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Claims and Poll Prospects, By Inder Jit, 21 March 2024

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New Delhi, 21 March 2024

Claims and Poll Prospects

By Inder Jit

(Released on 25 September 1979)

Predictably if prematurely, the poll guessing game is on again. Anyone who even looks like having some clue about the popular mood and the possible outcome of the forthcoming general election is in demand. So also are the astrologers who are better placed than most others they have at least Bhrigu Samhita and the stars to go by not only those in seats of authority and their cohorts, but hundreds of others all over the country are busy getting them to peer into the future. Those anxious to retain power of aspiring to membership of Parliament want help to determine their prospects and tactics. Celestial guidance is also sought by scores of captains of industry and others to decide on the political horses they should profitably back and the best way in which they should hedge their bets. Seasoned politicians and observers alone prefer not to commit themselves and speak in parables or in general terms. Candidly, a discussion in terms of numbers is unduly early. The situation is still largely fluid notwithstanding loud, rival blasts.

Anything can happen between now and the New Year; the poll, according to latest indications, is still likely to be held on or about December 30. This will depend upon a combination of several factors: the prevailing circumstances at the time and the ability of the rival parties effectively to pose vital issues at stake before the people and to shake them out of their tragic indifference to their own long-term interest and that of their children. The situation has already changed greatly since August 22 when the President, Mr Sanjiva Reddy, dissolved the Lok Sabha unexpectedly. The Janata Party and its leaders found themselves down in the dumps that day. Within 48 hours, however, they were smiling again when Mr Morarji Desai and others addressed a “protest meeting” at the Ramlila grounds. Even the most optimistic among the Janata leaders were taken by surprise. Over a lakh of persons turned up at short notice in sharp contrast to the attendance at two earlier meetings, one convened by Janata (S) and the other by Congress (I).

Happily for the Janata leaders, their party prospects appear to have improved over the past month. On August 26, a top Janata leader told me: “Bombay’s welcome to Morarjibhai has been even better than the turnout in New Delhi. We should be able to get as many seats as we held in the dissolved Lok Sabha: about 200.” On Thursday, September 20, Mr Chandra Shekhar told me: “We will win at least 225 seats. We may well bag 300 if the present trend continues.” The Janata chief feels particularly confident on three grounds. First, popular response. “The crowds everywhere”, he says, “are twice those of 1977 and as enthusiastic.” Second, the people’s anger against the Janata is now turning against Janata (S). Few are willing to buy Mr Charan Singh’s “alibis” for the spurt in prices. Third, the people’s continuing abhorrence of authoritarianism. Asserts Mr Chandra Shekhar: “The 1977 vote was not negative. Our people voted positively for freedom and democracy.”

If Mr Chandra Shekhar is confident, Mrs Indira Gandhi, Mr Charan Singh and their respective confidants are no less optimistic. A senior Congress (I) leader told me: “Make no mistake, we are winning. Mrs Gandhi alone can give the country a strong and stable government. Our rock bottom is 240 seats. But we are hoping to win 350 seats.” He then explained: “We drew a virtual blank in the north in 1977. This time we expect to win here at least a hundred seats, giving us a minimum of 250 seats all over the country.” (Mrs Gandhi won 150 seats in 1977.) Top Janata (S) leaders dismiss the Janata and Congress (I) claims as “wishful thinking” and maintain: “Our Alliance alone will triumph. We will get at least 250 seats and may even go up to 325 seats. Each of our allies is going to concentrate in its respective stronghold. No, we shall not fritter away our energies. Chaudhury Sahib will concentrate in the north, Mr Urs and MGR in the south, Mr Chavan and Mr Pawar in the west and the CPM in the east.”

All these are essentially claims and counter-claims. Much will eventually depend upon certain vital factors and indicators -- the nature of the contests, straight, or multi-corner, and the attitude of the Harijans and the minorities who have played a crucial role in the poll outcome over the past three decades and more. The caste Hindus and the backward classes have, no doubt, constituted a majority among the electorate all along. But they have invariably reduced themselves to the position of a hopeless minority (and to nonce) by the unthinking manner in which they have exercised their franchise. Experience has shown that of every hundred Muslim voters, for instance, eighty or so make it a point to poll. What is more, all of them have generally voted for one common candidate. In sharp contrast, barely forty out of a hundred caste Hindus have normally cared to vote and, what is equally significant, they have invariably voted for ten or more candidates, if not for as many!

Not many remember certain basic features of India’s electoral landscape. Until the 1977 poll, the Congress virtually enjoyed the full or “captive” support of the Harijans and the minorities. This enabled the party to win electoral battles again and again. Some veteran observers place this support at about 25 per cent of the votes polled. The Congress thus required only a fraction of the remaining vote to win huge majorities; in 1971, it required merely an additional 18 per cent of the caste Hindu votes to win a massive majority of 352 of the 524 seats in the Lok Sabha on a minority mandate of 43 per cent --- 25 per cent plus 18 per cent. But the situation underwent a radical change in 1977, as a result of the Emergency and its many authoritarian excesses. The Muslims largely decided to oppose Mrs Gandhi and a sizable chunk of the Harijan vote also went against the Congress. The net result? The Congress Party got knocked for a six in the north and won seats only in the south.

Mrs Gandhi is well aware of the powerful support her party has received from the Harijans and the minorities. Indeed, it was this support as symbolised by Mr Jagjivan Ram and Mr Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed which enabled her to win her grim battle against the Syndicate in 1969 as also the poll of 1971. (Her first salvo against the Syndicate at the time of the great split, it may be recalled, was the joint letter Jagjivan Ram and Mr. Ahmed wrote to the then Congress President, Mr Nijalingappa, accusing him of “communalism” and of joining hands with the Jana Sangh!) Mrs Gandhi desperately tried to prevent any erosion in the support of the Harijans and the minorities in 1977. She clarified that Government action in regard to Harijans welfare had nothing to do with Mr Jagjivan Ram personally. She also repeatedly projected the Janata as a party dominated by Jana Sangh and the RSS. But all these efforts proved of little avail.

Much of what has been happening over the past few weeks is largely a part of the self-same exercise by the leading political parties: wooing the Muslim and Harijan voters by all means fair or soul and ensuring for themselves “some minimum committed support.” The Janata Party’s decision to go to the poll battle under the leadership of Mr Jagjivan Ram and to hold out to the Harijan voters the promise of giving them India’s first Harijan Prime Minister has created a major problem for both the Congress(I) end the Janata(S). More and more Harijans now appear inclined tο swing their support in favour of the Janata Party much to the chagrin of Mrs Gandhi. Efforts are consequently on to achieve one of two things: either get Babuji, as Mr Jagjivan Ram is popularly known, to somehow cross over to their side or to erode his credibility vis a vis the Harijan masses. Witness the occasional rumour that Babuji is about to join hands with Mrs Gandhi.

Ultimately, one thing alone is clear. There is little scope for going by the old and familiar indicators or by generalisations. The Muslims and the Harijans might have voted en bloc in the past. But neither can be taken for granted any more. Both communities today increasingly understand their abiding interest and are not going to be taken in by gimmickry. Likewise, the caste Hindus splintered their votes all these years. But they may not necessarily do so this time. (Lately, more and more people have been heard to say: “Is it a crime to be a Hindu?”) Again, Mrs Gandhi may appear to be riding a new wave of popularity. But there are still three months to go. The time for hard decisions is yet to come. --INFA.