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Political Diary
EAM in Russia: A 2024 OUTLOOK, By Prof. (Dr.) D.K. Giri, 5 January 2024 |
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Round The World
New Delhi, 5 January
2024
EAM in Russia
A 2024 OUTLOOK
By Prof. (Dr.) D.K. Giri
(Secretary General, Assn for
Democratic Socialism)
The External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar made a year-end
visit to Russia to enhance ties. He had extensive discussions with his
counterpart Sergey Lavrov and other stakeholders in India-Russia bilateralism
that has been strongly continuing since 1971. In addition to the usual trade
and diplomatic exchanges, it would be interesting to decipher the strategic
line the EAM would have taken for the New Year. Unarguably, India’s position
vis-à-vis the United States and Russia is perhaps the most important strategic
question India needs to address in 2024.
It may be in the fitness of things to allude to the US
thinking on China and Russia who are currently in a tight embrace. Whether
India agrees with the US perspective on this alliance and needs to align its
own strategy with the US thinking is another geo-political corollary New Delhi
ought to cognize. By far, the most arresting articulations have come from the
Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy. As he disclaimed himself, he was not
laying out his strategy vis-à-vis India-China-Russia as he has an Indian name,
it is his conviction that such a line would be in the best interest of the US.
The Republican candidate Ramaswamy wants to put his “laser
focus on pulling Russia out of its alliance with China. According to him that
will mean ending Russia’s war on Ukraine on reasonable terms that dilutes
Russia-China tie-up.” He says he would fly to Moscow and give a categorical
assurance to Putin that NATO will not include Ukraine into its fold. Ukraine
should no longer demand the retrieval of Crimea. At any rate, he would bring an
end to the war, which is inflicting heavy costs on the US and others, and more important,
which will reduce Russian dependence on China.
Strategically, Ramaswamy wants to balance economic issues
with national security concerns. His second premise is that the Chinese
Communist Party is the biggest threat to the United States. It is no longer the
Soviet Union which used to be the main adversary of the US as the former
broke-up in 1991. Ramaswamy said that he would be looking forward to expanding
relations with India in order to counter China. He emphasised, “the US should
have a stronger strategic relationship with India, including even a military
relationship in the Andaman Sea. Knowing that India, if necessary, could block
the Malacca Strait through which actually China gets most of its Middle-East
oil supplies. These are areas for real improvement in the US-India
relationship”. Furthermore, he cited India, Israel, Brazil and Chile as
countries he wants to build trade ties with in order to become completely
economically independent from China.
Jaishankar in his visit met the Russian President Vladimir
Putin, held discussions with Deputy Prime Minister and the Minister of
Industries and with his counterpart Sergey Lavrov. His interactions centred on
bolstering the Special and Privileged Partnership. As usual, the exchanges
covered multiple sectors such as trade and economics, energy, defence,
connectivity, cultural and people-to-people. Global and regional developments
also featured in their discussions. President Putin invited Prime Minister Narendra
Modi to visit Russia in 2024. Putin said to EAM, “we will be glad to see our
friend Mr. Prime Minister Modi in Russia”.
From the available accounts of the visit, not much
substantially accrued from EAM’s interactions with several leaders, officials and
a cross-section of agencies. A plenty of shibboleths and usual hyperboles was
on display. Even the tangled issue of India buying military gear after the US
sanctions following the Ukrainian war was not resolved. On the contrary, the
indication got reconfirmed that India’s traditional dependence on Russia for
military supplies is steadily declining. There were tight-lipped statements
both from EAM and Russians about the prospect of military trade between the two
countries.
Notably, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that Russia
was ‘respectful’ of New Delhi’s need to ‘diversify’ military procurement and sources
for other technical requirements. It seems the decoupling between New Delhi and
Moscow on military ties is sinking in faster in Russia than in India.
Perhaps it is in order that New Delhi reviews its military
trade policy with Russia. Objective observers have long contended that India
has been at a loss in more than one way in its defence relations with the Soviet
Union/Russia. Talking of the present, India is awaiting delivery of several
defence equipments from Russia. To mention just one deal, India’s military
expected delivery of 70,000-80,000 Kalashnikov AK-203 assault rifles some of
which were to be built with Russian technology in Uttar Pradesh. That
consignment did not arrive. Consequently, Ministry of Defence approved the
purchase of 73,000 additional Sig Saur patrol rifles from the US on the request
of the Indian army. The Indian Army Chief General Manoj Pandey had confidently
announced that the Army would receive AK-203s by March, which did not
materialise.
There are quite a few logistical and transactional issues
currently on India-Russia military trade which may or may not get resolved
quite soon. Besides these, Russia’s defence industrial complex faces a few
challenges at the moment. Moscow needs to focus on manufacturing and supplying
defence products to the Russian army. Some of Russian companies have offered
alternative formats of cooperation in the global arms market. This gave a clear
message to Russia’s overseas clients, including India, that Russian defence
companies would not be able to meet the needs the overseas requirements due to
the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The second challenge for the Russian defence industries
stems from sanctions imposed by the West on Russia following the war. Third,
the setbacks and stalemate in the war put a question mark on Russian military
capability as many observers believe that the Russian army is struggling with
sub-standard defence material. Indian military experts are suggesting that it
is high time India ends its dependence on Russian military supplies and instead
becomes self-reliant or finds alternative suppliers.
The Russian declining military power as well as trade
foregrounds India’s need to align with the strategy being conceived by US
leadership as is evident from the utterances of one of the candidates mentioned
above. His rating in the opinion polls has apparently increased after he
outlined his foreign policy. There is a concern in Indian circles that while
Washington wants India to disengage from Russia, it continues to patronise
Pakistan and offers to make-up with China.
This is where Indian diplomacy has to weigh in. New Delhi
needs to drive home the strategic point that Russia is not USA’s main adversary,
it is China which is a threat not only to the US but to many other countries,
and if we recall catastrophic Covid, then to the entire world. This could
perhaps be one significant writing on the wall New Delhi should be cognizant of
from the EAM’s last week’s five-day visit to Russia. ---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature
Alliance)
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Inter-State Trade: FARMERS TO GAIN VIA COOP, By Dr. S. S. Chhina, 4 January 2024 |
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Events & Issues
New Delhi, 4 January 2024
Inter-State Trade
FARMERS TO GAIN VIA COOP
By Dr. S. S. Chhina
(Senior Fellow, Institute of
Social Sciences, N Delhi)
The words of an English
bureaucrat, M L Darling in the beginning of the twentieth century that “Indian
farmer is born in debt lives in debt and dies in death” are still relevant even
today. He tried to mitigate this problem by evolving and spreading Cooperative
Credit societies. But the debt went on thriving rather than depleting. About 74
per cent of farmers in India are having their holding of less than 2.5 acres
and 93 per cent are having less than 10 acres.
According to farm experts,
holdings less than 10 acres are not economical. And thus, it’s not worthwhile for
these small farmers alone to think of inter-state or foreign trade. Rather,
it’s possible only through Farm cooperatives. Serious thought by policy makers must
be given to evaluate if Dairy cooperatives can be a viable successful model for
the marginalised farmers, why is it not being tried for other products?
State governments need to do
more, be different to be successful. Punjab could be an
example. It seeks to take the lead. Recently, it called a meeting of
officials of Marketing Boards of various states to promote inter-state trade
within the country for the remunerative price of produce to farmers as well as supply
of quality products at affordable price to the people. It is prudent and need
of the hour. The project can be helpful to enhance the farmers’ income. The
already tested and successful model of Dairy cooperatives can be a basis to
turn it into practice.
The state has experienced and
realised 9% of Dairy contribution in the state Gross Domestic Product whereas
this proportion is only 5% at the national level. The total contribution of
agriculture in Punjab’s GSDP (gross state domestic product) is 19 % where 9% of
dairy is a significant quantum. The dairy cooperatives have made the
village-based dairy farmer a shareholder in the export business of dairy
products, which was never possible by a single farmer, irrespective of the size
of his farm.
Apparently, 140 crores of
population living in different states is the biggest market for the world, where
17.6 per cent of the world population is residing, and every country is
interested to sell its products and services in India. But India, where still
60 per cent of the population is dependent on farming, must be self-sufficient
at least in its farm needs.
India is the largest producer,
largest consumer but largest importer of pulses, where it is importing pulses
worth 1.5 lakh crores of rupees annually. Similarly, the country is importing
edible oils worth one lakh crore of rupees. The agricultural policy of India
must focus on being self-sufficient in these two types of farm products. It
needs a helpful marketing policy for these two products.
There are specific reasons for
Punjab to lead it. Punjab is the state that contributes maximum to turn the country
as food exporter from its position of food importing country. India has been
exporting rice to several countries for many years. The farm exports suggest
the diversification of crops to raise the levels of employment and income where
a major force in farming is underemployed. The per household farm loan is
maximum in India. As the state has a variety of Agro climatic regions, it is
capable of producing variety of crops, including pulses and oilseeds.
Though the government has
announced the MSP for 23 crops it has undertaken to procure only wheat and
paddy, being the main food crops. Otherwise also, it is not easy to procure
each and every crop. Punjab has 80 lakh acres under paddy cultivation, but experts
suggest reducing it to half. It is possible only with the assured marketing and
remunerative prices as well as the insurance of minimum income. And this is easily
possible through cooperatives.
The inter-state trade of farm
products is not possible for a farmer. The traders are already doing it. But
the farmer has no share in it. Punjab contributes almost 85 per cent in the
export of Basmati. The traders are enjoying big profits, but the farmer has no
share in such profits. It is imperative to adopt an alternative which assures a
share to the farmer in the farm trade. There are fluctuations in agricultural
production leading to the rise and fall in prices. This volatility might be
affecting the consumers as well as the producer, the farmer. But it never
affects the trader of farm products. The rise and fall in prices have no effect
on the trader. He continues to enjoy the perpetual profits.
It has been observed that in
certain cases, retail prices of vegetables and fruits are four times higher
than the harvested crops. Again, the farmer has no share in it. The situation
in Indian farming requires creation of a share of the farmer and that can be done
only by cooperative marketing societies based on crops like Basmati,
vegetables, fruits and oil seeds etc. These societies may function on the
pattern of Dairy cooperatives.
A big role of the patronisation
of the Government is to protect the farmer in the harvesting season and to
protect the consumer in the off-season as is being done for wheat and paddy.
The Government procures wheat and paddy at the harvest time so that the farmers
may not be exploited by the trader and similarly the consumer should be
protected in the off-season so that he may not be exploited. This can be done
for all the crops through cooperatives with the support of the government.
India is far behind in processing
of agro-products which can also boost farm income. The farmers can easily have
their shares in these products again through cooperative processing plants. It
was done in Dairy cooperatives, where the dairy farmer remains the shareholder
in the profits earned by the export of dairy products. It has been observed
that cooperatives have by and large failed in India. But these must succeed and
be adopted on the basis of farm products. And there should be no further delay.---INFA
(Copyright, India News &
Feature Alliance)
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Mimicry & Politics: REAL ISSUES GET ECLIPSED, By Dhurjati Mukherjee, 3 January 2024 |
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Open Forum
New Delhi, 3 January
2024
Mimicry & Politics
REAL ISSUES GET ECLIPSED
By Dhurjati Mukherjee
Mimicry and sarcasm in various forms has become a part and
parcel of Indian politics, specially in recent times. Sarcasm over something said
which goes against societal norms may not be considered offensive and can be taken
with a pinch of salt. But certain types of mockery that is seen today is quite
nasty in nature and is unacceptable in an educated and civilised society. But
can the country claim to be educated and polished?
Mention may be made of instances of the powerful flinging
mockery down at the powerless, men taking pot shots at women, the savarna rich laughing at people from
lower castes or with less money, the mainstream sneering at marginalised
groups, the English medium educated babus
imitating those who don’t speak the language as well or at their pronunciation,
etc. Even references criticising others’ religious sentiments and habits can be
viewed as in poor taste.
The recent controversy triggered during the winter session
of Parliament with TMC MP Kalyan Banerjee mimicking Rajya Sabha Chairman
Jagdeep Dhankar outside the House did hit headlines alright, and at the same
time raised questions over the correctness of the latter’s reaction. The chairman’s
reference to his caste and the farming community in the context of the mimicry had
responses from Opposition leaders that he was going overboard, and hell bent on
engaging in a kind of politicking that is not in tune with the office he holds.
The impression created that the Opposition combine, INDIA
bloc, particularly Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, who filmed the mimicry,
insulted the Jats was blown out of context. The Chairman, many said should not have brought
in caste or class factor when the chair he occupies is what must matter. Congress
President Mallikarjun Kharge for one, rightly asked whether he should also
blame BPJ MPs for not letting him speak in the House because he is a “Dalit”? Some
even recalled Prime Minister Modi’s caustic, and rather distasteful, “Didi o
Didi” remark against West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.
The Opposition rightly pointed out that the entire Modi
ecosystem was galvanised on the so-called mimicry non-issue, while it remained
silent on the real issue of security lapse in Parliament and why and how a BJP
MP from Mysuru facilitated entry of two intruders into Lok Sabha on December
13th (who are now charged under the anti-terror law UAPA.)
Ironically, the Chairman’s emotional weapon that the
mimicry was an insult to the Jats would be viewed as blunted given that the government
itself showed little concern for the community. Olympic medallist, Sakshi Malik
announced her retirement from wrestling in protest against BJP MP Brij Bhushan
Sharan Singh’s continuing dominance over the wrestling federation. Even Bajrang
Punia, another wrestler of international repute, who too is a Jat, returned his
Padma Shri over the episode.
The present type of mimicry witnessed nowadays by
politicians, particularly during the election season is distasteful, and needs
to be curtailed. Unfortunately, resorting to sarcasm or mimicry is increasingly
getting cheers from the crowds, the uneducated masses and the politicians revelling
in it. The moderate section of the BJP, say someone like Atal Behari Vajpayee
may have eschewed the mode due to his elegant outlook and concern for ethics in
politics and society.
Living as we currently are in a mimicry of democracy with a
mimicry of hollowed out checks and balances, with not even a pretence of a free
media in existence across most of the country, perhaps the only choice we have
is to keep enacting sharply revealing mimicries. It is indeed distressing to
note that the sarcasm being inflicted on us by the ruling elite has perhaps no
parallels. More so because of its tall claims of governance, democratic
plurality, judicious approach and secular attitude.
The low levels of political discourse that are manifest
nowadays is a cause for concern. Apart from indiscriminate violence in some
states, there is also a tendency to buy voters which indeed calls for a ‘mockery
of democracy’. All talks of democratic plurality, decent criticism have no
meaning, as politics has turned nasty and even educated political personalities
have to change their stand and follow the party discourse.
For political culture to develop there is a genuine need
for educated and dedicated personalities. An example could be of Odisha Chief
Minister Naveen Patnaik, who has the vision and capacity to take prompt
decisions and is interested in serving the masses. The state is a classic case
which has been transformed from a food deficit one to a food surplus state with
its economy growing over 18 times in a little over two decades from around Rs
47,000 crore in 2001-02 to Rs 8.6 lakh crore in 2022-23. Moreover, it may be
pointed out that the Eastern region’s educational hub has shifted from Kolkata
to Bhubaneswar.
How has this been accomplished? Perhaps, he brags less than
his counterpart in West Bengal, who too has penchant of indulging in mimicry
against rival BJP and humouring the masses. But such political manoeuvres may not last
long as awareness is growing, and people want results. Political change is
necessary, and this can come about if there is professional ethics among party
cadres. Moreover, fanaticism by the political establishment that they preach to
gain false popularity among the uneducated masses must come to an end. The
Election Commission has a major role to play by ensuring poll campaigns must
adhere to basic norms.
Indian politics has reached a vicious stage where the
situation is making the voter feel useless and small. There is little bondage
amongst the community and animosity, narrow-mindedness and jealousy in society is
dangerously rising. Our struggle today cannot be limited to one political party
or its affiliates. The question is whether a change in government may make a
fundamental difference and offer hope of the country being a robust democracy
or following egalitarian and inclusive principles.
Political transformation is called for and this can be
accomplished by leaders who qualified, sincere, honest and earn the confidence
of the aam janata. Mimicry, as is being indulged in can evoke a few
laughs alright but it can’t hide reality that the government must perform and
serve the people. The polity must remember Abraham Lincoln’s famous words: ‘You
can fool all people some of the time and some people all the time. But you can
never fool all people all the time.’---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature
Alliance)
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India 2024: CHALLENGES AHEAD, By Poonam I Kaushish, 2 January 2024 |
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Political Diary
New Delhi, 2 January 2024
India 2024
CHALLENGES AHEAD
By Poonam I Kaushish
Every time one tears a leaf off a calendar one sees a new
place for new ideas and progress. So should one uncork champagne and roll out
drums? By welcoming 2024 on wings of new hopes and promises? As 2023 goes go
down in history as une année charnière, a
tumultuous year, a mixed bag, India steps into 2024 with cautious hope as new
set of challenges confront it.
Politically, this year will see the world’s largest
democratic exercise of general elections being held. A testament to roots that
democracy has sunk in the country where less than 8 decades ago only quarter of
people were eligible to vote and literacy levels in large swathes didn’t cross
double digits. A ringing endorsement of our democratic ethos.
Politically, if BJP’s Modi wins a third successive
five-year Prime Ministerial term, he will be the first leader to do so since Congress’s
Nehru. NaMo, as is his wont, drew a wide arc that seeks to encompass “550 years
virasat with vikas, adhunikta with parampara
where Viksit Bharat get Nayi Urja drawing upon aastha and Digital India synergies,” in
‘New Ayodhya’ readied for Lord Ram’s consecration 22 January.
Alongside, using “labharthi”
to reconstitute citizenship bringing under it farmers, poor, youth, women
calling them the four biggest castes, “saanjhi
taakat” of targeted welfare schemes, fulfillment of “Modi’s guarantees,” infrastructure upgrade,
rescinding Article 370 and temple as the
centerpiece of its formidable dare of a tough electoral challenge to the 26
Opposition Parties INDIA Bloc.
Questionable, can Opposition’s strategy to present a united
front derail BJP’s juggernaut? Can Congress’s Rahul, regional satraps TMC’s Chief
Mamata, NCP, DMK, JD(U), RJD put aside their differences? Can it counter BJP’s
‘reinvented’ citizenship by re-invoking Mandal
read caste census, by underscoring the unfulfilled agenda of social
justice? Can it compromise on seat
sharing?
The challenge will have to take into account BJP has honed
and hardened its core message and added layers to its appeal. Presently, Mandir is not just ‘colliding’ with Mandal but also co-opted it. Certainly,
while the unfinished societal impartiality agenda might be a counter-strategy,
is Congress, INDIA a credible vehicle of that vision? Importantly, does it have
the capacity?
Pertinently, Treasury-Opposition distrust was starkly
visible in Parliament’s winter session with 146 MPs suspended for “misconduct,”
showcasing how dysfunctional the legislature has become. Amidst the continuing
logjam and penchant for notching up brownie points, all conveniently brush
under the carpet that Parliament is a sacred symbol of our democracy. The onus
is on both Government and Opposition to ensure smooth running of both Houses.
Time our MPs realize their key job is to legislate. Remember,
Parliamentary democracy does not begin and end with elections, it’s a
continuous process whereby even as Opposition has its say, Government has its
way. The electorate takes a cue from Parliament. A House that functions in a
healthy atmosphere of dialogue, dissent and debate sends out a positive message
to people.
Besides, in an era of political polarisation and contest,
multiplicity and overlapping of identities, increasingly,
we are getting more casteist and communal whereby a distraught India is
searching for her soul under an increasing onslaught of intolerance and
criminalization.
Amidst this aakrosh, the common man continues to struggle for roti, kapada aur makaan with an
increasingly angry and restive janata
demanding answers. Sick of crippling
morass of our neo-Maharajas with their power trappings
and suffering from Acute Orwellian syndrome of “some-are-more-equal-than-others”
and Oliver’s disorder, “always asking for more”.
Tragically, nobody has time for aam aadmi’s growing disillusionment with
the system which explodes in rage. Turn to any mohalla, district or State, the story is mournfully the same.
Resulting in more and more people taking law into their own hands and borne out
by increasing rioting and looting.
Capital Delhi is
replete with gory tales of crime and murders. The system has become so sick
that women are raped in crowded trains with co-passengers as mute spectators.
Sporadically converting the country into andher
nagri wherein our sensibilities are benumbed.
The daily despicable beastly horrors of sexual
harassment and assault on women
fails to trouble our collective conscience.
As the New Year unfolds, India will have to contend with an
increasingly unstable world with foreboding, as wars in Ukraine and Gaza spill
over and escalate and new ones erupt in incipient fault lines across the world.
The most powerful instruments of violence are available to State and non-State
actors. This embrace of unrestrained violence is matched by new instruments of
war wonders of technological advancement whose frenetic pace is leaving Government’s
bedazzled and bewildered.
Domestically,
Government needs to look at how security challenges in Jammu & Kashmir and
Manipur can be addressed while ameliorating inflamed public opinion over the
ambush of security personnel, custodial killings in Poonch, Naxal menace and
strife in Manipur. Clearly, New Delhi needs to deal with the unfolding
situation sympathetically as it could lead to multiple fault lines, which could
polarise our plural society and threaten the survival of the Indian State.
On the external front India relations with China and
Pakistan are like playing poker. Show no emotions even as one plans strategy,
play is multi-causal, defiantly stand one’s
ground and gambling on a winning hand. Despite
umpteen military and diplomatic dialogues over-22 months and continuing
standoff in Eastern Ladakh, Beijing continues to take “incremental and
tactical” actions to press its claims along the LAC. While elections in
Pakistan and Bangladesh might become portends of more instability in South
Asia, New Delhi needs to keep a keen eye on their political churn.
It is a paradox of our
times that just when most of our challenges and threats to our well-being have
become global, our attitudes have become more narrowly national. There is no
alternative to truly collaborative responses delivered through empowered institutions
of governance whose guiding principle is equity.
As we move ahead our leaders need
to stop getting their shorts in knots over excessive trivia, get their act
together, take responsibility, amend their ways and address real serious issues
of governance. They must realize India’s democratic prowess owes its
resilience to the aam aadmi. Our
policy makers need to redouble their efforts on the ease of living as people want jobs, transparency and accountability including
bolstering public health, plugging learning gaps in education.
Besides, no matter who wins or loses Modi and INDIA Opposition bloc needs to put
its act together with leaders with grit and determination who can and are ready
to build a new India as there are shared stakes in a life together built by a
multi-plural society of diverse people and communities which constitute the
life of a nation.
Ultimately, when the battle of ideas and
ideologies skid and careen noisily our rulers need to focus on what they are going to do to make 2024 a good year. Time to get
back to basics, build a climate safe country and reignite the magic of
simplicity and minimalism. They need to become more humane and painstakingly
secure heritage of multi-faith tolerance and grass-root democracy whereby, the principles
of ‘Jus Ad Bellum’: right authority,
right intention and reasonable hope dictate our responses. What gives? ----
INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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AI To Hit Global Economy : IMPACT POLLS, TOPPLE GOVTS, By Shivaji Sarkar, 1 January |
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Economic Highlights
New Delhi, 1 January
2024
AI To Hit Global Economy
IMPACT POLLS, TOPPLE GOVTS
By Shivaji Sarkar
The
global economy is at stake as both the World Bank and the European Union fear
artificial intelligence (AI) manipulating 70 countries, including the world’s
largest democracies -- India, the US and Russia -- going to polls in
2024.Others to join the polls include Taiwan, Brazil, Indonesia, Pakistan. And
all will be experiencing their first AI election, says British journal The
Economist adding “Disinformation campaigns may be supercharged in 2024”.
The
Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) estimates that AI is poised to
contribute $15.7 trillion to the global economy. However, the World Bank
underscores the challenges posed by AI, labelling 2023 as the year of
inequality and 2024 as the year of artificial intelligence. This, in turn,
intensifies battles against conflict, violence, food security, and climate
change, making economic stability elusive, particularly for the world’s poorest
nations, including India.Jobs except for gig, temporary-online work, are not
growing.
The
worry among nations stems from the potential for AI to manipulate information
on a larger scale than the traditional social media or manual public relations
methods. The upcoming elections, particularly Taiwan’s in January 2024, carry
global significance. The contest between the Democratic Progressive Party and
the Kuomintang, coupled with Beijing’s alleged involvement through cyber
warfare, adds a geopolitical dimension to the concerns.
Ethan
Bueno de Mesquita, interim Dean at the University of Chicago Harris School of
Public Policy, predicts that the 2024 elections will be an ‘AI election’,
comparable to the impact of social media in 2016 and 2020 changing politics.
Luminate’s survey reveals widespread European concerns about AI and deepfake
technology, with over 70% of respondents in the UK and Germany expressing concern
about its potential threat to elections and democracy.
India
grapples with AI controversies involving sophisticated IT cells within numerous
political parties, coupled with ongoing debates surrounding electronic voting
machines (EVMs). The Opposition’s vocal scrutiny and the suspension of 146
opposition MPs step up the atmosphere leading up to the polls. Concurrently,
the nation witnesses a substantial 30.8 percent surge in AI investment,
reaching a notable $881 million, according to Nasscom.
More
people think social media companies hurt democracy instead of strengthening it.
Referencing historical examples, Professor Paul M Vaaler of the University of
Minnesota highlights the influence of multinational corporations (MNCs) in
electoral politics, emphasising a potential repeat scenario with AI. He says
that between 1987 and 2000 MNCs invested $199 billion in 18 developing
countries and replaced governments – right with left and left with right.
Microsoft’s
chief economist, Michael Schwarz, warns of bad actors meddling in elections
through AI-driven spams, while also acknowledging the lucrative potential of AI
development. Interestingly, AI is likely to generate $30 billion for Microsoft
over an investment of $1 billion in 2019.
Despite
previous concerns surrounding the 2020 US elections and ongoing AI battles in
Europe, the lack of AI regulations and widespread distrust in political
establishments may keep the concerns about technology misuse hidden. It still
remains a volatile issue between Democrat President Joe Biden and former President
Donald Trump. The G7 and G-20, viewed as hotbeds of global MNCs influencing
policies, contribute to growing inequality among countries, leading to social
and political unrest globally.
India,
facing a Hobson’s choice regarding AI involvement, grapples with economic
challenges, including high debt levels, growing gig jobs, and concerns about
the quality of employment. The GDP is growing for sure as high debt figures
also add to it. The low value gig jobs being created syncs with the World Bank’s
concern of loss in quality employment.
India
debt has touched Rs 169 lakh crore, foreign debt exceeds $629 billion, though the
Finance Ministry has allayed IMF fears of debt reaching 100 percent of GDP in
2028-28. The level at present is 81 percent and the Ministry says it is
reducing. India’s public and private capital expenditures are shrinking.
Private expenses declined by 55 percent and public by 68 percent, according to the
Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE).
Fears
rise about the use and misuse of AI ahead of next year’s elections around the
world that will see billions of people come out to vote.Pime Minister
NarendraModi has cautioned against AI misuse in elections in India, echoing
fears of deepfake technology after a video of him dancing surfaced. He suspected
it was a video generated using AI that appeared real. Some fact-checkers
revealed that the garba, a traditional Gujarati dance performance, was
done by a Modi look alike and was not an AI-generated clip.
During
Telangana elections, the BRS complained to the Election Commissionthat the Congress
used AI to discredit its party President KT Rama Rao. BJP has been using AI
campaigns since 2020 with its Member of Parliament Manoj Tiwari’s AI generated
videos. The party said that it had partnered with a private company to generate
deepfakes that reached 15 million people in 5800 WhatsApp groups. Now other
parties are also using it to reach a larger audience.Companies around Delhi
have gone into producing many AI-generated campaign materials for the LokSabhaelections
from village to national level. Clips can be made for Rs 5000 to higher values.
An Ernst
& Young survey finds Indian corporate CEOs yearning for AI investment but
are cautious yet to commit but admit that this is India’s moment to shape the
future of the AI-led Industrial Revolution.
The disruptive effects of AI may
also influence wages, income distribution and economic inequality. Rising
demand for high-skilled workers capable of using AI could push their wages up,
while many others may face a wage squeeze or unemployment. But AI is also about
high investments. It can bring in transformative changes in healthcare,
education, banking, industry, agriculture, manufacturing, industry, marketing
and a host of other applications. The growth co-efficient suggests that
on an average a unit increase in AI intensity can return $ 67.25 billion of 2.5
percent of GDP to the Indian economy.
As AI’s disruptive effects on
wages, income distribution and economic inequality become apparent, balancing
technological advancement with cautious regulation becomes imperative. Despite
fears of remote political intervention, the inexorable march of technological
progress mandates adherence to western practices to ensure responsible use in
polling and governance processes.---INFA
(Copyright, India News &
Feature Alliance)
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