Economic Highlights

New Delhi, 29 April 2024

New GovtMust Cut I-T

REBOOT PSUS FOR JOBS

By Shivai Sarkar 

Despite it being too early to discuss the Union budget to be presented in July, it is certain whichever combination comes back to power it would have to majorly review the February interim budget in view of the debates generated during the course of elections. 

The election is veering round more on economic issues than religion or the Ram temple, though in certain regions these remain potent issues and so too the brand Narendra Modi and Yogi Adityanath. A larger section is concerned of the core economy, unemployment, farmers issues, irrationally high prices, medical and health care costs, school and university fees, shooting costs of houses, high toll-jacked inflation and similar other issues. 

Even showcasing of Indian economy as the fifth largest economy is not being accepted as reality by a large section. The farmers and citizens wonder while cars and tractors are allowed to run for 40 years like aircraft across the world, why a pro-people government should in a tearing hurry to send these to junkyards in India, particularly when household debts are skyrocketing. The rural wisdom calls it weird and tries to locate the linkages of government functionaries with the car makers. 

Questions are also raised on the Rs 16.87 lakh crore debt repayment in 2024-25 budget. This effectively cuts the actual budget of Rs 47.65 lakh crore to about Rs 31 lakh crore. Repayment burden in 2025 is slated to be higher. The Opposition sharp angling on core economic issues is being rebutted by ruling combine by charging that if the opposition gets to power it would sell “mangalsutras” and delve into divisive politics. The Election Commission has issued warnings to the ruling party for its wry comments. 

Low voting in 190 constituencies in major states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Maharashtra raise concern among all parties. The voter is apathetic despite many moves by the Election Commission. Is that a reflection on governance? 

This has not put the issues on the backburner. According to RBI, inflation rise at 5.5 percent a year has shot beyond 55 percent in compounded terms causing huge rise in the prices. Nobody has got such a raise in their salaries, not even government employees. The new government would have to take drastic steps to bring down the prices of edible oil, food grains, vegetables, potato and onion as also school fees and expensive health care, milk and other commodities.People are unwilling to buy the argument that inflation is built into the system. They rather equate it with corporate electoral bond doles to parties. The government accepting the petrol prices are high, cut it by Rs 2 just before the polls. It has no impact on the voters’ psyche. 

The voter is not happy with the so-called demonstrative developments like demolition and construction of large office buildings, rail stations, rampant construction of roads or metro. Constructions devastate the hills of Himachal Pradesh, Kashmir, Uttarakhand and the NorthEast. Kisans who became millionaires overnight with acquisition of their land for roads are not happy for losing their livelihood. And most villagers rue the roads that divide their habitats and relationships for a road they can’t use without paying toll. It is a serious issue because the kisan also pays Rs 30 per litre petrol cess toll introduced with the promise of ending the toll. All these benefit bulk profiteers and least of jobs.

A new government has to initiate drastic changes and reorient policies. A major reason of the joblessness is attributed to ad hoc decisions. Such constructions erode government finance and build little asset. Southeast Asia tried it in late 1990s and got into trouble in 1997. It would be wise on the part of the new government to revive PSUs and ask the private sector to compete with them. It would create jobs, add to national economy and create a fair playground. 

People question rationale of parting a part of Indian Oil to a private giant or giving out ports to private players. At least one such port has become notorious for being smugglers’ den.The universities, IITs and government institutions have been given a mandate to raise tuition fees every year. The private ones hike far more. Schools and universities need financing by the government and education cost must be cut down. Congress promises apprenticeship to every graduate. Looks good but it is not practical. The scheme has failed a number of times. 

India’s overall exports fell by 8.1 per cent and exports to its free trade partners shrank by 18 percent in the first half of 2023. The country’s trade deficit ballooned to $78.2 billion in the last financial year. India’s export values across all commodities declined to $351 billion during April-January from $366 billion a year ago, underlining the impact of global economic slowdown and tightening of interest rates in Western countries. 

These numbers have emerged amid India’s push to sign free trade deals with the UK and the European Union. The International Monetary Fund says that global slowdown is on. Howsoever India projects its march to $5 trillion economy, it is not easy. The West becomes more protectionist and keen on imposing carbon tax. The West needs to protect its own bread. 

Lower productivity can result in reduced job creation within the manufacturing sector, leading to unemployment or underemployment. The International Labour Organisation finds low pay and wages as serious challenges.When productivity declines, the incentives for firms to invest in research and development or adopt new technologies diminish, leading to a slower pace of the manufacturing sector. 

But the challenge of rising household debt and falling savingscould weigh on long-term growth sustainability.The FDI flow is low at $ 17.96 billion. Despite a supposed buzzing market it has not risen much.The new government also has the challenge to cut personal income-tax rates from 39 percent to 22 percent in tune with the corporate tax. High taxations hit the purchasing capacity and concomitant market problems. 

In short, the new government has to stress on issues regarding taxes, education, health, livelihood, low tolls and better deal to farmers. Both manifestos of BJP and Congress speak of too many doles and caste related benefits. If the government can address the basic issues and make it one of the most affordable economies, India’s journey would be smooth.  It is a dream, if comes true it would be the most liveable country.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Round The States

New Delhi, 27 April 2024                   Banswara ‘Hate Speech’

EC NOTICE TO NADDA, NOT MODI!

By Insaf 

As Rajasthan goes to the polls among 13 States for 89 seats in the second phase of the 2024 battle, Banswara may go down in electoral history. Prime Minister Modi’s campaign speech in the city viewed as ‘malicious’, ‘divisive’, targeting a particular religious community, going  viral on social media, hitting headlines and editorials saying ‘No, Prime Minister’ et al, did get the Election Commission to break its silence, but its action remains hushed. Importantly, while it's for the first time it took cognisance of a complaint against a Prime Minister for violating the MCC, it’s also a first when it changes the rules of the game. It doesn’t issue a notice to Modi but to BJP President Nadda, seeking his response by Monday. The so-called blow is softened as it simultaneously issues a notice to Congress President Kharge on complaint filed by BJP alleging violation by him and Rahul Gandhi, for ‘creating linguistic and cultural divide.’ While it justifies its directives saying the party Presidents must bring to the notice of all his party star campaigners to set high standards of political discourse and observe provisions of MCC in letter and spirit and that campaign speeches made by those holding high positions have more serious consequences, there are few takers. Of course, Congress has given it a thumbs down saying the step is reflective of the ‘inhibition’ and ‘fear’ on Nirvachan Sadan’s part to act against the PM. 

Indeed, the Commission doesn’t name Modi, but its letter to Nadda contains the complaints filed by Congress, Left parties and civil society groups. So, the public needs to join the dots. What is of concern is a clear shift in EC’s standard response; it used to take up complaints against individuals, even ‘star campaigners’ and leaders. A former Election Commissioner is quoted to have said, the EC’s move is fraught. “If you issue a notice to a party for comments of a leader, how much of a room do you have to act against the leader?” And the next question would be if the party gives an unsatisfactory reply, what action will the Commission take against the party? The Opposition sees the EC’s stand as weak, taken under ‘public pressure’. But EC insists ‘it has taken a view that while individual star campaigners would continue to remain responsible for speeches made by them, the Commission will address party chiefs ‘on a case-to-case basis.’ Will it make BJP’s ‘star campaigner’ responsible, or let the dust settle down in the Banswara case? No need for a guessing game.

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Delhi’s New Victim

Delhi’s ongoing political tussle in an outside Tihar jail has a new victim. Elections to MCD’s posts of mayor and deputy mayor, to be held on Friday stand deferred. Lt Governor V K Saxena in a letter to Chief Secretary a day before said “These are peculiar and unprecedented circumstances where the serving Chief Minister (Arvind Kejriwal) is under judicial custody as an undertrial prisoner involving a corruption case and therefore cannot discharge his constitutionally obligated functions.” The appointment of a ‘presiding officer, he added couldn’t be made in the absence of inputs from CM, who is lodged in Tihar Jail, ‘coupled with the factum that the minister is making wild and baseless allegations…’ Therefore, incumbent Mayor and Dy Mayor will continue to hold their positions till elections can be held in terms of legal provisions. AAP predictably says it’s at ‘BJP’s behest, which doesn’t want a Dalit mayor; the Centre was hatching a conspiracy to halt these polls and oust AAP from MCD.’ In fact, it may be more than meets the eye— a step towards the big question whether a CM can constitutionally continue to run the government from jail!

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Surat Outcry

BJP’s Surat candidate Mukesh Dalal, being declared elected unopposed has raised a hornet’s nest. While the BJP sees it as first victory towards its goal of 400 plus seats, Congress and AAP who have an alliance in Gujarat have termed it as ‘match fixing’ The sequence of events are telling: Congress candidate’s  nomination is declared void as the four proposers names are said to be forged, the party’s ‘substitute’ candidate’s papers are invalidated and four  Independents, three from smaller parties and BSP candidate withdraw their nominations! “Our elections, our democracy, Ambedkar’s Constitution -- all are under a generational threat,” said a livid Congress and complained to EC alleging it was done by exerting “wrong and undue influence”. It demanded the poll process in that seat be restarted. It’s partner, AAP which did not put up a candidate put its demand that EC register a case against Congress candidate: either he be booked on charges of forgery or his proposers be booked for giving false declaration on oath. This would help to get to the bottom of this electoral scam. Sooner the better.   

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WB Gets On Offensive

A belligerent West Bengal government takes pot shots at the judiciary. “Illegal, gross injustice, a ploy by the BJP…”, are words chosen by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee in her reaction to the Calcutta High Court’s Monday order declaring ‘null and void’ all (25,753) appointments of teachers and non-teaching staff through State Level Selection Test-2016 (SLST) in government-sponsored and aided schools, and directing them to return their salaries with interest as well as asking state School Service Commission to initiate a fresh recruitment process. The division bench, set up on Supreme Court’s instructions, also ordered CBI to further probe the appointment process and submit a report within 3 months. Recall, former state education minister Partha Chatterjee and some functionaries, were arrested by CBI for alleged anomalies in recruitment, wherein over 23 lakh candidates had appeared for the test for 24,640 vacant posts. While the petitioners were thrilled, TMC leader Abhishek trashed the order saying “Just as we've heard of match-fixing in cricket, what is happening now is ‘fixing of orders’, a collaboration between a certain section of judiciary and BJP to inflict suffering on people…’ The government has petitioned the top court and even said it will continue to give wages to the staff till its verdict! Guess, TMC believes in the idiom: best defence is a good offense!

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Voting Akin to Attending Wedding!

Turning polling day into something like attending a wedding is Haryana’s way, among others to enthuse voters. The idea is of state CEO whose office shall be sending out an ‘invitation’, designed like a wedding card, to every family urging the voter not to forget to cast his/her vote. The invites, 50-lakh odd, will also have a voter slip and guidelines and booth level officials will receive the voters. Other measures include: posters at schools wherein kids are given a pamphlet to encourage their parents, neighbours to vote and a link on its website for successful kids to later upload selfies with parents; an c-VIGIL mobile app to keep a close watch on MCC violations and voters complaints shall be resolved in 100 minutes; an app ‘Voters-in-Queue’, shall provide information about the queue at polling centres so that they can go to vote as the crowd thins out. Will the concept get 75% voter turnout instead of 70.36% five years ago? Well, the CEO, like the bride’s family, will be waiting anxiously on d-day, May 25 for the baratis! ---INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Round The World

New Delhi, 26 April 2024

Indian Parliamentary Elections

REBUTTING WESTERN MEDIA

By Prof. (Dr.) D.K. Giri

(Secretary General, Assn for Democratic Socialism) 

Indian elections are seldom influenced by international issues or reactions. But this time around, there is quite a bit of engagement with the western media and international institutions especially by India’s External Affairs Minister (EAM) S. Jaishankar. The EAM, coming from the Upper House, is not fighting the current elections but is stoutly defending India’s electoral process and its enduring democracy. 

He is doing it with a twin-strategy, one is to fulfil his mandate as the Foreign Minister, and second is to prevent the opposition parties from taking electoral advantage of the reactions from overseas. The silver lining in such debates on democracy is perhaps that India is taken more seriously than before by world powers. 

Let us note that there are three international agencies which occasionally assess democracies across the world and rank the countries in terms of their performance. One is the Economic Intelligence Unit of the leading media house of Britain, ‘The Economist Group’. It ranks democracies into three categories – fair, flawed and hybrid. India has been put as a flawed democracy. 

The second agency is V-Dem (Varieties of Democracy) located in Gothenburg, Sweden which had called India, “An electoral autocracy”. The third one is Freedom House, a non-profit organisation based in Washington D.C. which assesses maintenance of civil rights and liberties. It had ranked India ‘low’ in terms of upholding various freedoms. 

India’s ruling regime had reacted strongly to these observations. Now the Foreign Minister is engaging with these agencies and others on India’s democracy. In particular, he is extensively talking about the remarks made by spokesperson, Stephane Dujarric, for the UN Secretary General, “What we very much hope that in India, as in any country that is having elections that everyone’s rights are protected, including political and civil rights, and everyone is able to vote in an atmosphere that is free and fair”. 

The spokesperson said this in response to questions about political unrest in India ahead of the upcoming national elections, namely the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and the freezing of Congress Party’s bank accounts. Jaishankar strongly responded to these remarks, “I do not need the United Nations to tell me our elections should be free and fair. I have the people of India. The people of India will ensure that elections are free and fair. So, don’t worry about it.” 

Jaishankar was campaigning for his ministerial colleague and BJP candidate Rajeev Chandrashekhar in Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala’s capital. Addressing a forum of nationalist thinkers, Jaishankar tore into the western media, saying, “I get a lot of these noises from the western press. If they criticise our democracy, it is not because they lack information. It is because they think they are also political players in our elections”. 

Admittedly, there are different versions and standards of democracies across the world. One can list the major ones – representative democracy, people’s democracy, socialist democracy, guided democracy, basic democracy and direct democracy (this is no longer in practice). Therefore, the parameters of democracy for each country may vary. So, it is easy to criticise one democracy by the other. One may also disagree with the variables that constitute an evaluation matrix used by above-said agencies. The buzz is that India might come up with its own evaluation criteria for democracies in the Global South. 

At any rate, let us engage with at least seven points Jaishankar makes in reference to the remarks on Indian democracy. One, he says these are on our domestic politics which is going global. The global politics feels they must now interfere in our electoral process. They think they ought to know who rules India. It is an open secret that the world powers try to influence the government formation in other countries. The gossip is that rich countries in the Middle-East finance those who seek to destabilise democracies. Jaishankar’s complaint is not misplaced. 

Second, “the west actually thinks they are part of our electorate. I think it is time today that we disabuse them and the best way to do that is by our self-confidence”. This seems to be an overreaction. The west has a condescending attitude towards Global South. But their comments on our democracy need not be overplayed. 

Third, “we need to stand up to these kinds of attacks and criticisms, and rankings and reports because they will question everything”. This is a display of cynicism. We cannot dismiss all rankings and reports. We need to be sensitive to them and use them as self-introspection. 

Fourth, “they will question our election system, our EVM, our Election Commission even the weather”. No international agency has commented on any of these so far. It is the opposition parties which are raising these doubts and questions. The main agency ECI is responsible for our elections including the use of EVM. Only they can clear these doubts and answer these questions. 

Fifth, “one complaint is …. The BJP is so unfair, the BJP thinks it is going to win very big”. One can sympathise with EAM’s angst on this. It could be politics of envy. At the same time, it could also be considered as politics of arrogance as BJP initially claimed to cross 400 MPs in Lok Sabha. 

Sixth, the EAM said the decisions, this government will be making are not just for the five years, and will give India, its society, and the coming generations a very big vote of confidence. This is a statesman-like statement. The saying goes that a politician looks at next election whereas a statesman looks at the next generation. So, Jaishankar’s assertion is worthy of appreciation. 

Seventh, “it is the guarantee. The guarantee is an expression of confidence. It is an expression of confidence based on what we have delivered for the last ten years”. This is the politician Jaishankar speaking. Although, he is not a career politician, he has picked up some of the political lingua in the last ten years. 

Guarantee in the strict sense of the term is an irrevocable commitment. When you purchase a product in the market, there is a guarantee on it. If the product does not work, it is returnable. Will that work with the Prime Minister? If a certain promise is not delivered, will he resign? 

Coming back to the international criticism on our democracy and Jaishankar’s allegation of western press and powers wanting to influence our elections, it is not new. It has been happening one way or the other since elections began in India. Instead of being defensive, we should deepen our democracy to silence the critics. 

Any remark on democracy in any country is a matter of international concern. The corollary to democracy is solidarity within the country and across the world, of course while isolating the vested interests. India stands out in Asia for sustaining its democracy. Indians have proved time and again that they will not compromise on their democracy and diversity. ---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

REWIND

New Delhi, 25 April 2024

A NEW WAY TO COMBAT CORRUPTION

By Inder Jit

(Released on 10 October 1989) 

Corruption continues to grow --- and the corrupt continue to flourish and prosper. Each succeeding day spotlights some new scandal. Corruption is thus poised to become one of the major issues in the forthcoming poll battle, if not the principal issue. Not a few people in New Delhi disagree. They argue: “Most of our voters in the villages have not heard of Bofors, contrary to claims. In any case, few see anything wrong in the present day Rajas making money. Who else would? But those who have their ears to the ground are equally clear. The common man, they assert, is greatly agitated over mounting corruption, which has seeped down to the grassroots and is now pushing up prices. In fact, this point was boldly made at a recent meeting of the Congress-I Working Committee by a top State leader whose warning in regard to the 1977 poll proved prophetic. He told Mr. Rajiv Gandhi: “Bhrashtachar will be the main issue. We must have our answers.”

This raises a question which all of us and, more especially, those who swore loudly by Mahatma Gandhi last week need to ask: How would Bapu have reacted to the present state of corruption in the country and, equally importantly, to the present five-star life style and culture of the ruling classes? How would the Mahatma have tackled the problem of corruption? Alas, the thought does not seem to have occurred at all to those who made it a point to be seen at Raj Ghat (courtesy Doordarshan) or to speak at one meeting or another in Gandhian accents and idiom. Equally distressingly, few have come to give attention to another cancerous growth in India’s body politic: increasing criminalisation of public life. This raises one other question. What would Bapu have done to stop known criminals and convicts from taking India towards Pindari raj and destroying everything that the Father of the Nation and his chosen instrument, Nehru, espoused and stood for?

The Mahatma was fully conscious of the pitfalls ahead. Indeed, he not only advocated simple living for the Ministers and a salary of Rs 500/- p.m. but virtually outlined a code of conduct for them in his writings from 1937 to 1948. He wanted the Ministers to be watchful both of their personal and public conduct and said that “they have to be, like Ceaser’s wife, above suspicion in everything.” Offices must be held in the Government “with the spirit of service” without the slightest expectation of private gain for themselves or for their relations or friends. “There is beauty and an art in simplicity,” he said and added: “It does not require money to be neat, clean and dignified. Pomp and pageantry are often synonymous with vulgarity.” He wanted Ministership to be viewed as a crown of thorns, not one of jewels. Tragically, the Mahatma was snatched away before he could get free India’s new rulers to accept and practise his ideas.

Nehru and Lal Bahadur Shastri favoured a comprehensive code of democratic functioning and set up the Santhanam Committee on Prevention of Corruption, which submitted its report on March 31, 1964. In pursuance of this report, the Shastri Government announced in October 1964 a code for Central and State Ministers. This provided, inter alia, for furnishing to the Prime Minister/Chief Minister at the initial appointment and subsequently every year by a minister a declaration showing the details of the assets and liabilities and business interests of the minister and dependent relations of his family (wife or husband, minor children and dependent relations.) The details to be disclosed were to consist of particulars of all immovable property and the total approximate value of (a) shares and debentures (b) cash holding and (c) jewellery. But this has been implemented more in its breach. Few Ministers have cared to file any such return over the past decade.

The situation could have been transformed dramatically if Mr Rajiv Gandhi had accepted a suggestion made to him early in 1985 requiring himself and his Ministerial colleagues at the Centre and the Chief Minister and his team in the States as also all MPs and MLAs to declare their movable and immovable assets to Parliament and the State Assemblies respectively at the outset and annually thereafter. Benami assets were almost certain to be a problem. But this could be largely tackled by requiring the Ministers also to declare the assets of their sons, daughters, sons-in-law and other members of the family. True, Ministers at the Centre and in various States are already required to furnish a list of their assets to the Prime Minister or the Chief Minister respectively in accordance with the aforementioned code. But this has at best served the personal interest of the leader by enhancing his capacity to control and manipulate his colleagues and not the interest of the party or the nation.

Japan has succeeded where we in India have failed. It has eloquently and admirably shown the way of firmly tackling the ogre of public corruption. Two Prime Ministers have already had to quit -- Mr Tanaka in the shocking Lockheed affair and Mr Takeshita in the Recruit scandal. All this has been made possible by a firm commitment to certain minimum norms of public morality. At the same time, meaningful steps have been taken to ensure clean public life. Not many in India are aware that Japan gave itself in 1984 a new practice whereunder Cabinet and other Ministers in the Government are required to make public their assets in the form of land, houses, deposits, stocks and so on shortly after they take office. Since June this year, the Ministers are also required to declare the assets owned by their family members. Further, they are now required to disclose the amount of cash and other tangible assets held by them when they leave office!

Importantly, the declaration of assets by the Ministers in Japan is given wide publicity through a Government report. Some of the information made available by Kyodo news agency last week deserves to be shared with the reader. The Prime Minister, Mr Kaifu, and his wife hold assets worth 107 million yen (Rs 1.78 crores), placing him eighth among 21 Cabinet Ministers. (Mr Kaifu's house in Tokyo is now worth approximately 730 million yen, according to real estate sources. The Foreign Minister, Mr Nakayama, is the wealthiest member of Mr Kaifu's Cabinet. He and his family owned assets of over 666 million yen (Rs 7.16 crores) when he assumed the position on August 10 last. (The value of real estate and stock shares is calculated on the basis of official real estate register and face value of shares, which are substantially lower than the market prices.) The number of Ministers who reported more than 100 million yen in assets was eight, down from 12 in Uno’s Cabinet.

Can something be done at this stage? The answer is still a loud yes. Public opinion should require every candidate to declare his assets in a sworn affidavit and thereby come clean before the voters. Those failing to do so should be openly spurned and rejected. Some unscrupulous candidates might feel tempted to mislead. But this problem could be tackled by requiring every successful candidate to lay his affidavit on the table of the Lok Sabha. Public opinion could, in addition, require all the political parties to spell out their commitment to combating corruption. As proof of their bona fides, they should not only get their candidates to declare their assets but also to include in their respective poll manifestos a specific commitment to make three things obligatory for their Ministers: (i) declaration of assets on taking office; (ii) declaration to include assets owned by family members and (iii) declaration of cash and other assets at the time of leaving office.

Likewise, there is urgent need to get all the registered political parties to make certain specific commitments to prevent what is described as “criminalisation of politics.” All persons guilty of crimes and convicted so must be refused tickets. Equally, tickets should also be refused to those under a cloud in the public life for alleged crimes or otherwise. (Experience in Britain shows it is not always easy to get known criminals or corrupt publicmen convicted.) Provision should also be made for a candidate to secure more than half the votes polled to get elected. There should be provision too for a negative vote entitling a voter to cast his ballot against all the candidates listed. All in all, steps need to be taken in the next few weeks to combat both corruption and criminalisation of politics. Time is running out. Double talk and deception have been allowed to go on for too long. INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)