Round The States

New Delhi, 5 June 2008

TRS Routed In Andhra

Telengana Statehood WIDE OPEN

By Insaf

The formation of a new State of Telengana from Andhra Pradesh is again wide open. This follows the resounding defeat of the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) in the by-elections to four Lok Sabha and 16 Legislative Assembly seats caused by the en masse resignation of its MPs and MLAs in protest against the Centre’s failure to carve out Telangana. Out of the four Lok Sabha seats, the TRS managed to retain only two while the Congress and TDP bagged one seat each. Of the 18 Assembly seats, the TRS could retain only 7 and the Congress and TDP wrested 6 and 5 seats each. More humiliating for the TRS was that its supremo K Chandrasekhar Rao retained his Lok Sabha seat with a slender margin while its Assembly floor leader had to bite dust. The writing is on the wall: The TRS faces an uncertain future.

For the Congress reeling under a series of electoral reversals, the results are a major moral booster. All eyes were on these by-elections rated as a ‘mini general election’ wherein an adverse result would have triggered a series of in-house crises. One, its State unit could have split as belligerent Telangana leaders were on the verge of a revolt  against the party high command’s failure to take a clear stand on the statehood issue. Demonstrated when senior leader G Venkataswamy forecast the party’s doom in the region at the CWC meet last week. Leading to senior leader Ahmed Patel visiting Venkataswamy to placate him that the party would address his concern. Two, it has snuffed out all rebellion against Chief Minister Y. Rajasekhar Reddy. For its arch rival TDP, the bypolls provided fresh lease of life.

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Barely had the euphoria over its victory in Karnataka sunk in, that the BJP found itself in a war of wits with the Governor Rameshwar Thakur. In a take-off on the classic which came-first-chicken-or-egg theory, both were caught in a Constitutional bind. While the BJP wanted the Governor to render the special address to the joint session of the Karnataka Legislature, Thakur asked the Saffron Sangh to first prove its majority on the floor of the Assembly, before he rendered his address. True, the BJP bowed to the Governor’s diktat, but in the process it opened the legal Pandora’s Box. Experts stated that the Governor’s directions were not in consonance with the Constitution. Article 176 states that there shall be a special address by the Governor at the commencement of the first session. Following which the business of the House shall be carried on.

The key word is “business”, stress legal experts. According to the Constitution, “business” of the House implied a floor test also. Hence technically, the Governor should have addressed the House before he ordered a floor test, they claim. However, Raj Bhawan thought otherwise. Citing the Bommai judgment, Governor Thakur held that a floor test was supreme before any action in the House could be undertaken. The BJP, argued that the Bommai judgment was just an interpretation and not above the Constitution. Moreover, the Governor had invited the Party to form the Government only after satisfying himself that it enjoyed a majority. Clearly, the Governor’s action has reopened the debate on retired or active politicians being appointed by the Centre to act as ‘its eyes and ears’ in the State. Thakur, once again has earned the ignominy of being called the “Centre’s stooge.”

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PDP-Congress Tussle Over Governor

After a lull the Congress and the PDP are once again locked in a tussle. This time on who should be the next occupant of Srinagar’s Raj Bhawan. With the term of Governor, General (Retd) S.K. Sinha, coming to an end soon, the PDP has conveyed its preference for a civilian and a secular person. The Chief Minister, Congress’ Ghulam Nabi Azad begs to differ. He is pushing for another term for General Sinha. He is skeptical about changing the Governor just months ahead of the Assembly elections later this year. The Centre on its part, is hooting for two former Union Home Secretaries, N.N. Vohra and V.K. Duggal. Adding to the confusion, Governor Sinha too has conveyed to New Delhi his inclination to continue “for some more time”. However, the Centre continues to hold the gubernatorial cards close to its chest.

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Assam-Meghalaya Fight Over Uranium

Till date the southern states were infamous for boundary disputes. But this malaise seems to have spread to the north-east where Assam and Meghalaya are locked in a border row over a remote village Lampih. Following the potential discovery of uranium in this tiny hamlet. To ensure that Lampih remains with it, the Assam Government has dangled lots of carrots including a health centre and motorable roads for 3,200 villagers who have to travel for six hours on horseback to reach the nearest road. Across the border, the Meghalaya Chief Minister is not taking things lying down. He has lodged a protest with the Centre and threatened to use force if Assam encroaches on the area. The contentious village, 97 km from Guwahati is populated by Nepali, Garo and Khasis. While the Khasis  hoot for Meghalaya, the Nepalis and Garos bat for Assam. In the fracas, the Uranium Corporation of India remains tight lipped.

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Kerala Strikes Discordant Note In Congress-CPM Ties

Even as the Left-UPA tango continues, discordant notes are growing louder in the Red strongholds. The Kerala Chief Minister, V S Achuthanandan lambasted the Centre for cutting the APL (Above Poverty Line) rice share of 87 per cent while the State was grappling with the unprecedented price rise. Accusing the Centre of turning a blind eye to the severe damage to paddy cultivation due to the unseasonal summer rains in March, the Chief Minister alleged that the Centre was not willing to grant monies for reviving the crops and fisheries sectors. He reminded the Centre that the Swaminathan Commission has recommended a comprehensive Central package to solve the agrarian crisis in the Idukki district. “But the Centre has not shown any readiness to accept this report and to grant the required amount,” he asserted.

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Mamata Drives Wedge In Left Front

If the RSP walking out of the UPA-Left Coordination Committee was not bad enough, the Trinamool’s stormy petrel Mamata Banerjee is busy driving a further wedge between the CPI(M) and its allies in the Left Front on the issue of land acquisition. Rejecting the Industry Minister plea that the State Government would work out a consensus with the new Trinamool Congress-led Zilla Parishads before going ahead with land acquisition, Mamata asserted: “They are speaking in many voices. We would respond only to those proposals which have the approval of the Cabinet and the Left Front Committee.” In support of her stand, she cites the Opposition of the Left partners RSP and Forward Bloc to setting up of industry on farm land. Adding to the CPM woes its General Secretary Biman Bose has confessed that the Party lost the Zilla Parishad elections due to corruption within in its cadres. ----INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Round The States

New Delhi, 29 May 2008

BJP Wins Karnataka

CONGRESS WORRIES ADD UP

By Insaf

Congress supremo Sonia Gandhi and her colleagues have reason to worry. They have not only lost Karnataka, and allowed the BJP to go across the Vindhayas, but they have fared miserably in the by-elections to the Lok Sabha and the State Assembly held elsewhere. The Congress lost the Tura Lok Sabha seat in Meghalaya, where the Nationalist Congress Party candidate Agatha Sangma defeated her Congress rival by nearly a lakh votes, the Thane seat in Maharashtra to the Shiv Sena and the Hamirpur seat, in Himachal to the BJP Chief Minister’s son Anurag Thakur. It also lost the Assembly by-elections in South Amritsar, Punjab to the Shiromani Akali Dal. In fact, since the Congress-led UPA Government came to power at the Centre in 2004, it has lost 8 major States: Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, West Bengal, Kerala, Uttarakhand, Himachal and Gujarat. The only saving grace for the Congress is that it won two (Indri and Gohana) of the three Assembly seats in Haryana.

More. Notwithstanding the tall claims made by the BSP and the Samajwadi Party in Karnataka, both Parties failed to make any impact and failed to  win even a single seat. Recall, the BSP had boasted of winning 15-20 seats and playing the role of a king maker, whereas the SP, led by former Chief Minister S Bangarappa, was hoping for a post-poll alliance with ‘like-minded parties’ to form the Government. Far from it, the SP had to bite the dust. Perhaps now it can consider a rapprochement with the Congress in the run-up to the General elections next year. Small parties too, such as Lok Parivartan, formed by IITians, which had put up a number of candidates in Bangalore and the Sarvodaya Karantaka Party, formed by farmers and Dalits were unable to open their account for the Vidhan Soudha.   

Meanwhile, the BJP is in an upbeat mood. It sees the Karnataka poll as a “turning point,” and as its campaign manager Arun Jaitley asserted “the victory has given a pan-India presence to the Party.” In fact, Karnataka has helped it create history. The BJP has its Government in South India, for the first time, without any crutches or a coalition partner, like it had the JD(S) in the previous election. Of the 224 seats, the BJP won 110, Congress 80 (up from 65), the JD(S) 28 and Independents 6. The Saffron Party has crossed the magic figure of 113 seats, a simple majority, by garnering the support of five of the six Independents, much to the chagrin of Deve Gowda, who tried hard to get the Congress to form a coalition Government. Now, it is for the 65-year-old former RSS worker, Chief Minister B S Yeddyurappa, to ensure that the BJP delivers, specially on issues like inflation and internal security. More importantly, he needs to ensure that his Government lasts its full term.      

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Gujjars Lay Siege In & Around Rajasthan

Yet to come to terms with the terrorists’ attacks a fortnight ago, Rajasthan is now literally under siege. This time it’s the Gujjar community which is playing havoc with the law and order situation in the BJP-led State. In the sixth day of their agitation for inclusion in the Scheduled Tribes (ST) category, hundreds of Gujjars, under the banner of Rajasthan Gurjjar Arakshan Sangharsg Samiti, have descended on the streets, railway tracks in the State and even parts of Delhi and UP. Both the Vasundhara Raje Government and the Centre have been put on high alert, with the latter rushing additional para-military personnel. So far, 41 Gujjars have been killed in police firing and hundreds arrested, but no solution appears in sight. The Gujjar leader Colonel Kirori Singh Bainsala has rejected the State Government’s offer of a Rs 282 crore special relief package. It seems to be now a tug-of-war between Raje and Bainsala. Will the Centre come to the rescue?

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Junoon In Kashmir

It was junoon alright, but of a different kind in the Kashmir Valley. A crowd of about 10,000 people, mostly youth, gathered at the Dal Lake, in Srinagar last Sunday. No, it was not to protest, but for the biggest musical concert held in two decades. The youth “rocked” to the rhythmic beats of Pakistan’s sufi band Junoon, which too had braved the terrorists’ threat. “Join us in a musical jehad for peace and ring the bells of harmony,” urged the band leader Salman Ahmad to the ecstatic crowds. The concert was organised by the South Asia Foundation (SAF) to mark the opening of the Institute of Kashmir Studies at the Kashmir University and attended by the Pakistani Human Rights Commission Chairman, SAF’s Pakistan chapter’s chairperson, the Union Minister for Water Resources Saifuddin Soz among others. Hope the event, will help defuse the hatred between Pakistan and India.

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Cong Strategy To Counter Mayawati

The Dalits in UP are soon to receive a bag full of goodies from the Centre. The UPA is all set to initiate a number of measures for Dalits, including a Pradhan Mantri Adarsh Gram Yojana on the lines Ambedkar villages in UP. All to stall the State Chief Minister Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party from eating into the Congress Dalit vote bank in several States. A 16-member committee of Ministers on Dalit Affairs, headed by Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee has recommended a revamp of the Bharat Nirman guidelines for the development of villages with over 40 per cent Dalit population. The new guidelines include: providing free uniforms, footwear and stationary to all SC children before pre-matric, additional Navodaya Vidyalays in districts with more than 20 per cent Dalit population, no fees for Dalit students enrolled in higher classes etc. The ball is now in Mayawati’s court. Let’s see what she has to offer now.

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Gun Licences for Women

Dacoit-infested Rewa district in Madhya Pradesh has come up with a novel idea of empowering its women. It has awarded gun licences for the first time to 19 of them, who were part of the village defence committee. At the same time, nine of these women got awards for keeping their villages clean. Guns, feels the District Collector would not only boost the confidence of women but also send a strong message to the dacoits that they will not be able to browbeat the women into submission. Additionally, with certain parts of Rewa and some areas bordering UP suffering from the dacoit menace, the police at times asks the village defence committees, which function under respective police stations, to accompany the raiding party as they know the local terrain. Clearly, Rewa women have shown the way! ---INFA

 
(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Round The States

New Delhi, 21 May 2008

Rajasthan Turns Tough

“THROW OUT ILLEGAL BANGLADESHIS”

By Insaf

Illegal migrants from Bangladesh have cast a long and sinister shadow across many States following the tragic recent serial blasts in Jaipur, suspected to be the handiwork of Bangladesh-based terror outfit HuJI. Deep concern is being felt not only at the Centre but in each State Capital. Immediate measures are being considered. For one, Rajasthan Chief Minister Vasundhra Raje has ordered throwing out all illegal migrants from the State. On Friday last, all District Collectors and SPs were told to scrutinize ration cards and voter identity cards with West Bengal addresses and verify their authenticity with the State Government. An estimated 20,000 Bangladeshi are suspected to be living illegally in Rajasthan, with the majority claiming to belong to Cooch Behar, North or South 24-Parganas in West Bengal. Raje is firm that the verification drill must be completed within a month.

In fact, the BJP Chief Minister has gone a step ahead of the Centre. In a chat with a leading editor, Raje claimed that the UPA Government wanted her Administration to round-up all illegal Bangladeshi migrants in the State and “put them in a transit camp.” The suggestion, said Raje was made by the Union Home Ministry last June in response to repeated letters from the State Government about deportation of the illegal Bangladeshis in the State. Besides, the Raje Government has revived its demand for approval of the Rajasthan Control of Organised Crime Bill (RCOCA) by the Centre or the reintroduction of the Prevention of Terrorism Act (POTA) to counter terrorism. She has also insisted that the Centre call a meeting of all Chief Ministers to discuss internal security, against the background of the total failure of the intelligence agencies in the recent blasts. It’s a different matter that now the security agencies are putting out alert after alert to nearly every city.  

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Meanwhile, even as the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has made a strong pitch for the setting up of a federal agency to deal with offences such as terrorism, following the Jaipur blasts, the Jammu & Kashmir Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad has advocated “a bullet for a bullet” approach. At a function on Sunday last in Punjab to disburse funds to terrorism-affected families, Azad was unambiguous: “How can you initiate talks with terrorists, who after attaining training from across the border, come to kill you. Either you have to kill him, otherwise you will get killed.”  In addition, the Chief Minister was of the opinion that the Centre may hold talks with Pakistan, but when it comes to terrorism there could be no tolerance. With terrorist organizations getting local support, Azad felt that the Governments of Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh & his own J&K should join hands and fight the menace unitedly.

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Typical Panchayat Poll In WB

The Panchayat poll in West Bengal appears to have lived up to its reputation --- of being the bloodiest local elections! The three-phase poll which ended on Monday last, has claimed 35 lives so far—one in the first phase, 10 in the second and 23 in the third phase. The two main rivals, the Congress and CPM in the week-long poll were embroiled in fierce battles, with cadres unabashedly resorting to firing and hurling crude bombs. Other parties involved included the Trinamool Congress, RSP and Forward Bloc. Absurd as it may sound, the IG, law and order, considered the elections a “success” from the security point of view as “the death toll was below 40 compared to the 2003 election in which 74 people lost their lives”! However, local politicians expect the picture to be no different and that the toll may exceed past figures, with post-poll violence a near-certainty. Evidently, with huge inflow of money into the three-tier system, every village has now assumed great importance.                                

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Badal Exposes Bhattal

The outcome of the Shiromani Akali Dal- Congress spat over the recent Panchayat elections held in Punjab is worth watching out for. Following victory, an upbeat Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal has thrown another challenge to the State Congress. Stop doing stunts and resorting to cheap publicity, he told PCC Chief Rajinder Kaur Bhattal. The latter along with 41 MLAs is said to have handed in their resignations to Party President Sonia Gandhi and are demanding President’s rule. Their reason: the polls 324 members of 20 zila parishads and 141 members of panchayat samitis in 12,705 villages held  on 12 May was marred by violence allegedly by SAD cadres. Two persons including a Congress worker was killed. Ridiculing Bhattal’s move as cheap publicity, Badal has dared the Congress leadership to forward the MLAs’ resignation to the Vidhan Sabha Speaker. After all, “Stuntmanship is no substitute for statesmanship,” said Badal. Will the Congress MLAs heed?   

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Militant Violence Affects NE

Militant violence in Assam’s north Cachar Hills has had a cascading affect on three North-Eastern States of Tripura, Mizoram and Manipur. The States have been cut off from the rest of the country for nine days, following the North-East Frontier Railway suspending all trains that pass through southern Assam and Tripura. The action by the Railways came after militants killed 13 workers and kidnapped an engineer early this week. Construction firms stopped work and an estimated 3,500 workers who were engaged by private firms for laying new tracks withdrew, fearing fresh militant attacks. So far 25 persons have been gunned down by militants in the district in the past week. Grain laden rail wagons are stranded and there is fear that if the situation is not brought under control, there will be food shortage in the region. The Congress-led Government in Assam and the Centre have been urged to take appropriate steps.  

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Ambulance Transports Money

There is a new ingenuity of carrying cash for contesting an election. Use ambulances to transport money and liquor, as did politicians in Bellary district, in the Karnataka Assembly poll! The Election Commission has booked three such cases. A BJP leader from Bellary, who runs a charitable trust, allegedly misused an ambulance owned by the trust for his campaigning. The modus operandi: a person would lie on the stretcher, with three or four women sitting around him, creating an impression that the ambulance was carrying a patient. The money and liquor was stacked on the floor and covered with metal plates. If stopped, the women would plead that the patient was critical and had to be rushed to the hospital. Nothing was suspected and it was quite simple. Till, rivals noticed the ambulance making frequent trips to Davanagree and Chitadurga. On inquiries with the hospital, they were told there was no such patient. Guess elections can make one creative! ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

DEFENCE NOTES

New Delhi, 2 June 2008

Firing On The LOC

PAK ARMY STILL CALLS SHOTS

By Col (Dr.) P. K. Vasudeva

(Prof International Relations, ICFAI Business School)

When the Kargil operation of the Pakistani military was launched in 1999, India and Pakistan were well on their way to ushering in a new phase of bilateral relations. At the time, the then Prime Minister Vajpayee’s Lahore “bus diplomacy” was on the point of bearing fruit and the peace process would have followed soon in the interest of both the countries.

It was at that precise juncture that Kargil occurred. As everyone knows, Kargil was a Pakistani military operation, with which Pakistani politicians had precious little to do. It was conceived and conducted by the then ambitious and power-hungry Pakistani Army Chief, General Pervez Musharraf, and as revealed later the then Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif himself was kept in the dark about it. This fact came to light only after the enemy was evicted from Kargil’s occupied posts.

However, the damage was done. Undoubtedly, Kargil put a long spoke in the wheel of “normalisation” of India-Pakistan relations.  So whoever engineered the military operation wanted — at that moment at least — to upset the Vajpayee-Nawaz Sharif applecart. Which, in fact, it did.

The Indian military could not have engineered Kargil, because it strictly abides by the stipulations of the Constitution. Thus, it could not have struck out on its own with the object of creating problems for the country’s Prime Minister and his policy.

The same cannot be said of the Pakistani military for reasons which are well-known the world over. Therefore, it stands to good reason to suggest that the top Pakistani military leadership did not like what was happening between New Delhi and Islamabad on the diplomatic front, which led it to engineer Kargil.

It is of course another matter that not long after Kargil, Nawaz Sharif himself had to go. He fell victim to the military establishment which replaced him with General Pervez Musharraf. Unfortunately, history is repeating itself. Presently too, the new Gilani-led Government is not stable and it is doubtful if the present coalition will survive. Already fissures have come to light.

Today, as far as public perception is concerned, President Musharraf is no longer in the ‘hot seat’ as it were, the politicians having “taken over”. Within the military itself, there has been some change. There is a new Army Chief.

But have things really changed in Pakistan today, as regards the politician-military divide? Seen differently, can one argue that the assassination of Benazir Bhutto has effectively moved the Pakistani military establishment to the second position? Have the recent elections, giving the civilian Pakistani society, led by its politicians, the power once again to call the shots?

Questions which have no easy answers. As it stands, the Gilani-led coalition Government has started showing cracks once again as Nawaz Sharif is threatening to withdraw his Party’s support of it. Primarily because the PPP Chief Asif Zardari is not ready to reinstate the ‘forcibly’ retired judges. Zardari seems to have joined hand with President Musharraf which holds dangerous signals --- of the Army coming back to power.

Significantly, the recent firing on the Line of Control (LoC) clearly suggests that nothing has changed in Pakistan as far as the power structure is concerned. The military continues to wield absolute power but is currently hiding behind the fig-leaf of the poll results which have, on the face of it, shifted the balance of power to the politicians.

The LoC firing cannot help the process of normalisation of relations between the two countries, just as Kargil did not in its day. The inference is that the Pakistani military is once again at work, telling the politicians that they really amount to nothing in the power structure of Pakistan’s society.

Moreover, by keeping the military pot boiling is Islamabad’s way of impressing on New Delhi that Pakistan is a force to reckon with. Further, whenever India test fires its Agni long range missiles Pakistan retaliates by test firing its Haft missiles. Islamabad’s signal is loud and clear: We also mean business.

More important is the extent of the hold, if any, which General Musharraf has on the Armed Forces, through his loyal lieutenants who still enjoy enormous clout in the military. The simple question is: Did Musharraf have any role to play in organising the LoC firing and sending infiltrators across the LoC to cause disturbance in Jaipur blasts and elsewhere in the country? The answer is yes.

Clearly, the Indian Armed Forces cannot lower its guard on its side of the LoC. It has to remain vigilant not only to ward off any untoward situation but also protect its positions on the LoC because the Pakistani military is capable of pulling of surprises as it did a la Kargil in 1999.

The Samba incident and subsequent firing is a live example of the type of adventurism the Pakistani Army is competent of launching. History is replete with such skirmishes before Islamabad launches actual operations.

The news of Musharraf leaving the country due to political pressure is a welcome sign but one has to wait and watch and keep our fingers crossed. ---- INFA

(Copyright India News & Feature Alliance)