. Unless we are able to put our lens in place, they will never look at it in a way in which it will serve our interests”. 

The EAM laments the practice that intellectual concepts, traditions and constructs are largely British or Europeans. The thinkers often quoted are Socrates, Plato and Aristotle, and in diplomacy, people invoke Lord Palmerstone on permanent interest but not remember or admit that Kautilya, the Indian ace diplomat, said it several centuries before. 

Taking EAM’s postulate further, let us accept the hard fact that foreign policies are currently driven by economic and security interests, which are backed by military and economic power. This truism is endorsed by EAM’s own reference to China. He said Westerners had no problem in accepting “500-year-old unbroken Chinese history”, but many of them would not acknowledge India’s old and rich civilisation. Jaishankar quotes the extreme example of Churchill who said, “India is merely a geographical expression. It is no more a single country than the equator.” Such privileging of China is purely due to its high growth in GDP. 

Therefore, if the measure of a country’s power and standing in the international community is defined by its GDP, how does India privilege its own culture and traditions in its foreign policy? There may be several ways of doing it, in order to create a new narrative. The three Cs which I talked about before in this column – Covid, Climate Change and Conflicts (often bloody and violent) – defy the logic of GDP being the predominant factor in world politics. 

And, at the same time, tackling these three Cs will require a different set of values that should cause a paradigm shift. The shift should evolve into new economic strategies that draw on Gandhi and Buddha who espoused the values of peace, non-violence, compassion, renunciation, all enshrined in humanism or a people-centric approach. A German economist EF Schumacher reflected these values in his economic outlook in a legendary book, “Small is Beautiful: Economics As If People Mattered”. 

In addition, another cardinal value that is uniquely Indian is the ‘culture of synthesis’. Westerners, supposed to be the harbingers of modernism and rationality, divide knowledge or perspectives into two antithetical binaries -- wrong and right, moral and immoral, black and white. But Indians view things in a continuum, not always in conflict. They see the grey between black and white. In the continuum, the opposing perspectives get synthesised, to create or transcend to a higher reality, a common perspective. 

Quite a few countries in the world, perhaps sensing this Indian uniqueness manifesting in its culture of synthesis, expect India to be a peace broker in the current violent world going pathetically through two full-scale wars. That is probably why the Arab nations expect India to play an important role in sustaining peace and stability in the world. Saudi Ambassador in New Delhi Al-Husseini said, “India has a history of supporting peace and stability in the global system. We expect India to play a major role in peace-building”. 

Even in the Ukrainian war, India was expected to broker a peace deal. Mexico had proposed in September 2022 to the United Nations to set up a committee that would include India’s Prime Minister Modi, Pope Francis and the UN Secretary-General Antonio Gueterres to mediate permanent peace between Russia and Ukraine. The proposal was put forward by Marcelo Luis Ebrard Casaubón, the Mexican Foreign Minister, while participating in a UN Security Council debate on Ukraine in New York. 

Where should India start in crafting a new paradigm for peace and security? In fact, New Delhi has already made the beginning in G-20 Summit this year with a brilliantly-formulated theme, “One Earth, One Family, One Future”, drawing on our Vedas that prescribed that world is a family (Vasudheva Kutumbakam). While the theme is powerfully emotive, in order to actualise it, one will have to build a new architecture for one future or a common future; and demonstrate the benefits that would accrue from it to the humanity across the world. 

At the same time, it would be necessary to show the opportunity costs of not working for a common future. Here, India can conflate its values with Western wisdom. Remember that a problem anywhere, in a globalised and deeply-connected world, could potentially be dangerous elsewhere of everywhere (like Covid) across the world. Second, As Shakespeare warned in Macbeth, “It will have blood, they say, blood will have blood’. He meant violence begets violence. Third, Newton’s Third Law stated, “For every action there is an equal or opposite reaction”. 

The degree of consequences of action-reaction may vary. For instance, in Israel-Palestine conflict, the former inflicts a lot more harm and losses on Palestine because of its superior military power, but the bloodshed on Israel side also occurs, albeit to a lesser degree. Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu had said, “The loss of one soldier means a loss of world for Israel”. So deaths cannot be counted in numbers or in proportionate terms even in wars.  The English poet John Donne had evocatively said, “Any man’s death diminishes me because I am involved in the mankind.” 

Fourth, Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr famously said, “No one is free until we all are free”. This idea also echoes the Jewish tradition with Biblical injunction to ‘love your neighbour as yourself’. All these values are encompassed in one world and one family, the hallmark of universalism. 

In terms of policies, India needs to advocate building of peace structures in place of accumulating war machinery. New Delhi’s endeavour should be to remodel the global security system from the present confrontation model based on deterrence doctrine into a cooperation framework drawing on solidarity, common stakes and common future. 

Unarguably, war is bloody, destructive, cruel and dehumanising. The world has to say ‘No’ to violence, terrorism and certainly war. The weapon industry has to be dismantled; ironically many of them are located in the West. War is a failure of diplomacy and absence of dialogue. War also is a reflection of incompetence of geo-politics. 

India could make up the void by reviving dialogues based on the above principles. The size of GDP alone will not help. It is the intellectual resources, civilizational values, a Universalist and a humanist approach that will do it. To be sure, in principle, India has them all. What is needed is the political will driven by determination and conviction. ---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

POLL PROSPECTS AND THE INDIAN VOTER, By Inder Jit, 30 November 2023 Print E-mail

REWIND

New Delhi, 30 November 2023

POLL PROSPECTS AND THE INDIAN VOTER

By Inder Jit 

(Released on 24 October 1989) 

India’s electorate seems to have come of age, judging by the general atmosphere. The surprise announcement of the Lok Sabha poll did cause considerable excitement. So did the added decision to hold simultaneous Assembly polls in U.P., Karnataka and some other States. Nevertheless, life has continued to flow at its normal pace. There is no sign yet of any wave, big or small. Rival party conclaves have met to finalize their respective manifestoes and decide on candidates, but without any noticeable fervour outside. No one eagerly waited for the party manifestoes. The interest in the tickets remained limited to the aspirants, their families and friends. This is how it should be in any mature system. Parliamentary democracy provides for day to day struggle for power and continuous education. Every sitting of Parliament helps people to know and judge the rulers as well as the Opposition. Ultimately, voters go mainly by broad impression. 

Both the Congress-I and the Opposition speak confidently of success. Appropriately, Mr Rajiv Gandhi, like Indira Gandhi, prefers not to speak in terms of numbers. However, those around him talk stridently of bagging at least 300 to 325 seats out of the total of 528 seats, excluding 14 of Assam. The Centre’s Intelligence Bureau is said to have made two assessments in recent weeks in keeping with a practice started during Indira Gandhi’s time. The first is said to have given the Congress-I 350 seats and the second 325. But experienced non-Congress-I politicians reject the assessment out of hand asserting: “Remember, the IB cocksurely told Indira Gandhi in 1977 that she would win hands down!” Mr V.P. Singh, too, prefers not to join the guessing game of numbers. However, Mr Devi Lal assuredly predicted a landslide in favour of the Opposition. He told me: “We will repeat Haryana all over India. We will win 450 seats!” 

At least, one knowledgeable Congressman agrees with the Chaudhuri. We should know. He had the privilege of working as a trusted aide of Indira Gandhi for many years. Three weeks ago, he gave the Congress-I 150 seats. Last week, however, he told me in Parliament’s Central Hall: “Now it will be no more than 111 seats. Take Bihar. I give the Congress-I 5 seats out of 54 below the Ganga and 5 seats above. I am unable to pick even 20 sure seats for the Congress-I in U.P. out of a total of 85.” Importantly, two senior Bihar Congressmen present did not disagree. Could I identify him? “Not yet,” he said. “Let us first see who are the candidates.” Another shrewd Congress-I leader seemed to agree on the crucial importance of the candidates. He told me: “The Congress-I and the Opposition presently enjoy 35 per cent support each. Thirty per cent is the floating vote. They will make up their minds only on the basis of the candidates - and the prevailing hawa.” 

A few factors, however, seem to be clear. Broadly, the Opposition continues to be Mr Rajiv Gandhi’s best friend, just as Mr Rajiv Gandhi has become the Opposition’s best bet. The National Front today is more united than a month ago. However, it does not still inspire full confidence of the people as a credible alternative to the Congress-I. Even the vast number who feel that Mr V.P. Singh can give India a clean and efficient Government are not sure if he would be allowed to become Prime Minister by rival aspirants even if the National Front was to get a majority. Mr Gandhi, for his part, has greatly undermined his own credibility not only by the Bofors scandal but also by what are widely described as his “many failures”, especially the recent spurt in prices. This is important in the context of one basic fact of electoral life. Negative votes are crucial. Governments are voted out. The Opposition is seldom voted in. 

Mr Gandhi may, however, be said to have done well by himself by the surprise poll timing, which appeared momentarily to have caught the Opposition on the wrong foot. In one stroke, he has re-established his democratic credentials in the face of persistent talk that he would manipulate to somehow get the poll put off for a year through the imposition of Emergency, even if this involved a “limited scrap” with Pakistan in Punjab or Kashmir. He has also scotched rumours that he would first topple the Devi Lal Government in Haryana. Simultaneously, Mr Gandhi has impressed many with his little-known capacity to play politics like his mother and fully exploit both the Panchayati Raj and Nagarpalika bills as also their defeat at the hands of the Opposition. Not only that. Many had expected him to delay the poll because of more revelations in the Bofors scandal. He has now projected an image of courage by choosing to face the people earlier than he need have. 

Much will eventually depend upon two things. First, the ability of the Opposition to come together and ensure a one-to-one contest through formal or informal arrangements. Second, the ability of the Congress-I to ensure effective unity in its ranks. To take the second first. Infighting has time and again played havoc with the Congress-I in poll battles. It could cause even greater disaster this year when a question-mark has gone up over Mr Gandhi’s capacity as a vote-getter. The Prime Minister has, no doubt, tried to keep the Congress-I united by giving representation to all groups in the State Election Committees. But this does not mean that these Committees will put their party before self, choose the best candidate for the poll and work for victory. Candidly confided one leader: “Why should I do my best. Success will only strengthen the Chief Minister and the PCC Chief --- and destroy my own prospects.” 

Ten days ago, the chances of the Opposition ensuring one-to-one contests seemed bleak. But the sudden announcement of the poll has proved a blessing in disguise, as it did for the Opposition in 1977. It has forced the Opposition to bury the hatchet speedily and come together to give the Congress-I straight fight. The CPM has indicated the Left Front’s decision to join hands with the National Front, notwithstanding the latter’s arrangements, formal or otherwise, with the BJP. Two weeks ago, the CPM and the Congress-I seemed to be moving closer following Mr Jyoti Basu’s dinner meeting with Mr Gandhi and their friendly flight together to Haldia and back. But Mr Basu has since reiterated that the Congress-I is still the CPM’s Enemy No. 1. He has, no doubt, stated that the CPM will not share the platform with the BJP. He has, however, clarified that it has no objection if the Janata Dal has seat adjustments with the BJP. 

Speculation continues about the Muslim vote, especially in U.P. and Bihar where it has considerable clout in almost half their total seats -- 85 plus 54. Initially, the Muslims were said to be wholly anti-Congress-I in view of ‘anti-Muslim’ riots. But they are said to have started having second thoughts when the Janata Dal joined hands with the BJP, despite Communist protests. They were thereafter seen to be largely back in the Congress fold when the BJP reaffirmed its commitment to Hindu Rashtra --- and Mr L.K. Advani was seen performing Ram Shila Poojan. The strong secular stance taken by Mr V.P. Singh, Mr Devi Lal and others against politicising the Ram Janmabhoomi issue is said to have largely restored the original position -- anti-Congress-I and pro-Janata. Truth perhaps lies somewhere between the rival claims which slur over one fact. The Muslims do not necessarily operate as vote banks. 

In the final analysis, the vast majority of Indian voters can be counted upon to act maturely. They may not be highly educated and well-versed in modern idiom. But they have their two feet firmly on the ground and can differentiate between right and wrong, good and evil. They cannot be misled by gimmickry, frame-ups and brazen official propaganda on AIR and Doordarshan. In fact, all that has been sought to be put across has been more than neutralised by the weekly episode of the Mahabharat and lately of the Vishwamitra serial. These have refreshed and re-educated the masses in India’s great tradition and values of satya and asatya and the basic obligations of a good ruler. Every episode in recent weeks has come to be related willy nilly to present-day India and the crisis of values. The Nehru Centenary celebrations, too, have helped to crystallise the issues. Our people will surely give their verdict loud and clear. --- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

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